The Decline of Wright-ian Civilization

There's no arguing the facts.  David Wright is not the player he used to be.  (Photo by Nick Laham)

David Wright is in serious decline right now.  There's no other way to put it.  Since signing his eight-year, $138 million contract prior to the 2013 campaign, Wright has played in 233 games, batting .286 with 26 HR, 114 RBI, 111 runs scored and 23 stolen bases.  That's in nearly two full seasons of baseball, folks.  If you look at what Wright did in 2007 alone (.325, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 113 runs scored, 34 steals), it's quite clear that the Mets' third baseman has dropped off considerably at the plate.

In 2009, Wright's drop-off in the power department was attributed to the spaciousness of the newly-opened Citi Field.  Although Wright produced just 10 homers that season, he made up for it by batting .307.  He also smoked 39 doubles and stole 27 bags.  Five years later, Wright is having another powerless season (8 HR in 121 games through Friday), but he is not contributing in other facets of the game like he did in 2009.

Wright has just 26 doubles and no triples this year.  To put that in perspective, Wright has never completed a full season (min. 150 games played) with fewer than 36 doubles and he has yet to have a season (regardless of how many games he played) with nary a triple to his credit.  Wright's six steals in 2014 would also fall well short of his career-low over a full season.  The third sacker has never stolen fewer than 15 bases when he's played 150 or more games.  Even when he missed 60 games in 2011 with a stress fracture in his back, he still managed to swipe 13 bags.

For the year, Wright is batting .268 with 34 extra-base hits.  Only 26.4% of his 129 total hits have gone for extra bases.  Compare that to what he did in first ten seasons in the big leagues, when 38.0% of his hits were doubles, triples or homers.  In fact, in every season Wright has played at least 150 games, he's had a minimum of 64 extra-base hits.  He's barely halfway to that total now.  And he's only missed eight games this year, so barring injuries or an unexpected benching, Wright will play in at least 150 games in 2014 and come nowhere near his usual extra-base hit totals.

Now let's look at slugging percentage.  Rather, let's look at some of the slugging percentages put up by a few seemingly random big league hitters this year.  Then let's look at the guy listed at the bottom of the chart below.

Player	SLG	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB
Justin Turner	.448	253	223	37	71	15	1	4	29	5
Jose Altuve	.439	563	524	68	175	33	2	6	42	46
Brett Gardner	.439	533	460	77	125	18	7	15	52	19
Jose Reyes	.415	506	467	74	137	27	3	8	38	23
Coco Crisp	.405	401	341	57	88	20	3	8	42	16
Jacoby Ellsbury	.401	532	476	58	132	25	2	10	55	34
Denard Span	.399	539	491	76	147	34	6	1	25	27
Angel Pagan	.391	325	302	41	91	16	1	3	22	12
Billy Hamilton	.388	503	469	66	126	24	7	6	44	49
Kolten Wong	.388	327	304	39	75	10	3	9	33	17
Dee Gordon	.383	530	491	70	142	18	11	2	27	57
Rougned Odor	.379	295	272	25	69	9	5	5	27	2
Endy Chavez	.374	206	187	19	52	8	2	2	16	4
David Wright	.371	530	482	48	129	26	0	8	56	6

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/23/2014.

After posting a .506 career slugging percentage from 2004-2013, David Wright is slugging just .371 this year.  That's lower than the slugging percentages put up by non-slugging speedsters like Jose Altuve, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Denard Span, Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon.

Even Jose Reyes - who's not having a typical Reyes season with three triples and 23 steals in over 500 plate appearances - is slugging higher than his former infield partner.  And speaking of former Mets, did you notice Justin Turner, Angel Pagan and Endy Chavez on the list as well?

Let's put it this way.  Wong is better than Wright (Kolten is better at slugging percentage, that is), and Rougned Odor is also a better "slugger" this year than the Mets third baseman.  Clearly, when Odor beats Wright, then you know Wright's season stinks.

All jokes aside, there is nothing funny about David Wright's decline in 2014.  The seeds were planted in 2009 when Wright's opposite field approach at Shea Stadium failed to translate to Citi Field's cavernous power alleys.  Then the normally injury-free Wright began to miss extended periods of time, missing a total of 110 games in 2011 and 2013.  This year, Wright has managed to stay on the field, but his batting average is suffering.  And since he's getting mostly singles when he does hit, his slugging percentage is also taking an unsightly dip.  And we haven't really gotten into the drop in stolen bases.  But when Wright's stolen base total (6) is three less than the number put up by soon-to-be-retired octogenarian Yankee captain Derek Jeter (9), then nothing else needs to be said on that topic.

David Wright still has six years and $107 million left on his contract.  By the time that contract expires, Wright's name should be at the top of just about every lifetime offensive category for the Mets.  But if Wright's 2014 offensive output becomes the norm over those six remaining seasons, did the Mets really get what they paid for?  It's a question the Mets front office is going to have to deal with quite a bit if the decline of Wright-ian civilization continues.
 

