Joey's Soapbox: My 2019 Not-At-All Biased World Series Pick

I'm either looking at the yummy food in Houston or I'm following the flight of Jose Altuve's home run.

How is everyone doing?  I'm Joey Beartran and like Tony the Tiger, I'm feeling GRRRRRRRREAT!!  And I have Jose Altuve to thank for me being so upbeat.

I had always been a fan of Altuve, mainly because he's the only major leaguer who's my height.  But now, after hitting a walk-off, pennant-winning homer against the Yankees, I love him even more.  His blast allowed me to go 2-for-2 in my League Championship Series predictions, and that's the only reason why I'm this excited today.  Not because the Yankees lose, thaaaaaaaaaa Yankees loooooose.  That would be biased of me, and I'm not at all biased.

Thanks to Altuve's heroics, we now have a World Series that will be anything but boring, with intriguing pitching matchups in practically every game.  The Fall Classic will also feature teams that had combined to win just two pennants prior to this year, which hadn't happened since 1980, when the Philadelphia Phillies (who had previously won pennants in 1915 and 1950) faced the Kansas City Royals (who had never won a pennant).

Will the Washington Nationals win their first championship?  Will the Houston Astros tie the Mets for most titles for teams that played their first game in 1962?  Will the Yankees ever learn how to count past twenty-seven?  The answers to the first two questions will be revealed below.  The answer to third question is no, they will not.

The people who made this shirt should be happy they never have to update it.

World Series

Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros

For the opening act, we have Max Scherzer vs. Gerrit Cole.  Then we have Stephen Strasburg vs. Justin Verlander in Game Two.  And if that's not enough to whet your pitching appetite, it's Patrick Corbin vs. Zack Greinke in Game Three.  How's that for must-see TV?

The Astros batted just .179 against the Yankees in the ALCS, which doesn't bode well for them against the vaunted Nationals staff.  That Nats staff didn't throw a single pitch in the NLCS with the team trailing, as Washington led throughout their four-game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals.  That might change in the World Series if Houston continues to jump on top early.  Of the 22 runs scored by the Astros in the ALCS, ten of them crossed the plate in the first three innings.

Washington is a very streaky team.  During their current six-game winning streak, they've outscored the opposition, 33-10.  They also scored 166 runs during a 21-game stretch in late August and early September.  But the Nats can also go cold at the plate, as evidenced by the 61 times this year (58 regular season and three postseason games) they failed to score more than three runs in a game.  By comparison, the Mets scored three runs or fewer in 54 games this season.

If the Nationals could be held in check that many times this year when they didn't face past, present and future Cy Young Award winners every game, imagine what they'll look like against Cole, Verlander and Greinke.

Then there's the case of the bullpens.  Washington's bullpen is such a mess that manager Dave Martinez went with his starters in relief on various occasions to navigate through the playoffs.  Meanwhile, Houston's bullpen was one of the team's many strengths, posting a 3.75 ERA during the regular season.  That's nearly two full runs lower than the Washington's 5.68 ERA for its relievers.  If a game comes down to Altuve and his brothers facing the Nats' relief corps, I'll put my lunch money on Mini-Me and the 'Stros.

I think it's clear who I'm picking to win the World Series.  But if it still isn't obvious to you, please think about this.

The Washington Nationals play their home opener next year on April 2.  Their opponent that day will be the New York Mets.  Do you really want to see them rub their World Series rings in our faces?  I think not.  Let them raise their National League pennant against us in 2020.  For this season, it'll be the Astros who will #TakeItBack.

Prediction: Astros in 6.

Little man on paper.  Big man on campus.  (Photo by F. Carter Smith)

Joey's Soapbox: My 2019 Not-At-All Biased LCS Picks

Please read my picks while I make a pit stop at Walgreens.  (Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus)

What's good, kids?  This is Joey Beartran and we've reached baseball's final four.  And unfortunately, this year's pair of League Championship Series feature quite a few teams that I did not predict to advance this far.  In fact, the only team that did make it to the LCS as I foretold was the Houston Astros.

Batting .250 in the division series round means that I have some work to do to improve as a fearless forecaster.  But at least I can make myself feel better by saying I had a better chance of picking a winner in the last round than Hall of Famer and franchise legend Gary Carter had of collecting a base hit as a member of the New York Mets.  (He hit .249 while wearing the racing stripes and shooting Ivory Soap commercials.)

This year's National and American League Championship Series feature intriguing matchups.  In the Senior Circuit, we have the Washington Nationals, who are making their first NLCS appearance since moving to our nation's capital from Montreal and just the second final four appearance in the 51-year history of the Expos/Nationals franchise.  Their opponent, the St. Louis Cardinals, have appeared in 14 League Championship Series since the Expos/Nats last played in one.  The Redbirds are also making their 11th NLCS appearance in the last 24 seasons.

Moving over to the A.L., we have the New York Yankees, who are playing in their 1,000th League Championship Series in club history, according to what their fans say.  They'll be taking on the Houston Astros, a team which is appearing in its third consecutive ALCS.  This is also a rematch of the 2017 battle for the American League pennant, a series won by Houston in seven games.

Will the Cardinals win their 20th National League pennant or will the Nationals win their first?   Can Houston make its third World Series appearance of the 21st century and second in three seasons?  And how many times will Yankee fans remind us of their ringzzzzz?

You can either watch these four-plus hour contests that feature starters pitching in relief and 20,000 or so home runs (by coincidence, that's the same number of division titles the Yankees have, which must be true because I was assured of that fact by a long-time Yankee fan who said he knows everything about the team since he became a fan in 1996) or you can just read my predictions below while pondering just how many words I can fit in one sentence.  (Run-on sentence much?)

I'd take the "read my predictions" option if I were you.


