Gettin' Iggy With It: Up At The Crack of Ass To Talk About Trading One

"Hey, Cole Hamels!  What's that on your lip?"

Good afternoon, everyone!  This is Iggy Beartran, sister to Studious Metsimus roving reporter Joey Beartran and expert on all things Cole Hamels.  Normally, I like to sleep in on Saturdays, but upon hearing yesterday's news about the Phillies looking to trade their resident ass, I had to wake up early to discuss this news with our readers (assuming any of you are awake at this time).

On Friday, several reports had Hamels updating his no-trade clause, which currently includes 20 teams he cannot be dealt to without his consent (the Mets are on this list because he knows Citi Field is a "no ass zone").  Interim team president Pat Gillick acknowledged that he doesn't expect the Phillies to be competitive for at least three seasons.  Therefore, keeping a $24 million a year pitcher until the final years of his contract when he's in his mid-30s and not as tradeable - well, that would be (ahem) phoolish.  Almost as foolish as the team giving him a six-year, $144 million deal to begin with.  Not to mention Ryan Howard's albatross of a contract, which still has two years and $50 million left on it, plus a $10 million buyout for the 2017 season.

Let's look at what the Phillies' version of the "core four" has done over the past few years and see how tradeable those players are.

Jimmy Rollins

Jimmy Rollins is entering the final year of his four-year, $44 million contract.  His career numbers are excellent (479 doubles, 111 triples, 216 homers, 453 stolen bases, 1,325 runs scored), but his best seasons are behind him.  Way, way behind him.  Rollins has batted over .252 just once in the last six seasons and has a .318 on-base percentage and .397 slugging percentage over that same time period.  That means Ruben Tejada has a better chance of reaching base (Tejada has a .328 OBP in five seasons as a Met) and Daniel Murphy can outslug the former NL MVP (Murphy has a lifetime .419 slugging percentage in six seasons despite never hitting more than 13 homers over a full season).

Oh, and did I mention that Rollins has made the third-most outs in the National League since 2009?  I didn't?  Well, I am now.  In fact, let's compare him to some of those other "out-makers".

Player	Outs Made	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Hunter Pence	2812	2009	2014	26-31	953	4056	3701	537	1042	183	143	537	.282	.338	.464	.803
Brandon Phillips	2703	2009	2014	28-33	877	3794	3468	482	960	180	100	470	.277	.326	.424	.750
Jimmy Rollins	2625	2009	2014	30-35	839	3724	3359	480	845	172	91	343	.252	.318	.397	.714
Justin Upton	2510	2009	2014	21-26	883	3745	3291	540	919	181	147	482	.279	.357	.482	.839

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/25/2014.

From 2009 to 2014, the top four out-makers in the National League include Hunter Pence, Brandon Phillips, Justin Upton and Rollins.  Rollins has put himself on this list despite playing the fewest games of the foursome and having the fewest plate appearances, at-bats, runs scored, hits, doubles, homers and runs batted in.  He also has the lowest batting average (by far), on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS.  And most importantly, Rollins is the oldest player in the out-making firm of Pence, Phillips, Upton and Rollins.

If any team wants a soon-to-be 36-year-old shortstop who can learn a thing or two about reaching base from Ruben Tejada and slugging from Daniel Murphy, and who's only consistent about one thing at his advanced age - making outs - then Rollins is the man that team should target.  The bottom line is that Rollins is practically untradeable, especially if his decline continues in 2015.

Ryan Howard

Ryan Howard was once known for being one of the most feared hitters in the league, averaging 44 HR and 133 RBI from 2006 to 2011.  But beginning in 2012 (the first season of his five-year, $125 million contract), Howard has been known for a few "s"-words - strikeouts, Subway sandwiches and suckitude.

