Why All The Interest In Russell Martin?

It's Day One of the Late Fall Meetings and there have already been a number of moves made. Mark Reynolds was traded from Arizona to Baltimore, taking his Citi Field home run launcher with him. The Adrian Gonzalez trade to Boston (and subsequent contract extension) was finalized. Also, former Met Melvin Mora signed a one-year deal with Arizona.

What have the Mets done? They signed two players to minor league deals.

Although Sandy Alderson has said that the Mets will not make many moves in the offseason, they have developed an interest in Dodger catcher Russell Martin. As tweeted by Buster Olney, the Mets were one of four teams that asked to review Martin's medical information (Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays were the others).

Martin would more than likely sign a one-year deal with the team he chooses and the Mets would use him in the event that Josh Thole has difficulty handling the everyday catching duties.

But why Russell Martin? Although he is just now entering his prime (Martin will be 28 in February), his production has slipped considerably since his breakout 2007 season, as seen below:

• 2007: .293, 19 HR, 87 RBI, 87 runs, 21 SB, 32 doubles
• 2008: .280, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 87 runs, 18 SB, 25 doubles
• 2009: .250, 7 HR, 53 RBI, 63 runs, 11 SB, 19 doubles
• 2010: .248, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 45 runs, 6 SB, 13 doubles

From 2007-2009, Martin had over 500 at-bats each season, which decreased to 331 in 2010. Still, players in their mid-to-late 20s don't usually start producing less unless something is wrong with them.

Russell Martin is clearly a shadow of the player he used to be. Yet the Mets are still looking into the possibility of bringing him over to New York.

Is it because the Mets are obsessed with signing or trading for every former Dodger catcher (Mike Piazza in 1998, Paul Lo Duca in 2006)? Is it because they miss Frenchy so much that they feel the need to replace him with a French Canadian?

No, my friends. If we take a deeper look into the stats, we might be able to uncover the reasons as to why Sandy Alderson and the Mets appear to be going head over heels over Russell Martin.

Although Martin's last four seasons have produced a .293, .280, .250 and .248 batting average, his on-base percentages in those years have been .374, .385, .352 and .347. In fact, over his five-year career in the big leagues, Martin's OBP is an above-average .365. The Mets' team OBP in 2010 was .314 and no regular player had an on-base percentage above .354 (David Wright). Josh Thole, who only picked up 202 at-bats, was the only Met with a higher on-base percentage than David Wright, but his .357 OBP was still lower than Martin's career percentage.

So although Russell Martin's offensive production has gone down, he is still finding ways to get on base. As we know, Sandy Alderson and his Merry Men LOOOOOOOOOOVE guys who can get on base, and since Alderson has stated that he's not sure if Thole can be a #1 catcher, a player like Russell Martin would satisfy his need for another catcher and fulfill his dream to acquire every player who knows the meaning of "ball four".

The Russell Martin deal might not happen, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't be a good fit for the Mets. If other teams become hesitant to sign him, you never know. He may just be in Flushing next year.

Out With The Old; In With Chris Young

According to a tweet by Buster Olney, the Mets might be close to signing oft-injured Padres pitcher Chris Young. Being that Sandy Alderson and Paul DePodesta both worked for the Padres during Young's time there, there may something to this deal.

There is no question that the 31-year-old Young is talented. Since breaking into the major leagues in 2004 with the Texas Rangers, Young has made 135 starts, holding opposing hitters to a .220 batting average.

Despite the fact that Young can occasionally go through bouts of wildness, he has still limited his opponents to a .299 career on-base percentage. Basically, he will retire seven of every ten batters he faces. That type of success rate leads to fewer big innings by the opposing team.

There is one drawback to having Chris Young in your starting rotation. His 6'10" frame is very fragile.

From 2005-2007, Young made at least 30 starts each season. As you can see below, in each season he lowered his ERA and WHIP, while striking out more batters.

• 2005: 31 starts, 4.26 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 137 Ks
• 2006: 31 starts, 3.46 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 164 Ks
• 2007: 30 starts, 3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 167 Ks

Then 2008 came along and the brittle Chris Young was born. From his third consecutive 30+ start season in 2007, he went down to 18 starts in 2008 to 14 starts in 2009 to only four starts this past season.

His walks have also been on the rise as he has struggled through these annual injuries. If Young is healthy (and that's a BIG if), he can be a fine acquisition for the Mets.

Young is known as a fly ball pitcher, which is perfect for a pitcher's ballpark such as Citi Field. Having pitched most of his career for the San Diego Padres in cavernous Petco Park, Young knows how to pitch to his park's dimensions.