National League Championship Series

Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Although the Cardinals have home field advantage because they were a division champion, the Nationals actually finished with the better record (93-69, while the Cards were 91-71).  However, it was St. Louis that won the season series in this matchup, taking five of seven against Washington.

Nationals ace Max Scherzer was defeated twice by the Cardinals by identical 5-1 scores, while Washington's bats hit the snooze button in their regular season meetings with St. Louis, scoring just 17 runs in the seven games.

But that was a different Nationals team.  This group of Nats come back from two-run, eighth-inning deficits in wild card games instead of choking postseason advancement away as per the usual Washington script.  This group of Nationals erase two-games-to-one deficits in a best-of-five series and take future Hall of Fame pitchers deep on back-to-back pitches in the late innings of do-or-die games.  For everything this group of Washingtonians does now, there's one thing the team no longer does.

They don't pay Bryce Harper's salary.

These Nats don't choke.  (Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

Harper's .211 lifetime postseason batting average in a Nationals uniform is long gone, as he is now helping the Philadelphia Phillies underachieve.  But you know who is in Washington?  Anthony Rendon and his .412 batting average and 1.219 OPS in the just-completed series against the Dodgers.  So is Juan Soto and his 1.020 OPS in the same series.

Basically, all the Nationals had to do was cut ties with the hair-flipping Papelbonian punching bag and they were destined to win a playoff series and perhaps two.

The Nationals won't win this series because the pitching firm of Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin will keep the Cardinals' already low .245 batting average in check.  They also won't win because their relievers won't get the chance to blow leads if they're hardly ever used.  Nope.  All they need is the knowledge that Bryce Harper is busy playing golf and getting another one of his managers fired (the 2020 season will see Harper playing under his sixth different skipper in nine seasons) and that'll be enough to advance to the franchise's first World Series.

Prediction: Nationals in 7.


American League Championship Series

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros

The Yankees can only win when they outslug you.  It's true.  When they scored five runs or fewer, their record was 31-53.  We're not talking about being 22 games under .500 when they score no more than two runs.  We're talking FIVE RUNS OR FEWER.  And even when they scored half a dozen runs or more, they still managed to lose six times.

Considering that New York will now be facing a dominant Houston pitching staff that held its opponents to four runs or fewer in 112 games (for all you kids out there, that's more than two-thirds of the games they played), it's going to be very difficult for the Yankees to keep up with the Astros.

Oh, and since we're on the topic of pitching, allow me to remind you that the Yankees allowed five runs or more in nearly half of their games (72 out of 162) and will now be facing an Astros lineup that averaged 5.7 runs per contest.

The Yankees have a great past.  But it's the Astros who have a great present and future.  And looking a week into the future, I see the Astros playing in the World Series.

Predictions: Astros in 6.

If S.I. says it, then it has to be true.  (courtesy Sports Illustrated)

Joey's Soapbox: My 2019 Not-At-All Biased Division Series Picks

Minnesota hit the target (the outfield seats) a major-league record 307 times.  (Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus)

Hey, everyone!  This is Joey Beartran, and it's time to share my picks for the American and National League Division Series.  As usual, none of these picks will be biased because I'd lose all my credibility if they were.  You know, kinda like when the Wilpons lose their credibility as big-market owners every year during free agent signing season.

All my picks will be based as endless data that I've pored over for days.  I've considered pitching matchups, weather factors, if a stadium favors one team over another, and who's playing that team from the Bronx.  All of that information has led me to pick four winners who will compete in the League Championship Series.

Who will advance?  Will Minnesota do what no Twins team has done before in October against the Yankees?  Will the Nationals finally win a playoff series?  (Don't you dare say they just did.  They won the Wild Card Game, not the Wild Card Series.)  Will Houston have a problem against Tampa Bay?  And will I watch any games in the series featuring the last two teams to eliminate the Mets in the NLCS (Braves in 1999, Cardinals in 2006)?

The time has come for me to share my Division Series picks.


National League Division Series

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves

I'm only picking the winner of this series because I have to, not because I want to.  Both teams have been a thorn in the Mets' side over the years, so I'm not particularly thrilled that one of them is going to play for the right to represent the National League in the World Series.  But I'm a professional, so I'll actually pick a team to win for a reason other than a meteor striking the other team's dugout, frying every player on the roster to a crisp and causing a forfeit.

The Cardinals made the playoffs as a division champion despite having the tenth-best record in the majors.  Their team batting average was only .245 and they had the fourth-fewest homers in the National League.  Their starting rotation is Jack Flaherty and the Mediocre Men.  If you want to argue that Dakota Hudson had a 16-7 record, I'll respond by pointing at his 1.41 WHIP.  Bring up Adam Wainwright and his Death-To-Beltran curveball and I'll show you his 4.19 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and .782 OPS against him.  Plus, Yadier Molina is playing in his 20th postseason series.  I've had enough of seeing him in October.

Meanwhile, Atlanta earned their trip to the playoff party, winning 97 games and graciously allowing the Mets to sweep them at the end of the season so that New York could finish ten games above .500.  Now that's southern hospitality right there.

Up, up and away. (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) 

The Braves have Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuña Jr, Ozzie Albies and Josh Donaldson leading the offense, while the rotation of Mike Soroka, Dallas Keuchel, Max Fried and Julio Teheran is among the best in the league.  But those players aren't why I'm leaning towards picking Atlanta.

#VoteMarkakis.  It was cool in 2013.  It's still cool now.  And Nick Markakis - who's advanced to the League Championship Series just once in his 14-year career - is going to make the Cardinals buckle before him.  You know, kinda like what Adam Wainwright did to that future Hall of Famer in 2006.

I'm voting Braves in this series.

Prediction: Braves in 4.


Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Let me begin by bringing up something I mentioned before.  The Nationals have never won a postseason series.  Ever.  They won the Wild Card GAME, not the Wild Card SERIES.  Plus, Wikipedia told me they haven't won a playoff series, and as we all know, if Wikipedia says so, then it must be true.

That being said, the Dodgers have too many weapons for Washington to handle.

Whatever.  (David Crane/LA Daily News)

Cody Bellinger led the Dodgers in hits, walks, home runs, RBI, runs scored, stolen bases and probably put on a vendor uniform and sold some Dodger Dogs between innings when no one was looking.  He's that talented.  And even when Bellinger had a rare bad night (like going 1-for-4 with a walk), his teammates were there to pick him up.  Joc Pederson and Max Muncy combined for 71 homers.  Corey Seager ripped 44 doubles and drove in 87 runs despite missing 28 games.  And Justin Turner was magically delicious as always, batting .290 and tying a career high with 27 homers.

The Nationals may have the three-headed pitching monster of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, but it was the Dodgers who led the league in ERA and WHIP.  Los Angeles also allowed just 185 home runs, which was the fewest given up by any National League staff.

If that's not enough for you to figure out who I'm picking in this series, consider this.  In using Scherzer for five innings in the Wild Card Game (still not a series) and Strasburg for three frames, neither pitcher will be available to pitch in the first two games of the Division Series, with Scherzer due to start Game Three and Strasburg toiling in Game Four.

In 2012, the Nationals famously shut down Strasburg before he got a chance to pitch in the Division Series.  He's not pitching in this series either, but this time it'll be because the Dodgers are shutting down Strasburg's team.

Prediction: Dodgers in 3.


American League Division Series

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros

The Rays are a great story.  On a budget that would make the Wilpons proud, they've managed to lead the American League in ERA and allowed the fewest long balls in the majors in a year when baseball went homer happy.  They've continued to use an "opener" instead of a starting pitcher to great success, which allowed Tampa to limit its starters' innings to keep their arms fresh.  (Only Charlie Morton worked more than 150 innings this season.)

On the offensive side, the Rays got an incredible year from Austin Meadows, who launched 33 homers in 138 games after hitting just six in 59 games prior to the 2019 campaign.  They also got Travis d'Arnaud to come out of his shell, as he finally reached his potential with the bat just months after he played his final game with the Mets.

As I said, the Rays have been a fantastic story in 2019.  But dude, they're playing the Houston Astros.  And no one is beating a team that has Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke putting up zeroes and Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel blasting balls all over the field.  Oh, and let's not forget shortstop Carlos Correa, who's been injured for most of the season, but still managed to hit 21 homers and put up a .926 OPS in 75 games.  Correa is expected to be ready for Game One of the Division Series.

It was fun while it lasted, Tampa.  But the Astros are a team of destiny.

Prediction: Astros in 4.

Is Jose Altuve trying to give Cody Bellinger a run for his money as part-time All-Star, part-time hot dog vendor?

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

I'll make this one quick and painless.  The Yankees are 13-2 all-time against the Twins in the postseason.  But they've never faced a Minnesota team that can beat them at their own game.

The Yankees hit 306 home runs to shatter their major league home record, which was 267.  Except that the Twins hit 307 to erase the Yankees from the record book.

New York's starting pitchers don't miss bats, as evidenced by James Paxton's team-leading 186 strikeouts.  With Domingo German out for the postseason, no other Yankee on the postseason roster reached 150 Ks.  Pitching to contact against a team that makes powerful contact isn't a recipe for success for any team, no matter how many ringzzzzz they have.

By the time this series is over, the Yankees will have lost five postseason games to the Twins all-time.  Which will give them plenty of time to treat their necks for whiplash from watching all of Minnesota's home runs.

Prediction: Twins in 5.

Smile!  The Twins are finally going to (boom) stick it to the Yankees.  (Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports)

Joey's Soapbox: My 2019 Not-At-All Biased Wild Card Game Picks

It's Miller Time!  But are the Nationals going to shut down the Brew Crew's party?  (Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus)

What's going on, everyone?  This is your favorite fearless forecaster, Joey Beartran.  And I don't know how effective I'll be picking other teams to win, especially since I'm still on a high from the Mets' season-ending walk-off victory.

Finishing ten games over .500 wasn't good enough to get the Mets into the playoffs, as they finished three games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the second wild card.  But at least they're not the 93-win Cleveland Indians, who became a fringe playoff team themselves when they allowed the small-market Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics to beat them to the postseason party.

Speaking of fringe teams, the Philadelphia Phillies paid $330 million to Bryce Harper, who led them to the promised land of a .500 record.  That's over $100 million more than the Washington Nationals are offering Anthony Rendon, otherwise known as the player who was the real offensive leader of the Nats all these years.  And the player who could possibly be one of just 25 who can say they helped Washington advance in the postseason for the first time ever.

But will Washington finally celebrate something other than a division title or wild card berth?  Will Milwaukee continue to win one for the Yelich?  How about the Rays, who are making their first playoff appearance with a skipper not named Joe Maddon?  Or will the A's move on for the first time in five trips to the postseason under manager Bob Melvin?

I guess it's time for me to put on my thinking cap (or the hood from my Mets hoodie, since that's the only article of clothing I wear) and share my predictions for the American and National League Wild Card games.  And of course, there's no chance those picks will be biased.  Not at all.


National League Wild Card Game

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals

We all know the Nationals' history in the postseason.  Four appearances, four quick exits.  Meanwhile, every time the Brewers have qualified for the postseason since moving to the National League in 1998, they've won more playoff games than they did in their previous playoff appearance.  Milwaukee won one postseason game in 2008, then followed that up with five playoff victories in 2011.  Last year, the Brewers fell one win short of their second-ever trip to the World Series.

