Joey's Letter To Sandy Claus (2016)

I figured a sandy setting would be appropriate for a letter to Sandy Claus.  Plus, it reminds me of summer and baseball.

Dear Sandy Claus,

Are you there, Sandy?  It's me, Joey Beartran.  You may remember me from the letters I've sent you in each of the last five holiday seasons.  Other teams' fans have gotten some of their wishes already, such as Cardinals fans getting World Series champion center fielder Dexter Fowler under their tree, Boston lovers getting the Sale of the century and ChiSox supporters getting almost every other team's young prospects to fill their ChiStockings.

As for me and my fellow Mets fans, we're not really asking for much this year.  After all, you've given us two consecutive postseason appearances and have us in position to make an unprecedented third straight October run in 2017.  You've also somehow managed to get superstar slugger Yoenis Céspedes to shun other teams' offers not once, but twice, which has made the loss of former Mets farmhand and current American League Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer a little more palatable.

That doesn't mean we wouldn't want a little something extra from you this holiday season.  I mean, don't get me wrong.  We're quite pleased with the riches you've given us on such a tight budget, but at the same time, we're Mets fans.  That means we're never satisfied.

So since I seem to be the only one here writing you a letter, I figure I'd speak on behalf on my fellow Mets fans so that you know what we'd like this year.  Considering that we've all been nice this year - except for Ray Ramirez, who should probably receive a lump of coal in his stocking, just sayin' - I don't think our wishes are all that unreasonable.  Here goes.

What should I ask for?  This would be a pretty inopportune time to get writers' block.

I'd like a trading partner for Jay Bruce.  It's clear that the Mets have a glut of outfielders.  One is the team's best offensive threat (Céspedes), one is supposedly the star of the future (Michael Conforto), one is a former Gold Glove winner (Juan Lagares), one always says hi to me when I'm sitting in my Right Field Reserved seats (Curtis Granderson) and the other is Jay Bruce.  I don't really care who you trade him for.  Trade him for a new head athletic trainer for all I care.  Actually, if you trade Bruce AND the team's current athletic trainer in the same deal, you'd be killing two birds with one stone, which is probably a good thing for the birds because if they weren't killed by that single stone, the trainer might have to take a look at them and that would be a fate worse than death.

I would also like a shutdown bullpen, you know, like the Nasty Boys that helped the Reds win their last championship in 1990 or the relievers that helped propel the Cubs and Indians to the World Series last year.  (I'd mention the Royals' bullpen that led the team to two World Series appearances in 2014 and 2015, but it's a little too soon for me.)  With Jeurys Familia possibly missing some time to start the season due to his domestic violence incident (and he should also get coal for what he did), the Mets will need someone with late inning experience to complement Addison Reed.  I'm well aware that relievers can go from Mariano Rivera domination to Mel Rojas abomination in a matter of minutes, but I trust you to find someone with the talent to fill the hole left by the impending absence of Familia.  Oh, and make sure the guy you get us isn't named Armando or have a second cousin once removed in the Benitez family.

Without question, I want good health for the players who lost time in 2016 due to injuries.  You know, like Lucas Duda, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz...  You know what?  Just keep those guys away from the players who managed to stay healthy in 2016 until it's been determined that their injuries aren't contagious.  Though I suppose you wouldn't have to worry about that much with Wright, since he breaks more than wind at a bean burrito eating contest.

I want the Michael Conforto from April 2016 to become the Michael Conforto of every month of the 2017 baseball season.  We've had several one-month wonders in the past.  Does Derek Bell and his red hot start in April 2000 ring a (ahem) bell?  No one expects Conforto to put up the .330/.402/.522 slash line he's produced in 166 career minor league games.  But I do think we should expect more than his .238/.319/.448 performance in 165 contests with the Mets.  Considering that after the 2017 campaign, the Mets won't have Bruce or Granderson on their payroll, Conforto will have to step up to prove that he is going to be a top contributor on this team.  And while I'm at it, can you get Terry Collins to trust him a little more against southpaws?  l know Conforto is probably never going to be a .300 hitter versus left-handed pitchers, but TC has shown as much faith in him against lefties as I have in myself becoming a vegan.  It's time to cut Conforto loose against the world.

Palm trees go with things that are Sandy.  Just hope "Exotic Canadian" isn't a euphemism for Jason Bay.

Speaking of cutting loose, it's time to finally see the Fab Five in action.  I'm talking about having Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler take over this rotation and not let it go until Scott Boras gets Harvey a nine-figure deal to underachieve somewhere else.  Unfortunately, this has yet to happen because Wheeler took a two-year injury sabbatical, Harvey never quite recovered from the ninth inning of Game Five and deGrom and Matz couldn't make 30-plus starts, leaving Syndergaard to do all the heavy lifting in 2016.  And what heavy lifting he did!  Thor basically carried the staff on his back and nearly led them past Madison Bumgarner and the Giants in the Wild Card game.  Imagine if the Mets had several pitchers who could do the same over a full season.  Wait.  They do.  As long as they stay healthy and Yoko Ono doesn't try to break up the band.

