Showing posts with label Barry Zito. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Barry Zito. Show all posts

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Joey's Soapbox: Giants Fans More Obnoxious Than Phillies Fans

Last night, I attended the opener of the Mets' three-game weekend series against the San Francisco Giants at Citi Field.  After watching batting practice, I made my way to our season ticket seats in row five of Section 138 and sat down to watch what I expected to be a well-played game between the Mets and Giants.  But there was a buzzing in my ear for most of the game.  It was worse than any incessant gnat and more intolerable than anything I had ever heard at Citi Field before.  What caused this annoying buzz that a mere swat couldn't expunge?

Section 138 had been taken over by a swarm of loud, belligerent and obnoxious orange-and-black clad Giants fans.

I'm Joey Beartran and you better believe I'm about to get on my soapbox for this.

There was a time when Giants fans were more docile creatures.  They went to games, rooted for their team and cheered politely.  If the Giants won, they'd be happy about it, but they wouldn't rub it in the faces of their opponent's fans.

Then the Giants won the World Series in 2010 and everything changed.

In 2011, I noticed an influx of Giants fans at Citi Field when the Mets hosted San Francisco.  They took over a small section of the Pepsi Porch and were very loud.  Because they had won the World Series the year before, giving them exactly ONE title in the 53 seasons they had been in the Bay Area, either they were releasing a half-century of pent-up frustration or they were becoming west coast copycats of the Phillies' fan base.  At the time, I went with the former instead of the latter and let them have their fun for one season.  I assumed that because the Giants were the defending World Series champions, their fans were just continuing their long-overdue celebration.  I assumed incorrectly.

Last night, Giants fans were all over Citi Field again, but mostly in Section 138.  Either they were experiencing the world's longest post-championship hangover or they just became really rude and obnoxious.

Giants fans and their Occupy Section 138 movement.


From the first inning, they were chanting "Let's Go Giants" at a decibel rate that would make a Metallica roadie go deaf.  In addition, they were standing up and pumping their fists during these chants, blocking the view of any Mets fan who was trying to enjoy the game.  (I was not affected by the upright Giants fans, as their seats were behind me.)

When the familiar sounds of the Ramones' "Blitzkrieg Bop" played over the loudspeakers, encouraging the Mets to "hey ho, let's go", Giants fans changed the lyrics to "Zi-to, let's go" in honor of their starting pitcher, Barry Zito.  That was somewhat clever, but no one changes the lyrics to a Ramones song, especially in their home borough of Queens.

Then they started mocking Mets fans with other chants.  They were ripping on Jason Bay, calling him a bum.  (Bay promptly shut them up by ending the Giants' early no-hit bid in the fourth inning with a home run off Zito, essentially saying "Zi-to, let's go, go, gone!" to them.)  They also made fun of the "Jo-se, Jo-se, Jo-se, Jo-se" chant by changing it to "Po-sey, Po-sey, Po-sey, Po-sey" when catcher/first baseman Buster Posey came up to bat.  But then they broke into a "BER-nie MA-doff, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap" chant and that went over the line.  It got so bad that my colleague actually wondered aloud if this was why Dodgers fans pummeled Giants fan Bryan Stow after their season-opening game in 2011.  (Note:  What happened to Bryan Stow was uncalled for even if he did act like last night's Section 138 invaders.  You don't beat fans for being obnxious, you have your team beat the obnoxious fans' team.  That always shuts them up.)

By the middle of the game, I had to move from my seat because Section 138 had become unbearable.  After a four-inning break in the Caesar's Club, we returned to the field level to watch the ninth inning, an inning in which the Mets rallied to tie the game against the Giants' bullpen-by-committee.  After the Giants had lost their lead, you could hear a pin drop in Section 138.  Fortunately, you couldn't hear that pin where we were standing because we were surrounded by jubilant Mets fans.  (We had moved behind Section 110 along the first base side.)

Of course, the Giants scored a run in the top of the tenth to retake the lead, setting off a celebration in Section 138 because apparently the Giants fans confused a mid-April game for the seventh game of the World Series.  The Mets tried to silence the panda hat-wearing crowd in the bottom of the tenth after Daniel Murphy and David Wright led off the inning with base hits.  But a broken-bat groundout by Ike Davis, a strikeout by Jason Bay (okay, now he is a bum, but only I can say it, not them) and Lucas Duda flyout ended the Mets' threat and started what appeared to be an impromptu conga line in the left field reserved section.