Both teams are hungry.  Milwaukee is hungry for a pennant, while Washington is hungry for their first-ever October champagne celebration (which is weird because how can a team be hungry for a liquid?)

Let's look at the pitching matchup, because as we all know, pitching wins Wild Card Game championships.

The Nationals will trot out Max Scherzer, whose seven-year, $210 million contract has produced zero postseason wins in three starts and one relief appearance.  Scherzer will also be pitching on six days rest, which usually helps a pitcher.  However, this season Scherzer made four starts on six or more days rest.  He won none of them, producing a 3.28 ERA in those well-rested appearances, which was nearly half a run higher than the 2.86 ERA he put up in his other 23 starts.

Milwaukee's starter will be Brandon Woodruff, who has a lifetime 1.46 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in four career postseason appearances.  Those numbers look good on paper.  You know what looks better on paper?  His 0.96 ERA and 0.70 lifetime WHIP against the Nationals in four appearances.  And I haven't even mentioned that he's struck out 23 Washingtonians while walking just two.  (Okay, maybe I just did.)

The face of a philosopher. (Getty Images)

And the pièce de résistance?  The next extra-base hit a Nationals player collects against Woodruff will be the first.  You read that right.  In his four appearances against Washington, Woodruff has faced 68 batters and has yet to allow an extra-base hit to any of them.

I believe it was the great former Mets shortstop Rafael Santana who once said, "Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it."  (I also believe my Studious Metsimus colleague is passing me a note saying that it was actually George Santayana who said this.  What does he know about famous quotes?)  With or without Bryce Harper, the Nationals will always be doomed to repeat their postseason failures.  Scherzer might be a future Hall of Famer, but 'Ol Blue Eye is not a future wild card game winner.  At least not until he signs with another team.

Prediction:  Milwaukee will advance to the NLDS.


American League Wild Card Game

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics

So remember what I said about pitching winning championships?  Well, we're going to get some pitching in this game.  Unless things change, Oakland will be going with Sean Manaea, who made just five starts this season, but posted a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in his September to remember.  Tampa will be going with All-Star Charlie Morton, who went 16-6 and struck out 240 batters in just 194.2 IP.  And if you recognize his name, it's probably because you recall how great he was for the Houston Astros in the 2017 World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, winning the seventh and deciding game to give Houston its first-ever championship.  In other words, he's got what it takes to pitch in a win-or-go-home game.

Manaea was great in September, but his last four starts were against the Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers (twice) and Seattle Mariners.  Those three teams combined to finish 99 games under .500, meaning Jeurys Familia and Edwin Díaz could probably shut them down as well.

In addition, Tampa's lineup is as consistent as they come.  Nine players had 300 or more plate appearances.  Eight of those players had between 14 and 21 home runs.  (The one who didn't, Austin Meadows, hit 33 taters.)  No one on the Rays had as many as 90 RBI, but eight players drove in over 50 runs.  No player hit .300, but eight of the nine regulars hit over .250, and the one who didn't (Kevin Kiermaier) led the team in stolen bases.  How consistent were the Rays throughout the season?  They had 11 players with a bWAR of at least 2.0, but none with a WAR above 5.0.  And who is the one player worth exactly 5.0 WAR?  Why, it's wild card game starting pitcher Charlie Morton.

The game is in Oakland, but Tampa had the second-best road record in the majors at 48-33.  This team knows how to win on the road.  And their starting pitcher knows how to pitch when the team's season is on the line.

Touch 'em all, Travis.  (Scott Audette/AP)

Oh, and one more thing.  Travis d'Arnaud is on the Rays and he just had that breakout campaign (16 HR, 67 RBI in 92 games with Tampa Bay) we were told he'd have one day as a member of the Mets.  But in addition to his skills with the bat, d'Arnaud also made Charlie Morton better, as evidenced by the opponents' .202/.265/.361 slash line against Morton with d'Arnaud behind the plate.

The Coliseum hasn't seen a playoff victory in six years.  That streak isn't ending this year.  Right, Travis?

Prediction:  Tampa Bay will advance to the ALDS.

The Magic Fortune Cookie Predicts the 2019 Mets Season

Last season, the Mets produced a Cy Young Award recipient in Jacob deGrom.  They also saw Zack Wheeler finally turning the corner and Noah Syndergaard emerging victorious in 13 of his 17 decisions.  And that's not to mention Michael Conforto setting career highs in home runs and RBI, Jeff McNeil continuing to rake at sea level after tearing up the Pacific Coast League and Brandon Nimmo reaching base in over 40% of his plate appearances, all while making a good case to play Guy Smiley in a live action Sesame Street movie.

What did all this individual success get them?  Just a measly 77-85 record and a fourth place finish for the sixth time in the Citi Field era.

But new general manager Brodie Van Wagenen insists that this year's Mets will be different than the previous two seasons.  This year's squad has All-Stars galore in new additions Robinson Canó, Edwin Díaz and Wilson Ramos.  Throw in Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie (when his boo boo heals) and the greatest first baseman in Mets history who still hasn't played a game at the major league level, Pete Alonso, and the Mets should easily tack on a few wins to last year's total, especially if none of their games against Derek Jeter's Marlins are postponed and not made up.

Of course, I'm not an expert on anything.  But I do know a good Mets prognosticator when I see one.  That's why, back by popular demand, I give you our resident Studious Metsimus soothsayer.  Please put your hands together for the one and only Magic Fortune Cookie.

Why would you say that?  I just paid you a compliment and if people want to applaud you for being good at what you do, you shouldn't tell them not to do so.

Because you're a fortune cookie.  Got it.  Well, I think you're great.  Except when you're insulting me.  Which I'm sure you won't be doing this time around, right?