Over the past three seasons, Howard has averaged 101 games played per year due to an assortment of injuries, but that hasn't stopped him from striking out at an alarming rate.  Howard has whiffed 128 times per season since 2012 despite missing 182 games.  He has also averaged 16 homers and 65 RBI per year since 2012, and hit just 23 homers in 2014 despite being healthy all season (153 games played).  Howard had a career-low .380 slugging percentage in 2014 and led the majors in strikeouts with 190.  That's what $25 million a year buys the Phillies these days.

But hey, at least that kind of green can buy Howard all the Subway sandwiches he can eat (or are those called hoagies in Philadelphia?).

(GIF courtesy of Bill Baer at Crashburn Alley)

Chase Utley

In 2014, Chase Utley played 150+ games for the first time since 2009, but his final numbers were nowhere near what he produced in the Phillies' last pennant-winning season.  In 2009, Utley produced a .282/.397/.508 slash line, hit 31 homers (his third 30-homer campaign) and set new career highs with 23 stolen bases and 88 walks.  Five years later, Utley's first injury-free season since 2009 saw him produce a .270/.339/.407 slash line, 11 home runs, 10 stolen bases and just 53 walks.

Looking at Utley's five-year peak from 2005 to 2009 and comparing that to his last five years shows that Utley is a shadow of his former self.

• 2005-09: 151 games, .301/.388/.535, 39 doubles, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 111 runs scored
• 2010-14: 117 games, .270/.355/.435, 23 doubles, 13 HR, 60 RBI, 65 runs scored

Because of Utley's injury-free season in 2014, his $10 million salary in 2015 jumps up to $15 million, as there was a clause in his contract that guaranteed the 50% increase if he did not spend time on the disabled list with a knee injury in 2014.  A similar campaign will cause a $15 million option to kick in for 2016.  The same option applies to the 2017 and 2018 seasons.  Utley will earn $15 million per year if he collects 500 or more plate appearances in his previous campaign.  For the record, Utley played in 115 games in 2010 and 131 games in 2013, but still reached 500 plate appearances in both seasons.  In other words, the Phillies might be rooting for a long stint on the disabled list for their second baseman just to get out of a contract that could pay Utley $60 million between now and his age 39 season in 2018.

How are the Phillies going to be able to trade a guy who hasn't had a great season since 2009 to a team that would have to pay him top dollar if he stays on the field?  Utley's staying, for better or for worse.  Probably for worse.

Cole Hamels

And that brings us back to Cole Hamels.  The smiling ass still has four years and $96 million left on a contract that will pay him until he's 34, which means he'll be younger at the end of the deal than Rollins, Howard and Utley are right now.

As much as Hamels sucks against the Mets (ha, ha!), he is very good against everyone else.  In 2014, Hamels produced a career-best 2.46 ERA, reaching 200 innings for the sixth time in seven seasons.  Over the last five years, Hamels has averaged a 3.00 ERA, 1.119 WHIP and 204 strikeouts per season.  He is one of six pitchers to have 1,000 or more strikeouts since 2010.  The others are Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and David Price.  You probably recognize those names as pitchers who have won the Cy Young Award.  In fact, there are only three pitchers in all of baseball who have produced an ERA of 3.00 or lower, a WHIP not exceeding 1.12 and 1,000 strikeouts over the last five seasons.  Those pitchers are Kershaw, Hernandez and Hamels.

In other words, Cole Hamels might be an ass, but he's a mighty fine ass.

And this is a mighty fine picture of Cole Hamels.

Cole Hamels is just 30 years old (he'll be 31 in December).  Unlike his older homegrown teammates, Hamels is still quite productive, meaning he's actually earning his exorbitant salary.  But all of his quality starts have done little to help the Phillies win.  Over the last two seasons, Hamels has allowed two runs or fewer in 39 starts.  The Phillies lost 18 of those games.

Here is a list of every pitcher since 1901 who did not reach double digits in victories during a year in which he made at least 30 starts and produced a sub-2.50 ERA.