In 45 career starts at Petco Park, Young maintained an exceptional 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, striking out nearly a batter per inning (250 Ks in 265.1 innings). He also held opponents to a .205 batting average and .283 on-base percentage. Pitching half his games at Citi Field could lead to similar results.

As long as the Mets don't do something stupid and sign him to a three-year, $36 million contract, Young could be a good fit. He would need to prove he is healthy, but if he does, a one-year, incentive-laden deal would not be uncalled for.

The Marlins signed Javier Vazquez to a one-year, $7 million contract. The Dodgers signed Jon Garland to a one-year, $5 million contract. Both of those pitchers were healthy last season. The Mets should be able to sign Chris Young for less than that. He may be the most fragile of the three, but if he can stay on the mound, he may end up being the best bargain.

The 2006 Cardinals Cursed More Than Just The Mets

Do you see the scene to the left? Those are the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals just moments after winning Game 5 of the World Series, giving them their tenth World Series championship and first since 1982.

On their way to the championship, the Cardinals edged out the Astros to win the NL Central division title, the Padres in the NLDS, the Mets in the NLCS and the Tigers in the Fall Classic.

To Mets fans, their heartbreaking loss in Game 7 to St. Louis is all they remember from the 2006 postseason. It signified the beginning of the end of what was supposed to be an extended run of excellence for the Mets, after ending the Braves' streak of 14 consecutive division titles and cruising to the best regular season record in the National League.

After losing to the Cardinals in 2006, the Mets followed it up with two late-season collapses in 2007 and 2008. The opening of Citi Field in 2009 was the only highlight of an otherwise horrible season in which the Mets finished 70-92. The current 2010 season hasn't been much better, with the Mets virtually eliminated from playoff contention with a month of baseball still remaining.

But what about the other teams the Cardinals had to knock out on their way to the promised land? Mets fans might think they were the only team to be pooped on by the Redbirds in 2006, but they are not alone. In fact, every team the Cardinals eliminated that year has failed to return to the heights they once had since that fateful season.


The Cardinals finished the 2006 regular season with a mediocre 83-78 record. They edged out the second-place Houston Astros by a game and a half in the NL Central, eliminating them on the next-to-last day of the season. The previous year, the Astros had defeated the Cardinals in the NLCS to reach the World Series for the first time in franchise history.

Since the Cardinals knocked out the Astros in the 2006 division race, Houston hasn't sniffed the top of the NL Central, finishing 12 games behind the Cubs in 2007, 11 1/2 games behind the Cubs in 2008 and 17 games behind the Cardinals in 2009. This season, the Astros have a 64-72 record and stand 15 games behind the first-place Cincinnati Reds.

The Cardinals' division series opponent in 2006 was the San Diego Padres. After winning the NL West division title in 2005, the Padres repeated as division champions in 2006. However, the Cardinals took out the favored Padres in four games in the NLDS. What happened to the Padres after the 2006 NLDS should look familiar to the Mets and their fans.

The 2007 Padres were one strike away from winning the National League Wild Card berth, when on the next-to-last day of the season, Tony Gwynn, Jr. (son of Padres legend Tony Gwynn) hit an RBI triple to send the game into extra innings, a game the Padres eventually lost. The Padres lost the last game of the regular season as well, forcing a one-game playoff with the Colorado Rockies to decide the NL Wild Card winner. When Matt Holliday scored the winning run in the bottom of the 13th inning, the Rockies went to the playoffs and the Padres were the victim of a late-season collapse.


After defeating the Padres in the NLDS, the Cardinals played the heavily favored Mets in the NLCS. Let's just skip over that series on move on to the World Series.

In the 2006 World Series, the Cardinals played the American League champion Detroit Tigers. The last time those two teams met each other in the Fall Classic was in 1968, when the Tigers defeated the Cardinals in seven games. This time around, the results were different, with the Cardinals splitting the first two games in Detroit, then taking all three games at Busch Stadium, winning the World Series in five games.

Since falling to the Cardinals in 2006, the Tigers have been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball. After winning 95 games in 2006, the Tigers dropped to 88 wins in 2007, finishing second in the NL Central to the Cleveland Indians. They also finished six games behind the New York Yankees for the American League Wild Card berth. The Tigers then felt they needed to upgrade their offense for the 2008 season, putting together a team that baseball experts predicted would score 1,000 runs. Even ESPN's Buster Olney chimed in, saying:

"Justin Verlander might win 20 games with the staggering run support he is likely to receive, because there are days when he may allow six runs in five innings and still win by a touchdown; the Tigers may be the latest team to take a run at scoring 1,000 runs."