I'll try to not ask silly questions then.  Let's begin.  How do you feel about Jacob deGrom finally being given the contract extension that every big leaguer and their mothers were getting this off-season?

Wait, what?  What kind of answer is that?  That has nothing to do with my question.

Well, you certainly did that.  Now can you answer my question?  And please leave the insults back at the restaurant.

Thank you for your honest response.  And why do you think it needed to be done?  Were you afraid he'd take a dip in the free agent waters after the 2020 campaign without the extension?

Moving on to his fellow moundsman, do you feel Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler will ever put up a season similar to the one deGrom completed last year?  And if so, which one has the potential to parlay such a season into a similar nine-figure deal with the team?

And how can you be so certain it's Thor and not Wheeler who gets the big payday from the team?

It most certainly isn't.  Moving on to the bullpen, is the one-two punch of Jeurys Familia and Edwin Díaz going to mean lights out for the opposition if the Mets have the lead through seven innings?

Hate to break it to you, but the 2010 team wasn't very good.  Not only that, but they didn't really have an eighth inning guy.  I mean, nearly half of Fernando Nieve's relief appearances that year came in the eighth inning and his ERA was an even 6.00.

Well, that was an unfortunate and embarrassing incident in club history.  Speaking of unfortunate and embarrassing, what do you think about the Wilpons' decision to finally have a Tom Seaver statue at Citi Field, announcing the news after his family revealed that he was retiring from the public life and would not be able to join his 1969 teammates for their 50th anniversary reunion at the ballpark?

I can understand your feelings for Seaver, but why do you feel happy for the men who caught Seaver in 1969?

Travis d'Arnaud probably won't be pleased to find out that you believe a couple of septuagenarians and an octogenarian are currently better equipped to handle the team's backup catcher's position.

Fair point.  Let's continue talking about up-the-middle players.  Why do you think Fred Wilpon agreed to take on the contract of Robinson Canó?  He's usually allergic to spending money.  Why did he change his ways for Canó?

I don't get it.

Oh, now I get it.  Papa Smirk was a Brooklyn Dodgers fan growing up.

Har-de-har-har.  Let's move on to the outfield.  Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo had strong seasons in 2018.  But teams need three outfielders.  Who will see the bulk of the playing time as the team's third outfielder?

Uh, you do know that Céspedes will start the season on the injured list and may not play until very late in the season, if he plays at all, right?

I suppose that could happen.  At least you didn't say Dominic Smith, so I can breathe a sigh of relief there.  And while I'm on the topic of first basemen, what numbers do you think Pete Alonso will produce at the position?

That's not very impressive.  Loney and González combined for just 15 HR and 60 RBI during their time with the Mets.  Pretty much any first baseman can produce those numbers over a full season.

That's promising news indeed!  Next-to-last question.  Do you think new hitting coach Chili Davis will help the team improve their putrid .234 team batting average, which was the Mets' lowest mark since the 1972 campaign?

Wait, you're not a sportswriter.  How does a fortune cookie have sources?

That was awful.

Your predictions might be good, but your jokes - for a fortune cookie - are a little stale.

Fine.  Last question.  What do you think the Mets' final record will be and where will they finish in the National League East?

And here I was, thinking the Mets had improved their team enough to make it into October.

Well, I oughta...

On that note, I'd like to thank the Magic Fortune Cookie for doing the best it could at making difficult predictions about an unpredictable team.  I'd also like to thank myself for exhibiting the self-control needed not to break open the fortune cookie every time it insulted me.  There's only so much a non-sleep inducing blogger can take.

Until next time, I hope you enjoy Opening Day, the 1969 reunion weekend and the rest of the season.  And remember, if the Mets purchase the contract of Kirk Nieuwenhuis from the Long Island Ducks, we're all in trouble.

LET'S GO METS!!

Hey, kids!  Prior to last year's hiring of the Magic Fortune Cookie, it was the Magic 8-Ball that was making predictions for Studious Metsimus, doing its job every season since 2010, the year Jason Bay first soiled us with his presence.  To see what the Magic 8-Ball said prior to each of the eight seasons it was on the Studious Metsimus payroll from 2010 to 2017, and what the Magic Fortune Cookie said in its debut in 2018, please click on the links below:

2018 Magic Fortune Cookie Predictions

2017 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2016 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2015 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2014 Magic 8-Ball Predictions
2013 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2012 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2011 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

2010 Magic 8-Ball Predictions

Joey's Soapbox: My 2018 Completely Unbiased World Series Pick

There will be no bias in my World Series pick.  Nor will there be hints in this photo.  I promise.

Howdy do, everyone!  This is Joey Beartran, and we've reached the end of another baseball season, one in which the Mets have been off for the last three-plus weeks and the Yankees got one step closer to their first decade since the 1910s without a World Series appearance.

The New York teams are two of 28 clubs that failed to qualify for the Fall Classic.  The squads that did make it to baseball's final week, however, are ones that have given Big Apple baseball fans many reasons to hate them over the last few decades.

The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers franchises are meeting in the World Series for the first time since 1916, when the then-Brooklyn Robins took home the National League pennant and Yankee fans had no ringzzz to brag about.  It's been so long since the two teams have met in October that even Scott Atchison would have a tough time recalling the events of that Fall Classic, one in which the Red Sox defeated the future Dodgers in five games.

That 1916 championship was the fourth World Series victory for Boston in 14 years and kept Brooklyn from winning its first title.  This year, the Red Sox are seeking their fourth trophy in 15 seasons and the Dodgers are going after their first championship in three decades.