Player	Year	ERA	GS	W	Age	Tm	Lg	L	W-L%	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cole Hamels	2014	2.46	30	9	30	PHI	NL	9	.500	204.2	176	60	56	59	198	.235	.296	.345	.641

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/25/2014.

Not exactly a long list, is it?  In fact, since the advent of divisional play in 1969, only two pitchers have come close to matching what Hamels did, and both names might look familiar to fans of National League baseball in New York.

Player	Year	ERA	GS	W	Age	Tm	Lg	L	W-L%	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cole Hamels	2014	2.46	30	9	30	PHI	NL	9	.500	204.2	176	60	56	59	198	.235	.296	.345	.641
Matt Harvey	2013	2.27	26	9	24	NYM	NL	5	.643	178.1	135	46	45	31	191	.209	.248	.282	.530
Craig Swan	1978	2.43	28	9	27	NYM	NL	6	.600	207.1	164	62	56	58	125	.219	.275	.321	.597

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/25/2014.

Both Craig Swan and Matt Harvey failed to reach ten victories in their outstanding seasons, but each pitcher had a sub-2.50 ERA.  However, unlike Hamels, who made 30 starts in 2014, Swan and Harvey started 28 and 26 games, respectively, leaving Hamels all by his lonesome in the 30-start, 2.50-or-under-ERA, single-digit-victory club.

Imagine what Hamels could do for a team that, you know, actually scores runs.  It would behoove the Phillies to trade Hamels now, while he's still in his prime and is still putting up All-Star numbers.

Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Cole Hamels are the Phillies' version of the "core four", as the quartet was originally drafted by Philadelphia and have spent a combined 47 seasons in the city of Brotherly Love.  But Rollins, Howard and Utley are all past their prime years and are playing like it.  Hamels is not.

"We're not amused that Iggy Beartran thinks we're past out prime." (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

For years, Cole Hamels has never endeared himself to Mets fans.  From calling the Mets chokers following the Phillies' 2008 championship season to costing R.A. Dickey a chance to toss the team's first no-hitter in 2010, Hamels has been the textbook definition of an ass.

During the 2009 World Series against the Yankees, Hamels admitted that he couldn't wait to go home while his teammates were trying to win a second championship.  If he wants to win more games, perhaps home for Hamels should be in a city that doesn't serve up steaks on a hoagie or poorly-timed quotes from its star pitcher.

Escaping from Philadelphia can help both the Phillies on a team level and Cole Hamels on a personal level.  Hopefully, if Hamels does get traded, it's to a team that has the Mets on its schedule.  That 8-14 career mark versus New York needs a few more 'L's on it.

Phillies Tell Their Manager To Get The Fuqua Out

"You can stop right there, Charlie.  I know your firing is totally Fuqua-ed up."

Charles Fuqua Manuel is the winningest manager in the 130-plus year history of the Philadelphia Phillies.  The team from the city of Brotherly Love never posted a losing record in any of Manuel's first eight seasons at the helm.  But with a 53-67 record through Thursday's games, Manuel was relieved of his duties by Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr.  His replacement on an interim basis will be Hall of Famer (and former Phillies draft pick) Ryne Sandberg.

At Studious Metsimus, we find it sacrilegious to defend anyone who is (or was) employed by the team with the most losses in baseball history.  However, we do feel for Manuel for losing his job over something that's not his fault.

Did Charlie Manuel give Ryan Howard a five-year, $125 million contract extension?  Howard has combined to produce 25 homers and 99 RBI in the first two years of his deal.  The first baseman has also struggled to stay healthy since he started collecting the big bucks.

Was Charlie Manuel responsible for signing Roy Halladay to a three-year, $60 million extension?   Halladay's wins have dropped from 19 to 11 to 2 since 2011, while his ERA his risen from 2.35 to 4.49 to 8.65 over the same time period.

What about Cole Hamels' seven-year, $153 million deal?  Did Charlie Manuel have anything to do with giving that contract to a pitcher who is currently leading the league in losses and is posting his highest ERA and WHIP since 2009?