I'm a fan of Kelly Johnson.  I really am.  I'm not a fan of losing future major leaguers every time the Mets decide to acquire him during the season.  In 2015, the Mets reeled in Johnson from Atlanta with a package that included John Gant and Robert Whalen.  Both pitchers made it to the majors in 2016 and Gant recorded his first big league victory against the Mets in June.  (It came just three days before my birthday, which was not exactly an ideal gift for me.)  Then after re-signing with the Braves prior to the 2016 campaign, the Mets once again traded for Johnson, sending pitcher Akeel Morris to Atlanta in return for the utility man.  Morris posted a 2.27 ERA for the Braves' Double-A affiliate in 25 appearances following the trade so I wouldn't be surprised if he made it back to the show at some point in 2017.  Therefore, on my wish list, I'd like the Mets to keep Johnson around for the entire 2017 campaign rather than having to sacrifice their young for his services.  We can't keep stuffing the Braves' stockings with so much talent year after year just to get half a season of Kelly Johnson each time.

Finally, I'd like more of those delicious steak frites that you can only find at the Pat LaFrieda joint on the Promenade level.  Why aren't they offered on the field level?  I didn't even know they were an option until we were well into the season.  Also, why was there no Rao's pasta in the Foxwoods Club in 2016 like there was when the area was called the Caesar's Club in previous seasons?  That was my go-to dish when I didn't want to stand in a long line of people who only wanted hot dogs and beer and could have purchased said items from any vendor walking around the ballpark instead of taking up so much space on the line in front of me!  On a related note, I'd also like you to help me control my temper, especially when I'm hungry.

More places in the stadium where these are available would be most welcome.

So that's pretty much what I'm asking you for, Sandy.  Just dump the latest outfielder with the initials J.B. that failed to impress in New York, add a piece or two to the bullpen, keep the players as far away from Ray Ramirez as possible and remind Conforto that his Olympian mom is still the best athlete in the family until he learns how to hit a baseball on a consistent basis.

In addition, all I am saying is don't play Plastic Ono Band music near the starting pitchers and give Kelly Johnson a chance for an entire season.  Oh, and more stands with steak frites around the ballpark and the return of Rao's pasta dishes would be most welcome.  I'm speaking for all Mets fans, of course, not just myself.

Thanks so much for reading my letter, Sandy.  And thank you for what you've done to take this team from a perennial 70-something win squad to a club that has to cancel golf plans in October because playing ball for a title is much more fun than playing with a Titleist ball.

I wish you and your merry little elves a happy holiday season and I can't wait to see what you leave under my tree.  And remember, just because my tree is small doesn't mean you can't put everything I asked for under it.  You're a baseball maverick.  You'll figure out a way.

Love and Shake Shack forever,
Joey Beartran

Hope you get my letter, Sandy Claus.  And my tree really isn't that small; it still towers over me!

Don't Blame The Bullpen, Blame The Bats

Don't worry, Jenrry.  It's not you or your armpit that stinks.  It's the team's hitters. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

Saturday night, the Mets took a 4-3 lead against the Giants into the bottom of the ninth inning.  Closer Jenrry Mejia was called upon to protect the precarious lead, but he proceeded to allow two runs to San Francisco, turning what would have been a satisfying victory into an ugly defeat.

The loss was the 16th suffered by a Mets bullpen that has combined to record 15 saves.  The Mets are one of just four teams in baseball whose relievers have more losses than saves.  The other three are the Colorado Rockies (12 losses, 11 saves), Chicago Cubs (12 losses, 11 saves) and Tampa Bay Rays (12 losses, 9 saves).  Prior to last night's victory over the Dodgers, Colorado had lost eight straight games and 18 of their last 24.  As for the Cubs and Rays, no team in the National League has fewer wins than Chicago, and Tampa has the worst record in all of baseball.  But as unfortunate as the Rockies, Cubs and Rays have been with their bullpens, none of them can match the Mets' 16 relief losses, which are the most by any bullpen in the big leagues.

In addition, last night's game was the Mets' 17th one-run loss of the year.  That's 17 losses by the smallest margin out of their 34 overall defeats, or half of their losses.  The Mets lead all of baseball with their 17 one-run setbacks.  No other club has more than 14 losses by a single run.  And the team with exactly 14 one-run losses is Cincinnati, a team that made the postseason last year but is one of this year's biggest disappointments with a 28-32 record entering Sunday's game.  Another of baseball's most disappointing teams is the Boston Red Sox, who are also under .500 after winning the World Series in 2013.  Not by coincidence, the Red Sox have the most one-run losses (13) in the American League.  But neither Cincinnati, Boston nor any other major league team can say half of their losses have come by a single run.  Only the Mets can claim that.

Six different pitchers (Jenrry Mejia, Kyle Farnsworth, Jose Valverde, Carlos Torres, Jeurys Familia, Daisuke Matsuzaka) have recorded at least one save for the Mets this year.  All six have also been saddled with at least one blown save in 2014.  And that's not including Bobby Parnell, the team's closer going into the season, who blew his only save opportunity before being lost for the year.

With all that negative statistical analysis, you'd think I'm blaming the bullpen for the Mets' inability to put up a few extra wins this year.  But it's the exact opposite.  It's not the bullpen I'm blaming, it's the bats.

