The Decline of Wright-ian Civilization

There's no arguing the facts.  David Wright is not the player he used to be.  (Photo by Nick Laham)

David Wright is in serious decline right now.  There's no other way to put it.  Since signing his eight-year, $138 million contract prior to the 2013 campaign, Wright has played in 233 games, batting .286 with 26 HR, 114 RBI, 111 runs scored and 23 stolen bases.  That's in nearly two full seasons of baseball, folks.  If you look at what Wright did in 2007 alone (.325, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 113 runs scored, 34 steals), it's quite clear that the Mets' third baseman has dropped off considerably at the plate.

In 2009, Wright's drop-off in the power department was attributed to the spaciousness of the newly-opened Citi Field.  Although Wright produced just 10 homers that season, he made up for it by batting .307.  He also smoked 39 doubles and stole 27 bags.  Five years later, Wright is having another powerless season (8 HR in 121 games through Friday), but he is not contributing in other facets of the game like he did in 2009.

Wright has just 26 doubles and no triples this year.  To put that in perspective, Wright has never completed a full season (min. 150 games played) with fewer than 36 doubles and he has yet to have a season (regardless of how many games he played) with nary a triple to his credit.  Wright's six steals in 2014 would also fall well short of his career-low over a full season.  The third sacker has never stolen fewer than 15 bases when he's played 150 or more games.  Even when he missed 60 games in 2011 with a stress fracture in his back, he still managed to swipe 13 bags.

For the year, Wright is batting .268 with 34 extra-base hits.  Only 26.4% of his 129 total hits have gone for extra bases.  Compare that to what he did in first ten seasons in the big leagues, when 38.0% of his hits were doubles, triples or homers.  In fact, in every season Wright has played at least 150 games, he's had a minimum of 64 extra-base hits.  He's barely halfway to that total now.  And he's only missed eight games this year, so barring injuries or an unexpected benching, Wright will play in at least 150 games in 2014 and come nowhere near his usual extra-base hit totals.

Now let's look at slugging percentage.  Rather, let's look at some of the slugging percentages put up by a few seemingly random big league hitters this year.  Then let's look at the guy listed at the bottom of the chart below.

Player	SLG	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB
Justin Turner	.448	253	223	37	71	15	1	4	29	5
Jose Altuve	.439	563	524	68	175	33	2	6	42	46
Brett Gardner	.439	533	460	77	125	18	7	15	52	19
Jose Reyes	.415	506	467	74	137	27	3	8	38	23
Coco Crisp	.405	401	341	57	88	20	3	8	42	16
Jacoby Ellsbury	.401	532	476	58	132	25	2	10	55	34
Denard Span	.399	539	491	76	147	34	6	1	25	27
Angel Pagan	.391	325	302	41	91	16	1	3	22	12
Billy Hamilton	.388	503	469	66	126	24	7	6	44	49
Kolten Wong	.388	327	304	39	75	10	3	9	33	17
Dee Gordon	.383	530	491	70	142	18	11	2	27	57
Rougned Odor	.379	295	272	25	69	9	5	5	27	2
Endy Chavez	.374	206	187	19	52	8	2	2	16	4
David Wright	.371	530	482	48	129	26	0	8	56	6

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/23/2014.

After posting a .506 career slugging percentage from 2004-2013, David Wright is slugging just .371 this year.  That's lower than the slugging percentages put up by non-slugging speedsters like Jose Altuve, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Denard Span, Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon.

Even Jose Reyes - who's not having a typical Reyes season with three triples and 23 steals in over 500 plate appearances - is slugging higher than his former infield partner.  And speaking of former Mets, did you notice Justin Turner, Angel Pagan and Endy Chavez on the list as well?

Let's put it this way.  Wong is better than Wright (Kolten is better at slugging percentage, that is), and Rougned Odor is also a better "slugger" this year than the Mets third baseman.  Clearly, when Odor beats Wright, then you know Wright's season stinks.

All jokes aside, there is nothing funny about David Wright's decline in 2014.  The seeds were planted in 2009 when Wright's opposite field approach at Shea Stadium failed to translate to Citi Field's cavernous power alleys.  Then the normally injury-free Wright began to miss extended periods of time, missing a total of 110 games in 2011 and 2013.  This year, Wright has managed to stay on the field, but his batting average is suffering.  And since he's getting mostly singles when he does hit, his slugging percentage is also taking an unsightly dip.  And we haven't really gotten into the drop in stolen bases.  But when Wright's stolen base total (6) is three less than the number put up by soon-to-be-retired octogenarian Yankee captain Derek Jeter (9), then nothing else needs to be said on that topic.

David Wright still has six years and $107 million left on his contract.  By the time that contract expires, Wright's name should be at the top of just about every lifetime offensive category for the Mets.  But if Wright's 2014 offensive output becomes the norm over those six remaining seasons, did the Mets really get what they paid for?  It's a question the Mets front office is going to have to deal with quite a bit if the decline of Wright-ian civilization continues.
 

Are You Ready For Some Hot Stove?

The Boston Red Sox finished off the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 6 Wednesday night to take the 2013 World Series crown.  In doing so, the once-cursed team won their third title in ten seasons, or one more than the Mets have won in 52 seasons.  What will the Mets have to do to win that coveted third championship?  That’s something Sandy Alderson and his Merry Men will have to address during the Hot Stove season, which is now officially underway.  It should be the most important offseason the Mets have had in nearly a decade.