I've seen Phillies fans.  They've been supportive of their teams for quite some time now, and by "quite some time", I mean since 2007.  But last night's overtaking of Section 138 by Giants fans was more obnoxious than anything I had seen or heard by any group of Phillies fans at Citi Field.  They were beyond boisterous.  They were rude and inconsiderate to a level that even a five-year Phillies fan would have to tip their cap to in appreciation.

All I kept thinking about during the many "Let's Go Giants" chants was what those fans were chanting at baseball games before 2010.  It probably sounded more like "Let's Go Dodgers" or "Let's Go Padres" instead.  Either that or they'd be talking to each other in the stands about the 49ers' chances in the NFC West.

Do you see the handsome bear in the photo to the right?  That's yours truly enjoying a game at AT&T Park in 2010 with no hostile Giants fans anywhere around me.  I was there for the entire Mets-Giants series, which took place approximately three months before the Giants won the World Series.  At the time, the Mets were actually ahead of the Giants in the wild card race (the San Diego Padres were leading the NL West).  Although Giants fans were supportive of their team back then, they didn't have this sense of empowerment that they have now.

The St. Louis Cardinals are the defending World Series champions.  I'm sure when they visit Citi Field in early June, Cardinals fans in attendance won't be beating their chests and proclaiming their superiority.  That's probably why they're considered to be among the best, if not the best, fans in baseball.  They're classy.  Giants fans are clearly not.

Stay classy, San Francisco.  Better yet, stay home.  We don't want you in our ballpark if you're going to disrespect our fans because you won one World Series title two years ago.  Before you fire off your next oh-so-clever chant, remember this.  The Giants couldn't beat the Mets in their only postseason meeting in 2000 and it took your beloved team 53 years in San Francisco to win half of the championships the Mets won in less time.  I hope you're just as proud when it takes them 53 more years to win that second championship, you know, the same number of championships the Mets have been able to claim for over a quarter of a century.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Long-Term Deals Lead To Long-Term Headaches



In 2006, the Mets needed one more win to reach the World Series.  When they failed to do that, they decided to go shopping for a pitcher that would help them get that win.  Barry Zito was the name on everyone's minds that offseason.  In seven years with Oakland, Zito had an impressive 102-63 record and a 3.55 ERA.  From 2001 to 2006, Zito made at least 34 starts in every season and did not pitch fewer than 213 innings in any of those campaigns.  He was also a three-time All-Star and a former Cy Young Award winner.  But to get him, the Mets would have to pay a pretty penny.  They'd also have to give him many years.

The San Francisco Giants beat the Mets to the punch, signing Zito to a seven-year, $126 million contract.  At the time, it was the largest contract ever offered to a pitcher.  Zito has thanked the Giants for their generosity by going 43-61 with a 4.55 ERA over the first five years of his contract.  The Giants thanked him back by leaving him off the World Series roster in 2010.

It could have been the Mets paying for Zito over the past five seasons.  Before becoming a Giant, Zito's lifetime numbers (102-63, 3.55 ERA, 222 starts, 1,096 strikeouts) looked a lot like what Ron Darling put up with the Mets (99-70, 3.50 ERA, 241 starts, 1,148 strikeouts).  Since then, Zito has been paid an average of $18 million per year to pitch like Al Jackson.  (Jackson went 43-80 with a 4.26 ERA as a Met.)

Fortunately, the Mets didn't give Zito the long-term deal afforded to him by the Giants.  But that hasn't stopped them from giving other deals of four years or more to pitchers.  In fact, over the past decade the Mets have given a number of long-term deals (four years or more) to various pitchers and although they haven't been Zito-esque, they still weren't rewarded the way they expected to be.  Let's take a look at those faulty deals.


2000:  Armando Benitez - Four years, $22 million

After long-time Mets closer John Franco was sidelined with an injury in 1999, Armando Benitez stepped in and became the team's closer.  Benitez helped the Mets end an 11-year playoff drought in 1999, but gave up a game-tying single to Ozzie Guillen (yes, that Ozzie Guillen) in the tenth inning of Game 6, with the Mets two outs away from forcing an improbable Game 7 after losing the first three games of the series.  It would not be the first time Benitez would blow a lead in a crucial game.  However, it didn't stop the Mets from signing him to a four-year deal during that offseason.