Unlike recent seasons, the relievers are actually posting a lower ERA (3.51) than the starting pitchers (3.74).  And many of the relievers' losses this year have come when they've pitched beautifully.  For example, when the Mets lost to the Phillies in 14 innings a week ago, seven relievers combined to allow two runs (one earned) in 9⅓ innings.  But the bullpen got tagged with a loss in the Phillies' eventual triumph.  And yes, it was one of the Mets' MLB-leading 17 one-run losses.

Similarly, on May 9, when the Mets entertained the Phillies at Citi Field, the bullpen was stellar, allowing just one run on three hits in 6⅓ innings of work.  But that lone run was the decisive tally in the Mets' 11-inning loss to Philadelphia.  A one-run loss.  Again.

Those games are just two examples of how the Mets bullpen has been more than adequate this season even if the boxscore continues to show losses for the relievers and one-run defeats for the team.  The two losses to the Phillies have another thing in common.  The bats went to sleep after the starter was taken out of the game.  In the May 9 contest, New York scored one run on just four hits in the seven innings following the departure of starter Jenrry Mejia.  The team was 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position once Mejia was sent to the showers.  Similarly, in last week's 14-inning loss to Philadelphia, the Mets were shut out over the last nine innings, going 0-for-7 when they batted with runners in scoring position.

Last night's game was no different, as the Mets went 3-for-18 with runners in scoring position.  However, all three hits came when starter Bartolo Colon was still in the game.  Once the bullpen was called upon to protect the Mets' lead, the hitters decided to call it a night, going 0-for-9 over the last three innings.  As a result, the lack of an insurance run or two allowed the Giants to chip away at the Mets' lead.  And the end result was a loss by the bullpen and another one-run loss for the team.

Here is the Mets' recipe for playing baseball these days, a recipe that has left a sour taste in the mouths of many Mets fans.

• Get an early lead.
• Mix in a hit with a runner in scoring position.
• Add a relatively strong effort by the bullpen.
• Stop hitting when the lead appears safe.
• Watch the bullpen allow no more than two runs in a one-run loss.
• Repeat.

No team should have more losses from their bullpen than saves.  But the Mets can claim that dubious distinction.  Furthermore, no team should lose half of its games by just one run.  The Mets are alone in that regard.

New York's bullpen is not perfect.  No team's bullpen is.  But the relief corps shouldn't have to shoulder the blame for what the real problem is with the Mets this year.  The team is just not hitting.  They hit enough to put several men on base, then they hit the snooze button just as it appears they're putting a rally together.

Last night's loss and the two losses to the Phillies in May were microcosms of what's plagued the Mets all year.  The bullpen does its job, but the hitters don't do theirs.  It's the reason why players like Travis d'Arnaud (the only player in baseball with 125+ plate appearances who has yet to reach double digits in both runs scored and RBI) get sent down to the minors.  And it's the reason why the Mets are struggling to remain relevant in an otherwise mediocre NL East.

If the Mets were 14-11 in one-run games instead of 8-17, they'd be alone atop the division.  Instead, they're struggling to stay ahead of the Phillies for last place.  Batting .231 with runners in scoring position and having more strikeouts (143) than hits (129) in those situations have a lot to do with the Mets' shortcomings this year.  And don't get me started on the Mets' .159 batting average with the bases loaded or their .128 average with runners on second and third - a situation that is easier to score a run on because there is no force play at any base, unlike the bases loaded situation.

Don't blame the bullpen for the Mets' late-inning losses.  The relief pitchers have done their job better than you think.  Direct your vitriol straight at what passes for the Mets' offense these days.  The team's lack of timely hitting is leaving a bad taste in all of our mouths.  And that's most certainly a recipe for disaster.
 

The Mets Can Win The N.L. East

This scene isn't as impossible as you might think for the Mets in 2013
(other than the Shea Stadium location, of course).

Stop laughing at the title of this post.  I truly mean it when I say the Mets can win the N.L. East.  Sure, the team is still eight games under .500 after splitting a four-game series with the division-leading Atlanta Braves.  And yes, the Mets remain ten games behind the Braves for the top spot in the East.  But there is no reason to think the Mets can't end up on top of their division come September 29, and I have several reasons why.

On the morning of June 18 (otherwise known as "Super Tuesday"), the Mets woke up with a 25-40 record, 14½ games behind the Braves for first place in the eastern division.  They were also seven games behind the second place Nationals and six games behind the third place Phillies.  In the six weeks since Zack Wheeler made his major league debut and Eric Young, Jr. was acquired from the Colorado Rockies, the Mets have a 20-13 record.  The only teams in baseball with more wins than the Mets during that time period are the Los Angeles Dodgers (24-8) and Tampa Bay Rays (24-9).  No other team in the N.L. East has more than 15 wins since June 18.