Will history repeat itself a little over a century later?  Or will the Dodgers become the latest team to end a long championship drought, following the Astros from last year (first title in 57 seasons), the Cubs in 2016 (first time winning it all since the Dodgers were known as the Brooklyn Superbas) and the Royals in 2015 (we will not speak of that title)?

Sit back, grab a cold one and read on, since that's the only way you'll find out who will win this year's World Series.  I mean, you're not actually going to stay up to watch these five-hour games with relievers coming in every 20 pitches and umpires going to the replay headsets five times a night as if Angel Hernandez were working the game, are you?  (Editor's note: Angel Hernandez is not an umpire in this year's World Series, mainly because Rob Manfred actually wants people to watch the games.)

The World Series should be fair now that Angel Hernandez has tossed himself from it.  (Matt Campbell/AFP/Getty Images)

World Series


Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox steamrolled their way through the American League, winning a franchise record 108 games before disposing of the Yankees and defending champion Astros in the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Dodgers needed to play a 163rd game just to win the division and then went to a seventh game against the Brewers in the NLCS after defeating the Braves in four games in the Division Series.

Both teams have strong starting pitching, but at least Boston allows its pitchers to go deep into games.  Former Red Sox hero and current Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will usually take out his starting pitcher once he realizes his jersey doesn't say Kershaw on the back.

As far as each team's offense goes, we know the Dodgers' formula.  They either strike out (117 Ks in 11 postseason games) or hit home runs (53.5% of their runs in the postseason have come via the long ball).  Meanwhile, the Red Sox are all about making solid contact, as they've produced 28 extra-base hits and have struck out just 67 times in this year's playoffs.

The bullpen edge clearly moves the needle in the Dodgers' favor, as Kenley Jansen has yet to allow a run in the postseason while Boston's Craig Kimbrel has been watching the "How to Pitch Like Armando Benitez in the Playoffs" video before each appearance.

If the Dodgers can continue to hit timely home runs and be lights out in the bullpen, they'll be fine.  Similarly, if the Red Sox can continue to string together hit after hit and extend their starting pitchers into the late innings, they'll succeed in this series.

On paper, this appears to be a tight series; one that's too tough to call.  But predicting this year's World Series winner is really a no-brainer for me.  And here's why.

Peyton Manning played 13 seasons with the Indianapolis Colts before moving on to the Denver Broncos after the 2011 campaign.  Manning retired after winning the Super Bowl with his new team four years later.   Similarly, Ray Bourque, who played 21 seasons without a championship in Boston, finally hoisted the Stanley Cup in his last year in the NHL after leaving the Bruins to become a member of the Colorado Avalanche in 2000.  And of course, if you're a player who wants to retire as a champion in the NBA, all you have to do is join the Golden State Warriors and you have a free ride to Titlesville.

What does this have to do with this year's Fall Classic?  Well, the Dodgers have a player who is retiring from the game once the series is over.  He played 13 seasons with one team before moving to L.A. at the trade deadline in 2015.  Now he's trying to go out as a champion, just like Manning, Bourque and fill-in-the-blank Warriors players.  One problem, though.  His name is Chase Utley.  And I'd rather be Fred Wilpon's accountant than the one to say that Utley is going to be the latest athlete to go out on top with a new team.

Plus, the Dodgers just knocked Curtis Granderson's team out of the playoffs.  Then there's that thing about every team with exactly 108 regular season victories going on to win the World Series.  And don't forget that the Red Sox winning their fourth championship in 15 seasons would be the worst nightmare for Yankee fans who have only seen their beloved Bronx Bummers appear in one World Series over the same time period.

But since I'm completely unbiased, I'll just say the Dodgers won't win this World Series because they're not good enough to defeat the juggernaut Sawx.  And because Dave Roberts needs to always be loved in Boston.

Prediction: Red Sox in 5.

Chase Utley will have plenty of time to be horizontal once the Red Sox bowl over his team.  (Stephen Carr/Daily News)

Joey's Soapbox: My 2018 Completely Unbiased LCS Picks

Will the Dodgers' season be dead after their Weekend at Bernie's?  (Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus)

What's going on, everyone?  This is Joey Beartran, and we've reached the last hurdle for four teams in their quest to reach the World Series.  As always, the Washington Nationals are not one of the teams participating in the League Championship Series, but we knew that since late September when they were eliminated from postseason contention.  Or perhaps we just knew that because they're the Washington Nationals.

While most of the baseball world waits to see which team will overpay Bryce Harper to underachieve for them, fans of the Brewers, Dodgers, Red Sox and Astros will be focusing on their current squads in the hopes that their favorite players will be soon be dousing each other in champagne while wearing futuristic sting-proof goggles.

For Milwaukee, they're hoping to become the second team to win pennants in both leagues, as the Brew Crew advanced to their only World Series in 1982 as a member of the American League, losing the Fall Classic in seven games to Keith Hernandez and his Cardinals cohorts.  Who was the first team, you ask?  That would be Houston, who represented the Senior Circuit in the 2005 World Series and the Junior Circuit last year.  The Astros are also trying to become the first team since the Bronx Bummers nearly two decades ago to successfully defend their championship.

In Beantown, Red Sox fans who know baseball history are confident that their 108-win team will move on to the World Series, especially since no team with 108 regular season victories has ever failed to take home the crown.  Meanwhile, the Dodgers are trying to win back-to-back pennants for the first time in 40 years.

So who will be raising pennants in their home stadiums on Opening Day 2019?  And which teams will be watching footage of the 2017 and 2018 Yankees to learn the proper way to clean out their lockers at the end of a postseason series defeat?

You can either stay up to watch the four-hour games and then be late for school or work the following morning or you can read on to find out who will win the NLCS and ALCS.  Because, as you know, my predictions are more dependable than Giancarlo Stanton in a clutch situation and they're always completely unbiased.  (Especially now that the Yankees are no longer around.)