In 2000, Benitez was armed with a new contract to go with his blazing fastball.  He set the Mets' single season record with 41 saves and was part of the team's first World Series appearance since 1986.  But he gave up a game-tying three-run homer to the Giants' J.T. Snow in Game 2 of the NLDS, a game eventually won by the Mets in extra innings when John Franco, the man Benitez replaced as closer only a year before, struck out Barry Bonds to tie the series.  Franco couldn't help him in Game 1 of the World Series, as Benitez gave up a walk, two singles and a game-tying sacrifice fly in the ninth inning, blowing yet another save in a crucial postseason game.  The Mets went on to lose the game and the series to the Yankees.

The following season, the Mets didn't make the playoffs, but that didn't stop Benitez from blowing huge saves.  In 2001, the Mets were attempting to make a 1973-like run to the top of the division.  After starting the year with a 54-68 record, the Mets went on a tear, winning 22 of their next 27 games to pull to within 3½ games of the first place Braves.  With the Mets one out away from cutting the lead to 2½ games, Armando Benitez gave up a two-run homer to Brian Jordan and an RBI single to B.J. Surhoff, in a game eventually lost by the Mets in 11 innings, when Jordan hit his second home run in as many at-bats.  A week later, Benitez was at it again, blowing a four-run ninth inning lead by giving up five runs in two-thirds of an inning to the Braves.  By then, Benitez had worn out his welcome in New York, with fans booing loudly every time he came into a game.  With a few months left on his contract in 2003, the Mets were finally able to unload Benitez, trading him to the Yankees who in turn flipped him to Seattle.  Benitez thanked the Mets in 2004 by saving 11 games against them as a member of the Florida Marlins.  He's still waiting for a "you're welcome".


2001: Kevin Appier - Four years, $42 million

After the Mets went to the World Series in 2000, Mike Hampton defected to the Colorado Rockies in order to pay the $121 million tuition bill for their precious school system. (That was his reason for leaving, right?)  Needing to fill the void left by Hampton's departure, the Mets turned to free agent Kevin Appier.  Appier was a 12-year veteran with 136 career wins and a respectable 3.63 career ERA.  Those numbers look good on paper, but most of them were achieved during his first five seasons in the majors.

From 1989-1993, Appier was 59-38 for the Kansas City Royals with a stellar 2.95 ERA.  In the seven years prior to becoming a Met, Appier had gone 77-67 with a 4.11 ERA for the Royals and Oakland A's, hardly the numbers that would earn a player a four-year, $42 million deal in 2001.  But the Mets were desperate, so they overpaid for Appier.

Appier pitched one year for the Mets, going 11-10 with a 3.57 ERA.  Although the ERA was his lowest since 1997, it was still not the kind of season the Mets expected from their $42 million man.  The Mets traded Appier after only one season in New York, sending him to Anaheim for the past-his-prime Mo Vaughn.  Appier won 22 games over the remaining three years of his contract, never pitching again after the deal was done.  Vaughn played 166 games for the Mets, before retiring due to knee problems.  Who says the stomach isn't connected to the knee bone?


2003: Tom Glavine - Four years, $42.5 million

In 2002, the Mets suffered their first losing season since 1996 and first last place finish since 1993.  Much of the blame was placed on their free agent flops, as Mo Vaughn, Roberto Alomar and Jeromy Burnitz brought underachieving to new depths. But another reason for their failures was their pitching staff.  Al Leiter and Steve Trachsel were .500 pitchers.  Pedro Astacio was the rotation's sole winning pitcher at 12-11.  Jeff D'Amico (another free agent flop) won six games.  And Shawn Estes couldn't hit the strike zone or Roger Clemens.  To fix the pitching mess, general manager Steve Phillips imported one of the best pitchers from the Mets' fiercest rival.

Tom Glavine had always been a thorn in the Mets' side.  Prior to 2003, Glavine had gone 17-7 with a 2.82 ERA in 36 starts against the Mets.  The Mets expected great things from the 242-game winner and got a season reminiscent of another eventual 300-game winner named Tom.  Unfortunately, that season was Tom Seaver's 1983 campaign, a season that Glavine mirrored two decades later by going 9-14 for the Mets.