New York also has many games remaining against teams with losing records.  After their 7-4 victory over the Braves on Thursday, the Mets have 64 games left on their schedule.  Each of their next 14 games is against a team with a losing record.  In all, 44 of their last 64 games are against teams with sub-.500 records.  The Mets play just six series over the next two-plus months against teams that currently have winning records.  Two of those six series are against the Atlanta Braves - a team the Mets have defeated seven times this year, which is the most victories they have against any team in 2013.  Another of those six series is against the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team that is 18-24 since June 5 and has relinquished first place after holding on to the top spot in the N.L. West for most of the season.

Consider this.  Since their 12-1 start, the Braves are 45-44.  That's over half a season of being mediocre.  Meanwhile, the Phillies and Nationals have been mediocre all season.  The Mets, on the other hand, have been far better than a break-even team for well over a month now.

Shaun Marcum has been released, thereby freezing his record for all eternity at 1-10.  Zack Wheeler has replaced him in the rotation with a 4-1 mark.  Dillon Gee has been brilliant over his last ten starts, going 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA.  And the bullpen has finally found its groove, posting a 1.98 ERA in the soon-to-be-completed month of July.  (Matt Harvey is Matt Harvey, so you know he's going to be good.)

The offense has finally clicked as well.  After hitting .229 from April to June (never batting higher than .233 in any calendar month), the Mets are batting .267 in the month of July.  They are still averaging close to one home run per game (92 homers in 98 games), but now they've added the stolen base to their offensive repertoire.  During the season's first three months, the Mets averaged 12.3 thefts per month, never swiping more than 14 bases in any one month.  In the month of July, the Mets have already stolen 20 bases, and that's with the All-Star Break zapping four days off the calendar.

In 1973, the Mets were 12 games under .500 and 11½ games out of first place on the morning of August 6.  They went on to win the division.  In 2001, New York was 14 games under .500 and 13½ games behind the division leader when their alarm clocks went off on August 18.  By September 27, they had cut the lead to three games but fell short of completing their unlikely comeback.

The 2013 Mets are eight games under .500 and ten games behind a team that has been nothing more than mediocre since the third week of the season.  They have less of an uphill climb this year than they had in 1973 and 2001.  Why is it so hard to believe they can't overcome Atlanta, Philadelphia and Washington in a weak division when there's still over two months to go in the regular season, especially when the team is showing that it's getting better offensively and in the bullpen?

It ain't over till it's over.  And with the way the Mets have been playing over the past month and a half, it may not be over anytime soon.  As far-fetched as it may seem, ya gotta believe the Mets can still win the N.L. East.

Joey's Small Bites: What Did I Learn From This Series?

Hello, everyone.  This is your fav'rit Studious Metsimus correspondent/culinary expert, Joey Beartran.  Although today I wish I was just being a culinary expert, because corresponding after this debacle of a series in Colorado is not something I would wish on my worst enemy.  (Actually, that's not true.  I would wish it on Cole Hamels now that I think about it.)

In today's series finale, the Mets fell to the Rockies, 11-3, in the team's first loss in a game started by either Jonathon Niese or Matt Harvey.  Guess we can't blame this on Aaron Laffey.  However, we can blame it on other things.  And I'm just the non-person to do it!

Here are my small bites on today's game, the series in general, and the Mets' all-time history in the Rockies' mile-high ballpark:

• Since Coors Field opened its doors in 1995, the Mets have gone 28-43 (.394 winning percentage) in the Rockies' ballpark.  The only current National League ballpark in which the Mets have fared worse is Atlanta's Turner Field, where the Mets are 45-89 (.336 winning percentage).

• Only two pitchers in Mets history can say they had an ERA under 4.00 at Coors Field (minimum 15 innings pitched).  Those pitchers are Mike Pelfrey (3.47 ERA) and Steve Trachsel (3.71 ERA).  For the record, today's losing pitcher (Jonathon Niese) allowed three earned runs in six innings, lowering his all-time ERA at Coors Field to 6.75.

• The Mets allowed 28 runs (26 earned) to the Rockies in the three-game series.  Compare that to the 27 runs (25 earned) that the Atlanta Braves have allowed ALL SEASON!  And the Mets didn't even get to play the fourth game of the series because of last night's snow-aided postponement.

• Troy Tulowitzki used to be Public Enemy No. 1 whenever the Mets played the Rockies.  But Carlos Gonzalez stepped into that role in this series, going 8-for-13 with two doubles, a triple, a homer, seven runs scored and three RBIs in the three-game sweep.  The Mets had last week's National League Player of the Week in pitcher Matt Harvey.  Harvey's colleagues on the mound did their part to make CarGo this week's frontrunner for the award.

• Speaking of the Mets' pitchers, how about that bullpen?  Last year, the Mets were last in the league in bullpen ERA until the last week of the season.  The 4.65 ERA recorded by Mets' relievers in 2012 was just a Bernie Brewer hair better than Milwaukee's 4.66 bullpen ERA.   This year's bullpen wishes it was that good.  Through 14 games, Mets relievers have a 5.52 ERA, which includes the eight runs given up by the pen in two innings today.

• Believe it or not, there was a bright side to this series.  Wednesday's game was snowed out, meaning the Mets only got the chance to lose three games instead of the four games they could have lost had yesterday's game not been affected by Mother Nature.