Well, the Tigers began the 2008 season by losing their first seven games. After 13 starts, Justin Verlander was 2-9, with a 5.05 ERA. The Tigers' vaunted offense failed to come anywhere near 1,000 runs, scoring only 821 times. The end result was a 74-88 record, good enough for last place in the NL Central.

The 2009 Tigers appeared to be on the verge of ending the "curse" imposed on the teams that were defeated by the Cardinals in 2006. The Tigers had been in first place for 146 days of the 2009 season. But after holding a three-game division lead over the Minnesota Twins with four games to play, the Tigers became the first team to blow such a lead when they lost the tiebreaker game to Minnesota at the Metrodome. Just like the Padres had lost their one-game playoff to the Rockies in 2007 in the bottom of the 13th inning, the Tigers also lost in the unlucky 13th, when Alexi Casilla's game-winning hit brought home ex-Met Carlos Gomez.

The 2010 season may have yet another collapse. The San Diego Padres, who owned the best record in the National League for most of the season, have now lost 10 consecutive games. Their chokehold on the NL West has loosened and the Giants and Rockies are now closing in on them in the standings, with the Giants standing one game out of first and the Rockies looming 4 1/2 games out, waiting to make their latest September run at the postseason.

So Mets fans, you're not alone in going through collapses and disappointing seasons since the end of the 2006 season. Astros fans have had no September games to be interested in since losing the division title to the Cardinals in 2006. Padres fans suffered through a collapse in 2007 and might be about to experience a similar collapse in 2010. The Tigers underachieved like no other team in 2008 and followed that up with a monumental collapse in 2009.

Since the Cardinals won the World Series in 2006, they have remained one of the best teams in the National League. They are the defending NL Central champions and are in the hunt this year for a postseason spot. But those who fell to them in 2006 haven't had similar success. The Curious Conundrum that is the Curse of the Cardinals is alive and well. The Mets and their fans have been infected by the Red Plague for years, but at least they can take solace in the fact that they're not alone.

Diff'rent Year, Diff'rent Gary?

By now, you're probably aware that the Mets acquired Gary Matthews, Jr. from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim yesterday for reliever Brian Stokes. Are you also aware that the Angels will be paying $21.5 million of the remaining $24 million left on Matthews' contract? The Mets will only be responsible for $2.5 million of Gary's salary.

Does this sound familiar to you? It should if you remember what the Mets did with another Gary before the 2009 season.

Just days before the curtain rose on the 2009 season, the Mets acquired Gary Sheffield from the Detroit Tigers, who had released him just three days earlier. The Tigers still owed him $14 million so the Mets were able to sign him for $400,000.

As a 39-year old with Detroit in 2008, Sheffield hit a career-low .225 in 418 at-bats. Despite being able to sign him for next to nothing, many so-called experts criticized the move, saying Sheffield was washed up and would be a cancer in the clubhouse.

Instead, due to various injuries suffered by 66.6% of the team (but I don't think that number has anything to do with it), Sheffield saw extended playing time. He raised his average from .225 in 2008 to .276. In only 268 at-bats (roughly half a season worth of ABs), he hit 10 HR (including his 500th career home run; see photo right) and collected 43 RBI. How's that for only 400,000 semolians?

So now we have another Gary on the team. The former Angel is expected to compete with the current Angel (Mr. Pagan) for the center field job while Carlos Beltran is recovering from his well-known top secret arthroscopic knee surgery.

Have you ever heard about those nameless executives and talent evaluators who always have something negative to say about players when asked for their opinions? Well, according to Buster Olney, one of them had this to say:

"Matthews is a player to be avoided. Slow bat. Declining range. And above all else, a player who wants to be a regular and will be an unhappy distraction in your clubhouse when he's not in the lineup every day."

That's funny. If you substitute Sheffield's name for Matthews, wasn't that the same thing being said about the O.G. (Original Gary) last April?

For the Studious Metsimus readers who aren't feeling this trade, all I am saying is give Matthews a chance. Carlos Beltran should only miss a few weeks of the season. The Mets also have Angel Pagan who can play center field. A slump by Matthews will not destroy the team's chances to finish in fourth place (until the Mets get some starting pitching help, Studious Metsimus should not be confused with Optimist Metsimus).

The Mets' annual pre-season Gary of The Year acquisition hasn't hurt them yet. For the money the Mets are paying Gary Matthews, Jr., I don't feel the need to trash this trade (but I reserve the right to do so later). Now if the Mets were to announce the acquisition of Gary Coleman before the beginning of the 2011 season, it'll be time for all Mets fans to say "What you talkin' 'bout, Wilpon?"