Although Glavine did up his win by two every year for the next three years, he still failed to pitch like the Hall of Famer he will probably become.  Throughout the length of his original four-year deal (the fourth year was an option year based on innings pitched), Glavine was merely a .500 pitcher, going 48-48.  But the sting of losing to the Cardinals in the 2006 NLCS left Glavine wanting more, so he signed a one-year deal to pitch the Mets back to the playoffs.  He got his chance on the final day of the 2007 season.  How did he do?  Let's just say that instead of being the second coming of Tom Terrific, he became the first coming of Tom Horrific, but at least he wasn't devastated by it.  Too bad the same couldn't be said for Mets fans.


2005: Pedro Martinez - Four years, $53 million

In 2004, the Mets had just come off their third consecutive losing season and new general manager Omar Minaya felt the need to make a big splash (a common theme during his time in New York).  Free agent pitcher Pedro Martinez was the big name on the market and Minaya was adamant about signing him.  Martinez was arguably the best pitcher in the American League during his seven-year stay in Boston, going 117-37 with a 2.52 ERA.  He was also a six-time All-Star, three-time Cy Young Award winner, five-time ERA leader and three-time strikeout champion.  But one overlooked fact about Pedro was that in his final season in Boston, his ERA ballooned to 3.90 and his 193 hits allowed were the most he had ever given up in a full season.

Speaking of full seasons, Martinez had only surpassed 30 starts in four of the 11 seasons since he became a full-time starter.  Over his final six seasons in Boston, he had only gone past 30 starts once.  His fragility was the reason why Boston wouldn't guarantee a fourth year, something the Mets eventually did in order to bring him into the fold.

The contract looked like a bargain in 2005.  In his first season in New York, Pedro went 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA and 208 strikeouts.  He also made 31 starts and led the major leagues with his 0.95 WHIP.  However, after winning his first five starts in 2006, Martinez broke down.  And broke down.  And broke down some more.  From May 2006 to the end of his contract in 2008, Martinez went 12-15 with a 5.00 ERA, making only 48 starts, none of which came in the playoffs during the Mets' run to Game 7 of the NLCS.  His contract and injury history made him untradeable, and Martinez did not pitch again in the major leagues until late in the 2009 season, when he helped the Phillies reach the World Series.  Of course.


2006: Billy Wagner - Four years, $43 million

The Braden Looper experiment of 2004 and 2005 failed, to put it mildly.  Although the Mets were headed in the right direction in 2005, improving by 12 wins under first-year manager Willie Randolph, Looper wasn't the right fit for the team coming into late-inning pressure situations.  General manager Omar Minaya felt that a change was needed at the closer position, so he dipped his toe into the free agent waters again.  Enter Billy Wagner, as the Sandman who did his best to give opposing hitters nightmares.

Wagner was outstanding in 2006, becoming the first left-handed pitcher in club history to record 40 saves in a single season.  But Wagner started to fall apart late over the next two seasons.  In 2007, it was his performance on the mound towards the end of the season (6.91 ERA, three blown saves in his final 14 appearances) that helped the Mets give up their seemingly insurmountable lead in the division.  One year later, it was his lack of appearances on the mound that led to the Mets' downfall.

After blowing a save against the Astros on August 2, Wagner did not pitch again in 2008, needing Tommy John surgery to repair his damaged elbow.  Two weeks after Wagner's season-ending injury, the Mets acquired Luis Ayala and he became the club's fill-in closer.  This was the same Luis Ayala who had racked up a whopping nine saves in four seasons with the Washington Nationals.  Two blown saves, two losses and a 5.50 ERA later, Ayala had done more than just blow the lead in various games.  He helped blow the Mets' lead in the division, all while Billy Wagner was collecting his paycheck in the recovery room.  Ayala was gone by 2009, as was Billy Wagner, who made two token appearances after the All-Star Break to up his trade value from getting a bag of golf balls to getting Chris Carter from the Boston Red Sox.  Perhaps the golf balls would have been the better deal.


2008:  Johan Santana - Six years, $137.5 million

A year after the Mets failed to make Barry Zito the highest paid pitcher in baseball, they pulled out their wallets for a far more deserving candidate in Johan Santana.  After completing a deal with the Minnesota Twins for the star lefty (not the first time the Mets sent a bushel of young players to Minnesota for a former Cy Young Award winning southpaw), the Mets signed Santana to a six-year extension, hoping the put the stunning late-season collapse of 2007 behind them.