• Other bright spots included David Wright (5-for-10, three runs, two homers, five RBIs, one stolen base) and Daniel Murphy (five runs scored, two doubles).  But perhaps the biggest bright spot for the Mets is that they're coming back home (finally) and have Matt Harvey on the mound tomorrow night at Citi Field.

The road trip is finally over!  Time for me (and the Mets) to get back to Citi Field!

The Mets have historically done poorly in Colorado.  This series was no different.  But after a 7-7 start against San Diego, Miami, Philadelphia, Minnesota and Colorado - teams that finished at or below .500 in 2012 - the Mets have to play better starting tomorrow.  And now they have a week of games against the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers to look forward to.

Last year, the Mets did not go below .500 until after the All-Star Break.  This year, they've been at or above the break-even point for all 14 of their games.  But they're going to have to play a lot better to avoid slipping under .500 during the upcoming homestand.

I'll always be a Mets fan, but if the team doesn't show a better effort on the field soon, I might be focusing more on the culinary expert part of my job.  After all, the way this series went in snowy Colorado, I'm going to need something to remove the bad taste from my mouth.

Need A Right-Handed Bat? Call Carlos Quentin

Entering the final game before the All-Star Break, the Mets are 46-39, tied with the San Francisco Giants for the second and final wild card spot.  However, after the Washington Nationals, there are seven teams separated by 2½ games vying for four playoff spots, with the Mets smack-dab in the middle of that crowded pack.

There are too many teams jockeying back and forth for playoff positions, so the Mets are going to need to do something to help them pull away from the competition.  Clearly, their top need remains in the bullpen, but Bobby Parnell has been stepping up recently.  Tim Byrdak has been solid all year.  Since returning from the DL two weeks ago, Ramon Ramirez has not given up an earned run in 5⅓ innings.  And Frank Francisco was finally doing well before he got hurt last month (1.35 ERA, .176 BAA in his last 13 appearances prior to his DL stint).  The bullpen could use a lefty here, a pitcher not named Miguel Batista there.  But getting a right-handed bat might be just as pressing a need for the Mets.

Earlier today, Twitter and radio personality (not to mention podcaster extraordinaire) Mike Silva tweeted the following:

Mets have scouts following Padres big interest in Carlos Quentin. Pads want a couple prospects back. Name mentioned most is Michael Fulmer.
— Mike Silva(@MikeSilvaMedia) July 8, 2012

Carlos Quentin has always had a strong bat.  However, he is prone to injuries.  Ever since his first taste of the big leagues as a 23-year-old in 2006, Quentin has never played more than 131 games in a season.  However, when healthy (as he is now), he can be quite productive.

Quentin began the season on the disabled list, not making his debut with the Padres until May 28.  But once he returned to the team, his bat came along with him.  In 32 games this year, Quentin has batted .273 with 7 doubles, 7 HR and 17 RBI.  He makes excellent contact, striking out 18 times in 110 at-bats, and also has a keen eye at the plate, as evidenced by his .403 on-base percentage.  He is also not afraid to lean in on the plate.  In 2011, Quentin led the majors when he was hit by pitches 23 times.  Despite the fact that he has yet to reach his 30th birthday, Quentin has been hit by 105 pitches, which would make Ron Hunt and Craig Biggio proud.

Although Quentin has a .253 career batting average, he has always been at his best in clutch situations.  With runners in scoring position, he has a lifetime .281 batting average.  He is also a .324 career hitter with a runner on third and less than two outs, meaning he doesn't just make productive outs to drive in runs - he extends rallies by getting run-scoring hits.

There is always a question mark with Quentin when it comes to his health.  But when he's on the field, he's an above-average player who makes solid contact and can hit the ball out of any ballpark.  Think about this.  In only 110 at-bats, Quentin has hit seven home runs playing half of his games at Petco Park.  That's second on the team in homers, one behind team leader Chase Headley, who has hit eight home runs in 311 at-bats.  Headley has needed almost three times the number of at-bats Quentin has to hit one more home run.  Imagine what Quentin can do playing half of the season's remaining games at the more hitter-friendly Citi Field than in spacious Petco Park.

Finally, as a right-handed hitter, Quentin would help improve the Mets' chances against left-handed pitchers.  The Mets are an awful 12-20 in games started by southpaws, as opposed to a 34-19 record when facing a right-handed starter.  Quentin would combine with David Wright and Scott Hairston (who would move over to right field to give Lucas Duda a day off against a left-handed starter) to form a potent right-handed middle of the batting order against southpaws.

Carlos Quentin is available and the Padres are serving him up on a trade bait platter.  The Mets should reel him in before someone else snags him away.  He could be the equalizer the Mets need whenever their opponent starts a left-handed pitcher.

Relief Isn't Coming ... And I Don't Think It Should

Much has been said about the Mets' bullpen woes in 2012.  Their 5.53 ERA is the worst in baseball.  So is their 1.56 WHIP.  They also have the most blown saves (13) in the majors.  That's not exactly something to be proud of.  But it's also not something that I feel should be replaced from outside the organization.

I believe the Mets' bullpen will either correct itself or will have new members courtesy of the team's minor league system.  Why do I feel the bullpen can correct itself?  I think the following numbers will answer that question for me.