The Mets need help.  Okay, let’s be honest.  They need lots of help.  They need as much help as Jaime Escalante’s students needed to master “cal-cool-us”.

First base?  According to Little Jeffy Wilpon, the Mets have a glut at first base.  Not a glut of talent at first base.  Just a glut.  I guess the next time Webster’s dictionary is updated, the word glut will be defined as “a hybrid of Lucas Duda and Ike Davis” or “the roadblock that prevents a team from pursuing a highly coveted Cuban talent”.

Second base?  Well, that’s Daniel Murphy’s position for the time being.  But now there is talk about moving Gold Glove finalist Eric Young, Jr. to second base.  For the record, Young was considered for a Gold Glove for his defensive excellence in left field, not second base.

Shortstop?  Will Ruben Tejada ever get another shot to be a starter there?  Probably not.  The Mets will have to consider trading for a shortstop that can play the position effectively on a daily basis.  Otherwise, we might see Justin Turner more than we should there.  For all I care, the Mets can trade him to the World Champion Red Sox.  His beard would fit right in.

Sorry, Justin.  Mike Napoli is not impressed.

Third base?  The Captain.  Let’s move on.

Left field?  If Eric Young doesn’t move to second base (he better not), he’ll probably stay in left to entertain the drunken Party City dwellers.  But he might be better served as a fourth outfielder, a la Endy Chavez.  The Mets need to add some pop to the lineup, and left field is one of the positions that could use some.  Lucas Duda need not apply.

Center field?  That belongs to the smooth-as-silk Juan Lagares.  Lagares proved he can handle the position, making superb catch after super catch and showing off his strong, accurate arm every time an opposing player was foolish enough to test him.  You know who else was foolish?  The people who made Andrew McCutchen and Denard Span finalists for the Gold Glove in center field over Lagares.

Right field?  Give me Choo or give me someone who’s better than whomever the Mets trotted out there last year after Byrd became the word in Pittsburgh.  Obviously, acquiring Shin-soo Choo would prove the Mets are indeed down with OBP, as his .423 on-base percentage was second in the league to teammate Joey Votto.  Choo also posted his third career 20/20 season, hitting 21 homers and stealing 20 bases.  If Eric Young, Jr. loses playing time, the Mets will have to find steals from someone other than the National League stolen base king.  Byrd was the word in 2013.  Choo should do in 2014.

Catcher?  Like it or not, the position belongs to Travis d’Arnaud.  He’ll have to perform better if he wants to be known for something other than being the Met with a large P on his back.  To back up d’Arnaud, the Mets should probably bring in a veteran player.  But if they don’t, Anthony Recker isn’t a terrible option.

Starting pitchers?  Zack Wheeler, Jonathon Niese and Dillon Gee form the top three.  The bottom two is where the Mets will have to be creative.  Although Rafael Montero has already made 16 starts at the Triple-A level, he will probably not get called up until June at the earliest.  And Noah Syndergaard has yet to face Triple-A hitters, so don’t expect to see him at Citi Field before the All-Star Break.  With Jenrry Mejia coming off an injury, as well as Jeremy Hefner and that Harvey guy recovering from major surgery, the Mets will need at least one and perhaps two veteran stopgaps in the rotation.  Aaron Harang did okay in his late-season tryout and so did Daisuke Matsuzaka.  If I had Wilpon blood running through my veins, I’d bring back Dice-K.  After all, how would the Mets ever sell their glut (there’s that word again) of Matsuzaka T-shirts that are left in the team store?

Dice-K's shirt is almost outselling the Sandy Koufax Brooklyn Dodgers jersey in the Mets Team Store.

Relief pitchers?  Bobby Parnell, LaTroy Hawkins and Scott Rice should stay.  Scott Atchison could also stay unless the Senior League reforms and takes him as their No. 1 overall pick.  Everyone else can fade away or join the Phillies, like every other former Met eventually does, except for Frank Francisco.  He’ll be taking advantage of his soon-to-be unemployment by petitioning the Olympic committee to add chair tossing as a medal event.

Bench?  The Mets need a well-balanced bench.  It can’t be full of .260 hitters with little power and no speed.  (The fact that Justin Turner has hit exactly .260 in his career with little power and no speed should be viewed as a coincidence.  It does not reflect my personal distaste for the pie-chucker.  Supposedly.)  The non-starters should be split evenly between left-handed and right-handed hitters, with at least one speedster that can be brought in to pinch-run, one power bat, one contact bat, one utility player and one late-inning defensive replacement.  If a player can combine two of those talents, the Mets will have a better chance to compete when they eventually play another 20-inning game.

With Matt Harvey out for the 2014 campaign and many positions still up for grabs, the Mets enter the hot stove season with many pieces needed to complete what should be an interesting puzzle.  If Papa Smirk and Little Jeffy aren’t willing to keep their promise of spending money this offseason, the only thing Mets fans will have to look forward to in 2014 is not having to subject themselves to Tim McCarver’s analysis (he put the “anal” in analysis) during Saturday FOX telecasts.  As much as a Timmy-less Saturday pleases a plethora of Mets fans, we’d like a little more than that to make us not want to jump off the Shea Bridge in a Lime-A-Rita-fueled stupor.  Besides, we won’t have Frank Francisco to break our fall this year.

Let’s get cracking, Sandy!  Put some logs in the hot stove and see if you can fire up the fan base.  End this five-year fizzle by making Citi Field sizzle.  The Red Sox shouldn’t have to have all the fun in October.