And although Cliff Lee (five years, $120 million), Jonathan Papelbon (four years, $50 million) and Jimmy Rollins (three years, $33 million) have all been reasonably productive, they will all be expected to continue their production at a high rate of pay until they're in their mid-to-late thirties.

Charlie Manuel didn't give these players eight and nine-figure deals.  Ruben Amaro, Jr. did.  It was Amaro who made the trades, free agent signings and re-signings that are now coming back to bite the team.  And it was Amaro who had the dubious distinction of removing the manager, because of course, it was the manager's fault that players past their prime got injured or stopped producing at the same rate they did when they were in their 20s.

As Mets fans, we're quite pleased that the Phillies have gone from the self-proclaimed team to beat in 2007 to a team that gets beaten quite often in 2013.  And if the Phillies continue to expect thirty-somethings to play like twenty-somethings, they're going to remain behind the Mets in the division standings for years to come.

Manuel did a fantastic job with the Phillies, leading them to five division titles, two pennants and a World Series championship.  But he did this with players who were in their prime.  Those players are now past their prime, and the general manager who put and kept the team together has done nothing to make the team any younger.  Oh wait.  He did.  He replaced the winningest manager in franchise history with an interim manager who is fifteen years his junior.  Our bad.

Charles Fuqua Manuel is out as Phillies manager after nearly nine years at the helm.  It's too bad for Philadelphia that the man who should have lost his job for the small fortune he doled out to aging players is still collecting a paycheck of his own.

Not Everyone Ages Gracefully - Just Ask The Phillies

Photo by Howard Smith/USA Today

Prior to the 2007 campaign, Phillies’ shortstop Jimmy Rollins declared his squad “the team to beat” in the National League East.  Rollins made his claim mere months after the Mets won the division by a dozen games and finished with the best regular season record in the National League.

Rollins’ statement proved to be prophetic, as the Phillies took home the 2007 NL East flag on the season’s final day.  Philadelphia’s successful run atop the division lasted half a decade, with the team winning five NL East crowns, two National League pennants and the 2008 World Series championship.

But in 2012, everything came crashing down for the Phillies.  Philadelphia missed the playoffs for the first time since 2006, finishing the year with an 81-81 record, their worst full-season showing since they went 80-81 in 2002.

Chase Utley and Ryan Howard combined to miss 170 games for the Phillies.  Rollins and Shane Victorino (who was traded to Los Angeles prior to the trade deadline) hit .250 and .261, respectively.  Cliff Lee won one more game all year than R.A. Dickey won in the month of June alone.  And Roy Halladay finished the year with his highest ERA since 2000.

Why did the Phillies fail last year while teams like the Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants didn’t?  It’s all in the birth certificates.

When the Phillies began their run of excellence in 2007, the core of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels were all in their 20s.  They were either already in their prime (which usually begins around age 27) or about to enter their most productive years.

But once 2012 rolled around, the same players who helped the Phillies achieve sustained greatness not seen in the city of Brotherly Love since the late ‘70s and early ‘80s had all entered their early-to-mid 30s.  In addition, Philadelphia added pieces to the team in Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee who were supposed to keep the team atop the NL East standings for years to come.  Halladay and Lee started off well in Philly but both suffered through subpar seasons in 2012.  Not coincidentally, both Halladay and Lee were in their mid-thirties in 2012.

To acquire the pieces that were supposed to complement the core that’s been in place since 2007, the Phillies have parted ways with a number of prospects – prospects that could have been the Rollinses, Utleys and Howards of the next generation.  Putting it simply, the Phillies are old and they’re not getting any younger.  (Welcome aboard, Michael Young!  You’ll fit right in!)