In his first year in New York, Santana gave the Mets everything they could have wanted and more.  The 29-year-old finished the season with a 16-7 record and a major league-leading 2.53 ERA.  Santana finished third in the Cy Young Award vote and could have finished higher had it not been for the seven games he handed over to the bullpen with the lead that they failed to hold.  (Dang you, Billy Wagner and Luis Ayala!)

In 2009, Santana started the season well (8-3, 2.39 ERA over his first 12 starts), but became an average pitcher over his final 13 starts (5-6, 3.80 ERA) before missing the final six weeks of the season with an elbow injury.  The 2010 season wasn't much different for Santana, who had a fine start (8-5, 2.79 ERA), followed by a sluggish finish (3-4, 3.47 ERA) and another season-ending injury.  However, this injury ended two seasons, as Santana has not thrown a baseball in a major league game since then.  Santana is entering his fifth season with the Mets with a 40-25 career mark in New York, which isn't bad, but the Mets probably expected him to be in the franchise's top ten in wins by now (Steve Trachsel currently rounds out the top ten with 66 wins as a Met).  Instead, Santana is still chasing guys like Craig Swan (59 wins), Mike Pelfrey (50 wins), Al Jackson (43 wins) and Pat Zachry (41 wins).  That's what $137.5 million buys you in the Mets' world.

The Mets have flushed a lot of their money down the toilet by signing pitchers to long-term deals.


In 2007, The Mets wouldn't offer Barry Zito the long-term commitment the Giants did, and rightfully so, as Zito has been one of the worst free-agent signings in baseball history.  However, that doesn't mean the Mets haven't given away (literally) their money to other top pitchers over the past decade.

Since the advent of the 21st century, the Mets have signed six pitchers to deals of four years or more.  Armando Benitez almost made it through the four years, but not before having to tell his kids that the correct pronunciation of their last name wasn't Boo-nitez.  Kevin Appier was traded away after one season for a player who retired before Appier's contract was up.  Tom Glavine was a .500 pitcher throughout his four-year deal, which of course translated into another one-year contract that the Mets and their fans would like to forget.  Pedro Martinez might have ushered in the "New Mets" before Carlos Beltran coined the phrase, but really ushered out his own career after one successful campaign.  Billy Wagner celebrated a division title in the arms of Paul LoDuca, but then had arm troubles of his own.  And Johan Santana still has a chance to earn some of his record-setting contract, but has thus far given the Mets one start in the month of September since becoming the last Met pitcher to record a win at Shea Stadium in 2008.

Bad contracts of four years or more have not been limited to pitchers (see Castillo, Luis) and not all bad contracts doled out to pitchers have been for four years or more (see Perez, Oliver).  But ever since the Mets signed Al Leiter to a four-year deal following the 1998 season, they haven't had much success with long-term contracts for pitchers.  Perhaps Sandy Alderson knows what he's doing by not giving out any contracts of more than two years to a pitcher since his arrival in 2010.  Either that or he's well-read on how Mets pitchers have fared after signing long-term deals in the 21st century.  My guess is on the latter.  Then again, like an Armando Benitez fastball in a crucial spot, it's kind of hard to miss.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

The Seven Year Pitch

Jayson Werth just signed a seven-year deal with the Washington Nationals. Cliff Lee is looking for a seven-year deal as well, with the Nationals perhaps willing to give it to him. Players have always been attracted to the almighty dollar at free agent time, but now more than ever, the length of the contract is becoming as important, if not more important, than the number of digits next to the dollar sign.

But is this the right way to go for the teams throwing all that cash on the table? And should they be giving these contracts to players on the wrong side of age 30? Recent history says no.

Remember Mike Hampton? He was the pitcher who was traded by the Astros to the Mets following the 1999 season, a year in which he went 22-4 for Houston. Hampton helped lead the Mets to the World Series, but then left New York for (as he put it) the better school systems in Colorado. The Mets were willing to give him a lucrative deal, but the Rockies were the ones offering the security of an eight-year contract.

The left-handed Hampton left New York after one season, went to Colorado, and watched his talent dissipate in Denver's thin air. During the eight years of his contract (split between Colorado and Atlanta), Hampton won a grand total of 56 games with an ERA of 4.81. But at least his kids benefited from the superior Denver school system.