National League Championship Series


Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Dodgers are playing in their third consecutive NLCS.  The Brewers are playing in their third League Championship Series.  Period.  There's no question that Los Angeles is the more experienced of the two teams.  But will that matter against a team that's won 11 straight games dating back to the regular season?

Los Angeles is the classic all-or-nothing team, as they scored 13 of their 19 runs in the NLDS via the long ball and struck out 35 times in 119 at-bats.  Basically, if you keep them in the park, they'll beat themselves, as evidenced by their .153 batting average in the Division Series when they didn't hit a home run (17 non-homer hits in 111 at-bats).

If you think that .153 average seems pretty low, then the Rockies say, "Hold my Coors Light."

Milwaukee's pitchers limited Colorado hitters to a .146 batting average in their three-game sweep over the Rockies.  Colorado, who hit 210 home runs during the regular season, failed to go deep in any of the three Division Series games against the Brewers.  In fact, the closest they came to hitting a dinger was probably when one of the Rockies' players hit a foul ball into the stands that fell inches away from their mascot.

Dinger has until April to rest up, thanks to Milwaukee's pitching staff.  (Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

The Brewers hit well (28 hits in the three games vs. Colorado), they're patient (16 walks in the NLDS) and their pitching has been dominant since late August, allowing an average of 2.56 runs per game over their last 32 games.  The Dodgers just hit home runs.  And the red hot Brewers' staff should prevent them from doing that in this series.

Prediction: Brewers in 6.


American League Championship Series

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox

Houston set a franchise record by winning 103 games in 2018.  They also allowed just 534 runs during the regular season, which were the fewest runs allowed by the team in a non-strike shortened season.  Yet despite being arguably better than the team that won it all last year, the Astros will not have home-field advantage over the Red Sox because Boston won five more games during the regular season.  And you know what?

The Astros have the Red Sox right where they want them.

The defending World Series champions had an eye-popping 57-24 record on the road in 2018.  So packing their bags to play in another team's park is probably bad news for the home team, not the Astros.

Also, Boston's bullpen has had difficulty getting the ball to closer Craig Kimbrel, as no reliever who made at least 40 appearances for the Red Sox had an ERA under 3.18.  This is a problem on a team that did not have any starter pitch 200 innings, something the Astros wouldn't know a thing about, as three of their starters (Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Gerrit Cole) topped the 200-inning mark.

When the Astros aren't outpitching you, they're bludgeoning you with their bats, as they outscored their opponents by an incredible 263 runs.  No other team was within 34 runs of Houston's run differential.

Boston's 108 wins were impressive, but they fattened their victory total by dominating the bottom feeders of their division (31-7 record against Toronto and Baltimore) and their interleague opponents (16-4 vs. their N.L. victims).  For all you kids out there, that's a 47-11 record against the Blue Jays, Orioles and the Mets' good buddies in the N.L. East, which leaves them with a 61-43 record versus all other teams.  That's a .587 winning percentage against those other squads.  Not bad, but not dominant, either.

Houston was equally good against everyone, especially when they went up against a left-handed starting pitcher.  The Astros were 37-23 versus southpaw starters, winning more games against lefties than any other team in the American League.  On a related note, Boston's top two starters throw baseballs with their left hand.

So do you remember that factoid I mentioned earlier about all 108-win teams going on to win the World Series that year?  Do you also recall that saying, "All good things must come to an end"?  I think the latter applies here.  And I'm not just saying that because I want the 1986 Mets to remain the last 108-win team to win a title.

Prediction: Astros in 7.

Only one 108-win had the teamwork to make the dream work.  Sorry, Alex Cora.  (Jim Davis/Boston Globe)

Joey's Soapbox: My 2018 Completely Unbiased Division Series Picks

Will my crew pick the Brew Crew to advance?  Like I'd give that away in the opening photo.  (Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus)

What's going on?  This is Joey Beartran, and I'm ready to roll out my picks for the American League and National League Division Series.  And of course, as always, they will be completely unbiased.  That means I won't pick a team because of how they did or didn't do when they played the Mets.  I also won't pick against a team because they just happen to have someone on their roster that may have broken a former Met's leg,  Nope, that would be biased.

I will, however, pick the teams I feel have the best chance to advance to the League Championship Series.  And those picks will be based on pertinent statistics, postseason experience and whether or not they have Curtis Granderson on the team.

So who will move one step closer to the World Series just to have a light-hitting catcher such as Mike Scioscia or Yadier Molina deliver a key blow in the ninth inning?  And who can't seem to get over the events of 1988 or 2006?  (Spoiler alert:  That would be me.)

It's time for me to put my Post-Traumatic Mets Disorder aside and share my picks for the 2018 A.L. and N.L. Division Series.


National League Division Series


Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Rockies and Brewers have no World Series titles and just two Fall Classic appearances in their combined 75 years of existence.  But once this best-of-five series is over, one of the two teams will be four wins away from a pennant.

Colorado wasn't expected to compete with the powerhouse Dodgers for the N.L. West title.  Nor were they supposed to beat the battle-tested Cubs in the N.L. Wild Card game.  But the Rockies did both, and now they might pay for it against the team with the best record in the National League.

Because ace pitcher Kyle Freeland was used in the Wild Card game, he will only be available to pitch once in the Division Series.  And by the time he takes the mound in Game Three, the Rockies could very well be facing elimination.

Colorado is going with Antonio Senzatela as its Game One starter.  Senzatela started just 13 games this season and was wild in his only appearance against the Brewers, walking three and hitting a batter in five innings of work.  Game Two starter Tyler Anderson made 32 starts for the Rockies and won just seven of those starts.  Was he just unlucky like Jacob deGrom in that his offense hit the snooze button whenever he was on the mound?  Not exactly.  Anderson pitched to a 4.55 ERA and allowed a team-high 30 home runs in 176 IP.  That doesn't bode well against a Brewers team that finished second in the National League with 218 homers.