The starting staff, which has been better than expected, has pitched 366 innings, which is more than twice as many innings as the bullpen has thrown (174).  But only 18 batters have reached on errors while the starting pitcher has been on the mound.  That's an average of one batter reaching via an error every 20.3 innings.  Meanwhile, ten batters have reached base against a reliever because of the Mets' shoddy defense.  That's one extra runner every 17.4 innings, making it all the more difficult for the bullpen to get out of jams their defense caused for them.

Let's also take a look at a category we don't consider much here - BABIP.  An average hitter will have a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) somewhere in the .290 to .310 range.  The starting staff has kept opposing hitters within that range (.294).  However, the BABIP against the bullpen is a whopping .333, well outside the average range.  That suggests that before long, balls put in play against the bullpen will eventually find gloves, not holes.  Of course, if those gloves have holes...

Therefore, what the Mets really need to do is improve their defense, especially in the late innings when the relief corps is called upon to hold onto leads or keep games close.  The Mets can make a trade for an established reliever to help out.  But what good is he going to be if his defense doesn't help him out?  Is he supposed to strike out every batter he faces?

The BABIP suggests the Mets' bullpen will fix itself.  Improved defense will also help them do their jobs.  Don't give up on the bullpen just yet.  They might end up providing relief to themselves without any outside help.

Of Multi-Run Homers And Mets

There has been much talk about the failures of the Mets' bullpen this year.  Although it is true that most of the bullpen has underachieved, save for Bobby Parnell and Tim Byrdak, I'm not placing all the blame on the relievers.  In fact, it's not WHO is giving up the runs, but WHEN and HOW they're being given up.  Let me explain what I mean.

In 2011, Mets pitchers (starters and relievers) allowed 147 home runs.  Here is the breakdown of those homers:

• Solo homers: 94 (63.9% of all homers hit producing 94 runs)
• Two-run homers: 34 (23.1%, 68 runs scored)
• Three-run homers: 16 (10.9%, 48 runs scored)
• Grand slams: 3 (2.0%, 12 runs scored) 

• Total homers: 147 (producing 222 runs, an average of 1.51 runs scoring on each homer)

Now let's do a similar breakdown for 2012.  In the season's first 41 games, the Mets have allowed 44 home runs.  The results are quite different, especially the percentages and the runs scored per homer.

• Solo homers: 18 (40.9% of all homers hit producing 18 runs)
• Two-run homers: 16 (36.4%, 32 runs scored)
• Three-run homers: 7 (15.9%, 21 runs scored)
• Grand slams: 3 (6.8%, 12 runs scored)

• Total homers: 44 (producing 83 runs, an average of 1.89 runs scoring on each homer)

In 2011, the majority of the homers given up by Mets pitchers were of the solo variety.  This year, almost 60% of home runs allowed have come with men on base.  That means more runs are coming via the homer and the opposition is putting up more crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

But it's not just the abundance of base runners scoring on balls that leave the yard that's troubling to me.  It's when these blasts are occurring.  Let's look at 2011 vs. 2012 and compare the home runs hit in each season, looking specifically at the number of outs in the inning at the time the home runs were hit.


2011: 147 home runs allowed

• No outs: 48 HR
• One out: 64 HR
• Two outs: 35 HR

2012: 44 home runs allowed

• No outs: 13 HR
• One out: 14 HR
• Two outs: 17 HR

As you can see, in 2011, Mets pitchers were especially stingy with the long ball when they were one out away from ending the inning.  The exact opposite has been true in 2012, as opposing hitters have been more likely to hit home runs as the inning progresses.

The 2012 Mets have been at or above .500 all year.  But looking at the pitching stats above, if things don't change soon with regards to home runs allowed, the Mets might be on the south side of .500 before long.  Giving up too many home runs with men on base and allowing home runs with two outs will tend to do that to a team.

The Mets Have A Bad Case of B.O. (Bullpen Overload)

The Mets gave up a couple of touchdowns to the Toronto Blue Jays in their 14-5 loss on Friday.  But I'm not going to talk about that.  I'm also not going to talk about the whiplash Jonathon Niese must have suffered from turning his neck so quickly to watch all the home runs leaving the yard.  Here, let me just show you what I'm going to talk about.

• R.A. Dickey: 8 starts, 50⅓ innings pitched, 6.29 IP/start
• Johan Santana: 8 starts, 43⅔ innings pitched, 5.46 IP/start
• Jonathon Niese: 8 starts, 42⅔ innings pitched, 5.33 IP/start
• Dillon Gee: 7 starts, 43 innings pitched, 6.14 IP/start
• Mike Pelfrey: 3 starts, 19⅔ innings pitched, 6.56 IP/start
• Miguel Batista: 3 starts, 16 innings pitched, 5.33 IP/start
• Chris Schwinden: 2 starts, 8 innings pitched, 4.00 IP/start

• Total: 39 starts, 223⅓ innings pitched, 5.73 IP/start

Do you see the problem there?  No?  Perhaps this will help you see.  The Mets as a team have pitched 345⅓ innings in 2012.  That means more than one-third of the innings pitched (35.3% to be exact) have been pitched by relievers.