Hampton is not the only player in recent years to have signed a deal of seven years or more who didn't live up to his contract. In fact, several others have taken a stretch of success, turned it into a long-term contract and then laughed all the way to the bank while his production suffered. Check out what these players did prior to their big paydays followed by their production after they put their John Hancocks on their contracts.


Kevin Brown
  • 1996: 17-11, 1.89 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 159 Ks
  • 1997: 16-8, 2.69 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 205 Ks
  • 1998: 18-7, 2.38 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 257 Ks

Kevin Brown signed a seven-year, $105 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers prior to the 1999 season. His first three years in LA were very good, as he went 41-19 with a 2.77 ERA. Once he entered the middle year of his contract, he became more brittle and his performance suffered, culminating with his trade to the Yankees following the 2003 season.

Over the last four years of his contract, Brown won only 31 games and his ERA went up by more than one run (3.81). In the final season of his contract, he was a shadow of himself, going 4-7 with a 6.50 ERA. The once-dominant pitcher who always had a high strikeout total and low ERA actually allowed more earned runs (53) than had strikeouts (50) in his final major league season.



Ken Griffey, Jr.
  • 1996: .303, 49 HR, 140 RBI, 125 runs scored
  • 1997: .304, 56 HR, 147 RBI, 125 runs scored
  • 1998: .284, 56 HR, 146 RBI, 120 runs scored
  • 1999: .285, 48 HR, 134 RBI, 123 runs scored

The man known as The Kid was already the most popular athlete in baseball in the late '90s, despite playing in the relative obscurity of Seattle. But when his contract expired after the 1999 season, he wanted to go back home. So he left the Pacific Northwest and signed a nine-year, $116.5 million contract to play for the Cincinnati Reds.

His first season in the Queen City wasn't as eye-popping as his last four years in Seattle, but how can anyone be disappointed with a .271 batting average, 40 HR, 118 RBI and 100 runs scored? Unfortunately, that was the best performance he was able to give the Reds.

Following the 2000 season, injury after injury befell The Kid and he was never the same player. Over the last eight years of his contract, Griffey missed a total of 455 games (or the equivalent of nearly three full seasons). He averaged 22 HR and 63 RBI over those seasons, to go with a .269 batting average. When he returned to Seattle to finish out his career, he could barely reach the Mendoza Line, hitting .208 in his final season and a half with the Mariners.



Jason Giambi
  • 1999: .315, 33 HR, 123 RBI, 115 runs scored
  • 2000: .333, 43 HR, 137 RBI, 108 runs scored
  • 2001: .342, 38 HR, 120 RBI, 109 runs scored

With those three dominant seasons in Oakland, you knew the Yankees were going to open up their wallets for Giambi once he became a free agent. And that's exactly what they did when they signed the Giambino for seven years at $120 million.

His first year in pinstripes was as good as his last three years in Oakland, as Giambi finished the 2002 season with a .314 batting average, to go with his 41 HR and 122 RBI. His power was still there in 2003 (41 HR, 107 RBI), but his batting average plummeted to .250. The downward trend in batting average continued throughout the rest of his Yankee career. Over the final five years of his contract, Giambi hit .247. He never hit 40 HR again and only had one other 100 RBI season (2006).


What do Kevin Brown, Ken Griffey Jr. and Jason Giambi all have in common besides their poor production after signing their lucrative long-term deals? They were all in their 30s when they signed their contracts.

Kevin Brown did not throw his first pitch as a Dodger until he was 34. Ken Griffey, Jr. was no longer a spry youth when he signed with Cincinnati as a 30-year-old. Jason Giambi put on the Yankee pinstripes for the first time when he was 31.

What about Mike Hampton? Well, he was the baby of the group, as he signed his eight-year deal with Colorado at the age of 28. However, his contract lasted until he was 36, putting him in his 30s for the majority of the deal.

I haven't even mentioned the most recent disappointment signed to a long-term deal, and it's better if we don't say too much about him. After all, Barry Zito might have become a member of the Mets pitching staff in 2007, but the front office was smart enough not to offer him the seven-year deal that he eventually received from the San Francisco Giants.

Like Hampton, the left-handed Zito was 28 when he crossed the Bay Bridge from Oakland to San Francisco. Once he left the East Bay, the Barry Zito that won 102 games in seven years as an Oakland Athletic disappeared into the San Francisco fog.