The Mets were also an old team in 2006.  Pedro Martinez and Orlando “The Dookie” Hernandez were in their mid-to-late 30s as October rolled around.  Cliff Floyd was just two months away from turning 34.  Neither player got to experience that month the way Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca and Billy Wagner did, as Martinez and Hernandez were both disabled for the Mets’ shorter-than-expected playoff run and Floyd should have been disabled.  (And for the record, Delgado, Lo Duca and Wagner were also well into their 30s, while Beltran was six months away from blowing out 30 candles on his cake.)

In 2007 and 2008, the Mets’ thirty-somethings continued to get older and had a new forty-something to share disabled list war stories with in Moises Alou.  Not surprisingly, the aging veterans on the Mets were lapped by the much younger Jimmy Rollins and the rest of his "team to beat" in both seasons.

Now it’s 2013.  The defending World Series champion Giants have young stars at many key positions.  Players like Buster Posey, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Pablo Sandoval (and don’t forget Tim Lincecum) are all in their 20s and hope to lead the Giants to more titles.  The Washington Nationals, who won a league-high 98 games in 2012, are even younger than the Giants, with the under-30 core of Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Bryce Harper and Ian Desmond all contributing in 2013.  And the Oakland A's and Baltimore Orioles are using youth to make another postseason push after surprising all of baseball in 2012.

The Mets are trying to shed their old man image that led to heartbreak and disappointment in 2006, 2007 and 2008.  Players like Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud are either currently contributing to the team’s success or waiting in the wings to contribute.  As the team gets younger, the brighter future promised to us by the front office is getting closer and closer to the horizon.

The Phillies fielded a young team in 2007 that became a five-year dynasty in the NL East.  But Philadelphia did not replenish their youth when their core players began to show signs of getting older and becoming more fragile.  Instead, they gave multi-year deals to their fading stars (five years to Ryan Howard, three years to Jimmy Rollins) and acquired players who are now closer to retirement than they are to their arbitration years (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon, Michael Young).

Matt Harvey faced Roy Halladay at Citizens Bank Park back on April 8, and there was no question who the better pitcher was.  Halladay might have been a part of the Phillies’ past successes, but success has now passed him by.  Meanwhile, Harvey is pitching the way Halladay used to pitch before his age caught up to him.

Hall of Fame pitcher Satchel Paige once said “don’t look back – something might be gaining on you.”  The Phillies have looked back, and all they see is a youthful Mets squad that's gunning to pass them and stay ahead of them for years to come.  (The Phillies have currently lost eight consecutive games and are just a game and a half ahead of the Mets in the standings.)  The Mets don’t have any reason to look behind them.  Their road to a successful future is right in front of them.  And they intend to drive down that road long after the Phillies have run out of gas.

Not everyone ages gracefully.  The Mets learned that the hard way in 2006, 2007 and 2008.  The Phillies are finding that out for themselves right now.
 

Mets vs. Phillies: The Battle For Turd Place

The New York Mets.  The Philadelphia Phillies.  As recently as four years ago, both teams were competing for the top spot in the National League East.  Now they're both far behind the first place Nationals and the second place Braves, just barely ahead of Ozzie Guillen and his Merry Marlins, who are 20,000 leagues under the East.

The Mets and Phillies will be meeting this week in a three-game series beginning tonight at Citizens Bank Park in a series that will be a battle for third place in the division.  Battle for third place?  With the way these two teams have played in 2012, it's more like a battle for "turd" place.

The Mets started off well this year.  At the one-third point of the season, they were a season-high eight games over .500.  As late as July 7, they were 9½ games ahead of the then-last place Phillies in the NL East.  But since then, the Mets have gone 13-30 while the Phillies are 24-18.  After spending the majority of the season chasing the Mets, Philadelphia is now two games ahead of New York.

The Phillies have passed the Mets despite:

• Trading Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, Jim Thome, Joe Blanton and Chad Qualls in an in-season cost-cutting measure (otherwise known as raising the white flag).

• Chase Utley and Ryan Howard missing a combined 165 games, then both hitting under .250 in the games they have participated in.