And who are those relievers?  Well, you have Manny Acosta (10.53 ERA), Frank Francisco (8.04 ERA), the recently-ousted D.J. Carrasco (7.36 ERA), Jon Rauch (4.32 ERA) and Ramon Ramirez (4.30 ERA).  Only Bobby Parnell and Tim Byrdak have ERAs under 4.00 of relievers with at least four appearances.  (That's why you're not seeing backup catcher Rob Johnson's 0.00 ERA.  Oh, you didn't hear?  He pitched one inning of relief during Friday night's debacle, doing his best Desi Relaford impression by retiring the side in order.  Here's photo evidence...)

When Josh Thole returns from the DL, Rob Johnson might still have a role on the team as a reliever.

Anytime a bullpen gives up more than a run every other inning, you have a flawed bullpen.  But when that bullpen is getting as much use as the Mets are giving them, then you have a flawed team.

The Mets are still doing better than expected, with a 21-18 record, but in the stacked NL East, that's just barely keeping them out of last place.  (The Phillies bring up the rear with a 21-19 mark.)  If the starting pitchers can't give the team a minimum of six innings, and hopefully more, then all the positivity built up from the team's strong start will go out the window.  The bullpen, as it stands, is simply not very good.  Unfortunately, they're being given too many chances to show us that.

It's time for Santana, Dickey, Niese, Batista and Gee to eat up innings for the Mets.  If they don't, it'll be the opposing hitters who will continue to feast on the bullpen.  And that will leave a bad taste in the mouths of all Mets fans.

A Short Post on Daniel Herrera

Last year, the Mets acquired Daniel Herrera from the Milwaukee Brewers in the Francisco Rodriguez deal.  The diminutive lefty pitched surprisingly well for the Mets after his acquisition, allowing only one run in 16 appearances.  At Citi Field, he allowed no runs in ten relief appearances.

Despite his unexpected success with the Mets, Herrera was placed on waivers in January to make room for backup infielder Ronny Cedeño on the 40-man roster.  Two months later, after not being claimed by another team, Herrera has found his way back to the Mets, trying to compete for a spot in the bullpen.

As of now, the only lefty guaranteed to be a part of the relief corps is Tim Byrdak.  Robert Carson was vying to become the second lefty in the Mets bullpen, but he suffered an abdominal muscle strain last week, making it unlikely for him to break camp when the team comes north in four weeks.

So why not give Daniel Herrera a chance to make the team out of spring training?  We already saw what can happen when a team relies too much on one lefty specialist in the bullpen.  The Mets used Pedro Feliciano ad nauseum from 2008 to 2010.  Then he signed with the Yankees prior to the 2011 season and is currently tied with me in relief appearances for the Bronx Bombers.

Over the past three seasons, Tim Byrdak has not been used as much as Feliciano was.  (Byrdak has made 212 appearances since 2009, while Feliciano appeared in 266 games over his last three seasons in the majors.)  But Byrdak is now 38.  If he's the only lefty in the Mets' bullpen, he may be overused.  Overusage and advanced age don't mix very well.

Daniel Herrera is only 27.  He has only pitched in 131 games in parts of four seasons in the majors.  That's less than half the games Feliciano pitched in during his final three seasons with the Mets.  He is also effective against lefties, allowing only three hits to them after his trade to the Mets.  It appears as if the bullpen will be comprised of Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez, Tim Byrdak and Manny Acosta, with two (or three, if the Mets choose to go with 13 pitchers) of the remaining spots to be filled by either Bobby Parnell, D.J. Carrasco, Miguel Batista, Pedro Beato or Herrera.  It should be noted that Herrera is the only southpaw in that final group.

The Mets might have more experience with Parnell, Carrasco, et al., but they really need another lefty in the bullpen after Byrdak.  Byrdak's ERA has gone up in every year since 2009 and over the past two seasons, he has allowed 113 base runners in 76.1 innings.  That's not good enough if he's to be the Mets' sole southpaw.  If the Mets want another option to face lefties, then the man they should turn to is Daniel Herrera.  He's earned his chance.  Now it's time to give him the ball.  Herrera might be small in stature, but given the opportunity, he can play a big role in the Mets bullpen.

Mets Addressing Bullpen Needs, But Not How You Think

With numerous holes to fill, the Mets have decided to address their bullpen first. However, they're not talking about adding another lefty to assist Perpetual Pedro Feliciano or a set-up man for Francisco Rodriguez. Instead, the issues with the bullpen being addressed are where each bullpen will be located at Citi Field in 2010.

In his blog for the Star-Ledger today, Brian Costa reported that the bullpens at Citi Field are being restructured so that each team can have a non-obstructed view of the playing field. When the bullpens were originally constructed, the Mets claimed the bullpen adjacent to the field while the visiting team was given the dungeon. In all honesty, those players had a better view of the auto body shops on 126th Street than they had of the events taking place on the field.

It was always difficult for TV cameras to focus on which relievers were warming up in the opponents' bullpen because those pitchers were invisible to mostly everyone. The people who had the best view of those relievers were the fans posing for pictures by the old Shea Stadium Home Run Apple near the bullpen gate entrance to Citi Field.