Was The Johan Santana Trade Worth It For The Mets?

"Who does this stupid blogger think he is, trying to say I wasn't worth the money?  I didn't see him pitch a no-hitter."

After a six-year relationship with the Mets, Johan Santana is no longer on the team's payroll, as the Mets paid the lefty $5.5 million to buy out his $25 million option for 2014.  With Santana no longer part of the team, the time has come to analyze whether or not the Mets did the right thing by trading for him in 2008.

At the time of the deal, which sent Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra to the Minnesota Twins, the Mets were trying desperately to make amends with their fans after their epic collapse in 2007.  To complete the trade, the Mets signed Santana to a six-year, $137.5 million contract, which at the time was the most lucrative deal ever given to a pitcher.

Johan Santana was very good as a Met - when he was healthy.  In his first year in Flushing, Santana was 16-7 with 206 strikeouts and a league-leading 2.53 ERA.  Santana became the first left-handed pitcher in franchise history to lead the league in ERA in 2008, and the fourth Met overall to accomplish the feat, following right-handed starters Tom Seaver (1970, 1971, 1973), Craig Swan (1978) and Dwight Gooden (1985).  Santana's 206 strikeouts are also tops for a southpaw in club annals, surpassing Jon Matlack's record of 205 Ks, which he accomplished in 1973.

In his final start of the season, Santana gave one of the gutsiest performances by a pitcher in the team's history.  With the Mets needing to win to stay alive in the race for a postseason berth, Santana fired a three-hit shutout against the Florida Marlins on just three days rest.  And he did it with a torn meniscus in his left knee.  The Mets failed to make the playoffs in 2008 but succeeded in finally having a true ace atop their rotation.  Or so it seemed.

Santana's start on September 27, 2008 came in the first year of his six-year commitment to the Mets.  He would only make one more September start for the Mets over the last five years of his contract.  An assortment of injuries kept Santana on the disabled list for all of 2011 and 2013, and curtailed his 2009, 2010 and 2012 seasons.  But that 2012 campaign saw Santana do something no Mets fan ever thought he'd see.

On June 1, 2012, Johan Santana threw the first no-hitter in franchise history in the team's 8,020th regular season game.  Just like every Mets fan knows where he or she was on that unbelievable night, most Mets fans remember that he needed 134 pitches to complete his gem.  After he struck out David Freese to enter no-hit nirvana, Santana suffered through pitching purgatory.  An 8.27 ERA over his next ten starts left Terry Collins and Mets fans wondering if the inflated pitch count needed to secure his place in team history contributed to his post-no-hitter blues.  They continued to wonder for a year and a half, as Santana never pitched again for the Mets after August 17, 2012.

Johan Santana went 46-34 in 109 starts as a Met.  His 3.18 career ERA in New York is lower than the ERAs posted by all-time Met greats Ron Darling, Al Leiter and Rick Reed.  But for $137.5 million, we expected a little more.

For example, Santana's 46 victories fell short of the win total posted by relief pitchers John Franco (48), Jesse Orosco (47) and Tug McGraw (47).  Santana's 109 starts are also nine fewer than the number of starts made by Jonathon Niese, a pitcher who was still playing for AA-Binghamton when Santana made his first start for the Mets.

Great pitchers are supposed to produce great moments.  But other than the penultimate game of the 2008 season and the no-hitter, can anyone honestly remember another memorable pitching performance by Johan Santana?

Photo by Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus

Mention Tom Seaver and you immediately think of the "imperfect game" or his ten-inning performance in Game 4 of the 1969 World Series (the Ron Swoboda game), or any of a number of dominant performances in 1973 when the rest of the team was floundering.  Similarly, say Doc Gooden's name and visions of back-to-back 16-strikeout games in 1984 and his 14-game winning streak in 1985 become crystal clear in your mind.

Johan Santana had two games that will forever be etched in the hearts and minds of Mets fans.  That's the same number of complete seasons he missed.

Don't get me wrong.  As a Mets fan who agonized over every late-inning first hit allowed by a starting pitcher, it was a dream come true to see someone like Johan Santana pitch the first no-hitter in team history.  Better him than someone like Oliver Perez.

But $137.5 million is just a tad too much for a no-hitter and a season-saving gritty performance - one that saved the season until it was lost the following day.  Carlos Gomez, the main piece in the deal that pried Santana away from the Twins, is now a Gold Glove-winning All-Star in Milwaukee.  His 24 homers and 40 stolen bases for the Brewers in 2013 would have led the Mets in both categories.  (Marlon Byrd's 21 homers and Eric Young's 38 steals led the team.)  Since 1989, only one Met has led the team in home runs and stolen bases in the same season.  That was Mike Cameron, who paced the 2004 Mets with 30 homers and 22 steals.

Carlos Gomez just completed the first year of a four-year, $28.3 million deal with the Brewers.  That's just barely more than the $25.5 million Johan Santana was paid in 2013 to not throw a single pitch for the Mets.