Zito has yet to post a winning record in any of his four seasons in San Francisco. His 17 losses led the National League in 2008 and his continued subpar performances led the Giants to leave him off the postseason roster in 2010. They spent $126 million in the hopes that Barry Zito would help them win a championship and in 2010, they won that championship without him.

If that $126 million figure given to Barry Zito over seven years sounds familiar to you, it should. That's the same amount of money and years that the Nationals just gave to Jayson Werth, the man without a 100 RBI season and whose only All-Star Game appearance came as a result of an injury to Mets centerfielder Carlos Beltran in 2009.

It should be noted that Jayson Werth is 31. Cliff Lee, who is also looking for a seven-year deal, is 32. The seven year pitch has become quite popular with today's aging stars. Some owners are still crazy enough to dole out these long-term deals. However, if they all just studied the recent history of baseball and similar contracts, they'd know that seven is not always a lucky number, especially with players past their prime.

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Jayson's Not Werth-y Of His New Contract

Wayne and Garth wouldn't bow down to him, so why did the Nationals do so when they signed Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million deal? In a recently announced deal, the 31-year-old Werth left the supercharged offense of the Phillies to become the main man in the Adam Dunn-less Nationals lineup, where he and Ryan Zimmerman will be the main power threats in a not-so-cozy ballpark.

Let's analyze this from a Mets standpoint. Prior to the 2005 season, the Mets signed Carlos Beltran to a seven-year, $119 million contract. The deal was signed after Beltran completed a phenomenal season split between the Kansas City Royals and the Houston Astros, a season in which he picked up 38 HR and 42 SB. His power/speed numbers weren't the only thing that made him so desirable.

Beltran was also a consistent run producer for Royals and Astros, scoring and driving in 100+ runs in each of the four seasons prior to his mega-deal with the Mets. Here are Beltran's numbers from 2001-2004, the four-year stretch before he became a Met:

  • 2001: .306, 24 HR, 101 RBI, 106 runs, 31 SB, 120 Ks
  • 2002: .273, 29 HR, 105 RBI, 114 runs, 35 SB, 135 Ks
  • 2003: .307, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 102 runs, 41 SB, 81 Ks
  • 2004: .267, 38 HR, 104 RBI, 121 runs, 42 SB, 101 Ks

For the four years, Beltran averaged .288, 29 HR, 102 RBI, 111 runs, 37 SB and 109 Ks. Jayson Werth became a full-time player in 2008. Let's see what he's done over the past three seasons.

  • 2008: .273, 24 HR, 67 RBI, 73 runs, 20 SB, 119 Ks
  • 2009: .268, 36 HR, 99 RBI, 98 runs, 20 SB, 156 Ks
  • 2010: .296, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 106 runs, 13 SB, 147 Ks

In the three seasons since Werth became an everyday player for the Phillies, he has averaged .279, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 92 runs, 18 SB and 141 Ks. He has never hit .300 or driven in 100 runs over a full season. Meanwhile, Beltran hit over .300 twice in the four year period prior to being acquired by the Mets and drove in 100 runs EVERY YEAR in that time period.

Think about that. Werth, who hit in a lineup featuring Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, still couldn't pick up a 100 RBI season. Beltran was constantly driving in Kansas City Royals players. Luis Castillo could get 100 RBI on the Phillies and Jayson Werth couldn't?

How can any team pay Jayson Werth $18 million per season for what he did in that Philadelphia lineup? Do they really expect him to repeat those numbers in a bigger home ballpark with a less than star-studded cast surrounding him?

Then there's the seven years. The Mets are regretting the length of Beltran's contract now, as he has constantly been getting injured and at his age (he'll be 34 in April), he has become practically untradeable. When Werth turns 34, he will only be in the third year of his contract, which will not expire until the year he turns 38.

A 7-year, $126 million is not unprecedented in baseball. Barry Zito signed that same deal with the San Francisco Giants prior to the 2007 season. He has been nothing but a disappointment since then. One other thing about that deal - Zito was only 28 when he became a Giant.

Congratulations to the Washington Nationals for swooping in and getting Jayson Werth when no one expected them to. Let's see if they can be as fortunate when they try to trade him in a few years after realizing that they overpaid for a player who was never Werth it.