• Jimmy Rollins being the only regular to play just about every day, but hitting under .250 and barely reaching base at a .300 clip.

• A horrible bullpen with an ERA of 4.38, a WHIP of 1.32, and a Bastardo.

• Cliff Lee winning three more games than Cliff Clavin at a salary that's far more than that of your average postal worker (although Mr. Clavin could probably tell you the origin of Mr. Lee's middle name of Phifer).

With that combination of misfortune and spending a fortune on misses, the Phillies should be buried in the depths of the division.  Yet not only are they in the middle of the division, they're ahead of the Mets, who have the league's top winner and strikeout leader in R.A. Dickey, two corner infielders that have combined for 41 HR and 146 RBI, and a year-long penchant for scoring runs with two outs (239 two-out runs, as opposed to 295 in all other situations).

Despite the Mets' recent woes, they have defeated the Phillies eight times in twelve head-to-head matchups this season, easily their best record against any NL East opponent.  (The Mets are a combined 14-22 against the other three teams in the division, not winning more than five games against any of them.)  They need to continue playing well against the Phillies this week to reclaim third place.

Games between the Mets and Phillies used to have so much riding on them.  Now with the two teams playing sub-.500 ball, the only thing they're riding out is the schedule.  It's a battle for third place in the city of Brotherly Love.  Hope it's not a stinker.

Ryan Howard Fears Oliver Perez

I know this is a site for Mets fans.  I also know Ryan Howard is a Phillie and Oliver Perez still gives Mets fans nightmares even though he is a continent away in Seattle.  But I needed a distraction from last night's debacle, when Johan Santana went from being No-Han to retiring No One (give or take four batters).  So today I'm focusing on a little tidbit I found in the Sunday New York Times.

In Joe Brescia's weekly "30 Seconds..." piece, he interviewed Ryan Howard, asking him various questions about his health, his performance on the field and the state of the Phillies.  (In case you hadn't noticed, the sellout streak is over at Citizens Bank Park.  Phillies fans will tell you they're just getting ready for the Eagles' upcoming season, but methinks the NL East standings have something to do with the dearly departed streak.)

One question at the end of the interview caught my eye.  The Phillies' slugger was asked which pitcher was the toughest he ever faced.  His answer was Oliver Perez.

Before you chuckle at Ryan Howard's inability to hit a pitcher who allowed everyone and their mothers to reach base during the latter half of his tenure in New York, take a look at how Perez has fared against the Subway sandwich shill.

In 25 career at-bats against Perez, Howard has collected only three hits, batting .120 against the former Mets left-handed pariah ... I mean, pitcher.  Perez has had no trouble finding the plate against Howard, walking him twice while striking him out 14 times.  That's 14 times in 25 official at-bats.  Even Jason Bay doesn't strike out that often.

Of course, this season Howard must think he's facing Oliver Perez every time he comes to the plate.  In 100 at-bats following his return from the painful groundout that wiped out the Phillies' 2011 campaign and the first three months of his 2012 season, Howard has struck out 40 times while drawing only ten walks.  He also sees the dinner plate more than he does home plate, as Howard has scored ten runs, seven of which came when he drove himself in by hitting the ball out of the yard.

Meanwhile, Oliver Perez has taken what he learned from facing Ryan Howard and has become a serviceable reliever in Seattle.  In 20 games for the Mariners, Perez has a low 2.00 ERA in 18 innings, striking out 18 and walking only five.  Compare that to what El Perez-idente did in 2009 for the Mets, when he made 14 starts and walked at least five in half of those starts.

Ryan Howard is a large hulk of a man.  Pitchers should be afraid of him, not the other way around.  But Howard fears Oliver Perez the way Mets fans feared the bullpen phone ringing whenever Perez was warming up.  It just goes to show that you can't script baseball, especially if Ryan Howard and Oliver Perez are two of your main characters.