The no-hitter was great.  But I would have liked to see Santana win more games than Jesse Orosco.  A monkey's paw-like wish for a moment 8,020 games in the making doesn't seem to be worth what the Mets doled out for their smooth former All-Star.
 

The Mets Outfield Is Showing Life Without Being Bourn

Remember when the Mets were trying to land Michael Bourn during the offseason?  Bourn decided to take the money and run to Cleveland instead.  So how's that going for him?  Well, his new team is doing well in the American League Central, just three games behind the division-leading Detroit Tigers.  But they're not succeeding because of Bourn.  In fact, other than a decent batting average (.291), Bourn's other numbers are far less than what Cleveland bargained for when they signed him.

Earlier this season, Bourn had a short stint on the disabled list, but he has still managed to rack up 306 at-bats.  In those at-bats, he's collected 14 doubles, one triple, four homers and 29 RBI.  He's also scored 43 runs and stolen 13 bases, while striking out 74 times and drawing 20 walks.

Think about this.  Bourn was signed for his defensive prowess (he's won two Gold Gloves) and for his speed.  Therefore, it would not be unreasonable to expect him to steal many bases, as well as leg out many doubles and triples.  Yet Bourn is seventh on his own team in doubles (Asdrubal Cabrera has eight more doubles than Bourn even though Bourn has one more at-bat than Cabrera) and five teammates, including backup catcher Yan Gomes, have more triples than Bourn.  Bourn isn't even leading the team in stolen bases.  That honor goes to Jason Kipnis, who has 21 steals in 26 attempts.

And let's look at those stolen base numbers for Bourn.  He has 13 steals in 21 attempts.  In 2011, he led the league in times caught stealing with 14.  But he also stole a league-leading 61 bases that year, which made it easy to overlook the times he was erased on the bases.  Last year, he was once again the caught stealing champion with 13.  He was successful on 42 stolen base attempts, a noticeable decline from his 2011 numbers, but still not something to be worried about.  This year, Bourn has just 13 thefts, which is a significant dropoff.  Despite the drastic decrease in stolen bases, Bourn is still the league leader in caught stealing with eight.  Clearly, he is not the player he once was in the stolen base department, as his success rate has been taking a tremendous hit in 2013.

In addition to stealing bases, a leadoff hitter is supposed to get on base and score runs.  Although Bourn has never been a threat to lead the league in on-base percentage, he has still managed to maintain an OBP above .340 in each of the last four seasons.  This year, despite his .291 batting average, Bourn is only reaching base at a .338 clip, which would be his lowest on-base percentage since 2008.  After averaging 61 walks per season since 2009, including a career-high 70 walks last season, Bourn has only seen ball four 20 times this year in 330 plate appearances.

The combination of his poor stolen base success rate and his inability to draw a walk has limited Bourn to only 43 runs scored, which is tied for fifth-most on the Indians.  Prior to this year, Bourn had surpassed 90 runs scored in three of his last four seasons.  The one year he failed to score 90, he missed the last three weeks of the season due to an oblique injury.  He still managed to score 84 runs in 2010 despite missing 21 games.

So that's what Michael Bourn has done in his first year with the Indians.  Now let's compare his numbers to the ones posted by Mets center fielder Juan Lagares.  You might notice some similarities between the two.

• Bourn: .291/.338/.382, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 29 RBI, 43 runs, 13 SB, 74 K, 20 BB, 1.9 WAR
  
• Lagares: .263/.294/.398, 15 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 17 runs, 2 SB, 47 K, 7 BB, 1.9 WAR

Juan Lagares looks better in blue and orange than Michael Bourn, don't you think?

Now what if I told you that Bourn has almost twice as many plate appearances (330) than Lagares has with the Mets (171)?  Therefore, it would be reasonable to assume that if Lagares had come to the plate 330 times, his cumulative offensive statistics would be equal to or would surpass many of the numbers posted by Bourn.

There are two things, however, that Bourn has a commanding edge over Lagares.  First, he is more than six years older than Lagares.  Bourn will turn 31 in December, while Lagares won't turn 25 until next April.  And second, Bourn is in the first year of a four-year, $48 million contract.  A vesting option could turn that into a five-year, $60 million deal.  Lagares is playing for the major league mininum salary.

The Mets came close to paying Michael Bourn tens of millions of dollars to play center field for the team until his mid-30s.  Instead, they just handed over the job to a player in his mid-20s whose numbers are rivaling those being put up by Bourn in Cleveland.  The only numbers Lagares is not rivaling Bourn in is age and salary.

When the season began, the Mets were playing musical chairs in the outfield, hoping to find a set of three players that would be around when the music stopped.  With nearly two-thirds of the season complete, the Mets have finally found those three players.  With Eric Young, Jr. and Marlon Byrd flanking him in left field and right field, respectively, Juan Lagares has taken over as the field general in the outfield.  He's done everything that's been asked of him, including playing stellar defense.  That's what the Mets were hoping to get from Michael Bourn before the season started.  It's good to know that the outfield has shown signs of life without ever being Bourn.