What I'm curious to know is what this will do to the configurations of Citi Field. Consider the picture of the Citi Field bullpens shown below as they appeared during the 2009 season:


The Mets are planning on positioning the bullpens side-to-side, where the relief pitcher warming up will be throwing towards the outfield fence. Looking at the current dimensions of the bullpen, it doesn't appear to be feasible to position the home and away bullpens in this new way without moving the fences in front of the bullpen or behind it, although Costa's blog states that the bullpens can be positioned in this fashion.

The Mets have already said that they will not be altering the dimensions of Citi Field for the 2010 season. So what's going on here? Personally, I wouldn't mind the right field fences being moved in a few feet. It actually has nothing to do with the potential for more home runs being hit into the bullpen area.

Remember how Carlos Beltran used to glide towards the fence at Shea Stadium before timing his leap perfectly to rob an opposing player of a home run? I can't recall Beltran or any other player this past season robbing a hitter of a potential home run. The only places where the fence is short enough for this to happen is at the bullpen wall or down the right field line. Unfortunately, given the deep dimensions of Citi Field, by the time the centerfielder gets to the wall, the ball has already gone over it.

Another thing that bugs me about this move is that the Mets are doing this to accommodate the visiting teams. At Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, the visiting team's bullpen is located above the Phillies bullpen, placing oppposing pitchers directly underneath the highly opinionated Phillies fans who are not shy to express their feelings about those pitchers from close range. The Phillies have not realigned their bullpens to make their opponents more comfortable, so why should the Mets do so?

It just seems like an unnecessary move to me. It makes it appear as if the Mets are more concerned for the teams we root against rather than the team we root for. Of course, if they're doing this because John Lackey or Roy Halladay prefers the bullpen to be facing in the new direction, then I'm all for it!

Joey's Soapbox: My Unbiased LCS Picks

Greetings, SMFs and welcome to the latest edition of Joey's Soapbox! Your favorite teddy bear blogger was stranded in Colorado due to the recent snow event that temporarily postponed Game 3 of the NLDS between the Phillies and Rockies.

Fortunately, I have my hoodie and an internet connection so I can present my unbiased picks for the American and National League Championship Series. Remember, I'm picking the best teams, not the teams I want to defeat the Yankees and the Phillies.


American League Championship Series

Yankees vs. Angels

If there's one team who has had the Yankees' number over the years, it's the Los Angeles Angels of Wallyworld. Since Derek Jeter's rookie season in 1996, the Angels are 73-63 against the Yankees. That's the best record compiled by any team against the Bronx Bummers. In that time, the Angels have also defeated the Yankees twice in the postseason.

Joe Girardi has stated that the Yankees will be using a three-man rotation in the series. That means Subway spokeseater CC Sabathia could potentially make three starts if the series goes seven games. How did C(onstantly) C(hewing) Sabathia do against the Disney team in 2009?

• May 2: 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 hits, 1 BB
• July 12: 6.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 hits, 3 BB

That adds up to a 6.08 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. It also adds up to two losses. The only other team Sabathia lost to twice in 2009 was Tampa Bay, although his second loss to the Rays was in his last start after the Yankees had already clinched the division title.

If CC continues to pitch against the Angels as he did in the regular season, home field advantage will mean nothing in this series.

Prediction: Angels in 6. The Yankees may have won the Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia sweepstakes from the Angels, but that won't put them in the Fall Classic. Joe Girardi's success is due to the players he inherited. Mike Scioscia's success is due to his superior managerial skills. The Angels will win their second pennant and Aunt Coop will be quite happy!


National League Championship Series

Phillies vs. Dodgers

This is the fifth NLCS matchup between the Phightin' Phils and the Better Team. The Dodgers won the first two matchups in 1977 and 1978, while the Phillies won the last two in 1983 and 2008. Last year, the Phillies defeated the Dodgers in five games, but the Dodgers barely made it to the postseason, winning 84 regular season games. This year, Los Angeles finished with the best record in the National League and have been on a mission since the season started.

The Phillies lost four of the seven regular season matchups against the Dodgers. Three of the four losses were credited to the bullpen (Chad Durbin lost twice and Brad Lidge lost once).

Philadelphia won the last two games of the NLDS against the Rockies in the ninth inning. The Dodgers have Ronald Belisario (4-3, 2.04 ERA), Ramon Troncoso (5-4, 2.72 ERA) and closer Jonathan Broxton (7-2, 2.61 ERA). If the Phillies want to win this series, they'd better have a big lead early in the game. Games that go down to the last at-bat are determined by the bullpens and the Dodgers' bullpen is superior to the Phillies' pen.

Prediction: Dodgers in 6. Fred Wilpon has already been looking for a spot on the left field wall at Citi Field to put up a Dodgers' 2009 World Championship banner. The Dodgers will continue to give him hope for his banner after dispatching the Phillies.


That means we'll be having a Freeway Series this year between the Angels and the Dodgers. That's fine with me. A Yankees-Phillies matchup wouldn't have been as attractive to my unbiased self.

See you next week when I get back on my soapbox to give you my World Series predictions, assuming I can get out of this Winter Wonderland in one piece!