While Milwaukee is feasting on the likes of Homer Happy Anderson and Antonio Send Nutella (autocorrect works in mysterious ways), the Rockies will be facing Junior Guerra and Jhoulys Chacin.  Neither pitcher is a household name or a Cy Young candidate.  But against the Rockies, they won't need to be.

Game One starter Guerra has unreal home/road splits, boasting a 2.48 ERA on the Miller Park mound and a 6.97 ERA away from it.  Where is Game One being played?  In the city made famous by Lenny and Squiggy, of course.  Meanwhile, Game Two starter Chacin became the first N.L. pitcher to make 35 starts in a season since Chris Carpenter in 2010.  Chacin finished the year with a solid 3.50 ERA and a career-best 1.16 WHIP.  And how has he fared in his career against the Rockies?  He's held them to a .203 batting average and .642 OPS.  No other National League team has a lower batting average against Chacin in his career and only the Giants, Diamondbacks and Phillies have a lower OPS.

By the time Freeland takes the mound in Game Three at Coors Field, the Rockies might be staring at elimination.  They'll also be staring at the fearsome threesome of Jesus Aguilar, Travis Shaw and MVP frontrunner Christian Yelich, who combined to produce 103 HR and 304 RBI for the Brewers.  And they did that without playing half of their games at 5,280 feet above sea level.

In the battle of beer cities, Miller > Coors.  And it's not even close.

Prediction: Brewers in 3.

Did I mention that Curtis Granderson is a Brewer?  Yet another reason to pick them to win.  (Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers needed a 163rd game to win their sixth consecutive N.L. West title, or eight fewer than the Braves claimed during their unprecedented run of 14 straight division crowns.  It's no surprise that Los Angeles is in the Division Series.  What is surprising is that Atlanta is joining them, as the Braves entered the 2018 campaign just trying to avoid their fifth consecutive losing season and instead won 90 games after averaging 90 losses per season since 2014.

Los Angeles led the National League in ERA, which is not unusual for a team known for its pitching.  But check this out.  The Dodgers used a whopping 31 pitchers during the season, yet none of them pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, not that Jacob deGrom was going to let any of them compete with him for that honor.  Ninety-year-old Rich Hill was the only Dodger to reach double digits in wins and Alex Wood led the staff with just 27 starts.  So I guess you could say they're well-rested.  It was truly an odd season for the Dodgers' pitching staff.

Their hitters, on the other hand, were the epitome of all-or-nothing.  The Dodgers set franchise records in both home runs (235) and strikeouts (1,436).  But most of their homers came with no one on base.  In fact, their 157 solo shots were more than the total number of homers hit by five major league teams.  So basically, a good pitching staff that isn't susceptible to the long ball and can strike out a batter or ten should be able to handle the Dodgers' bats.

For the record, the Braves allowed the third-fewest homers in the majors (153) and finished in MLB's top ten in strikeouts recorded (1,423).  Just like Chase Utley, this one's a no-brainer.

Prediction: Braves in 4.

Rejoice!  Chase Utley will officially be retired after this series.  (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)

American League Division Series


Cleveland Indians vs. Houston Astros

In this battle between the last two American League pennant winners, let's not look at the defending World Series champion Astros and instead focus on the three-time A.L. Central champion Cleveland Indians.

The Indians became the first team in history to have four pitchers strike out 200 or more hitters, as Carlos Carrasco (231 Ks), Corey Kluber (222 Ks), Trevor Bauer (221 Ks) and Mike Clevinger (207 Ks) spent most of the year sending opposing hitters back to their respective dugouts.

On the offensive side, Cleveland produced a trio of 30-HR hitters (Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion) and was also the American League's biggest threat on the bases, producing a league-leading 135 stolen bases.

But there's just one problem with the Indians.  And it's a pretty big one.  Are you ready for this?

Oliver Perez is their best relief pitcher.

The former Met boo magnet made 51 appearances for the Indians in 2018 and produced a 1.39 ERA and 0.74 WHIP.  He also struck out 43 batters while walking just seven.  How did his colleagues in the bullpen fare?  You may want to sit down for this one.

Closer Cody Allen had a 4.70 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 70 appearances.  Six other relievers not named Oliver Perez made at least 30 appearances for the Indians.  All six had an ERA of at least 4.24 and a WHIP north of 1.26.

Basically, if your best option out of the bullpen is O.P., then you're pretty much D.O.A. against a team like the Astros.  It also doesn't help that the Indians' 91-71 record was a product of playing in baseball's worst division, as they went 49-27 against their fellow A.L. Central teams and 42-44 versus non-division opponents.  Needless to say, Houston doesn't call the A.L. Central home.

This series shouldn't be close.

Prediction: Astros in 3.

Playing the defending World Champions would make anyone go prematurely gray.  (William Purnell/Getty Images)

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

I'll make this simple for you without being biased.  The Red Sox became the fourth team in history to win exactly 108 games.  They matched the victory total of the 1970 Baltimore Orioles, 1975 Cincinnati Reds and 1986 New York Mets.  What do those three teams have in common besides the number of regular season happy recaps?  Champagne in late October, that's what.

Had the Red Sox won 109 games instead of 108, there would be no guarantee of a parade because the 1969 Orioles had that many victories and didn't win it all.  (I wonder who did...)  Similarly, if the Red Sox had lost their final regular season game to finish the year with 107 wins, they would have matched the 1931 Philadelphia Athletics' victory total.  The A's lost the Fall Classic that year to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Meanwhile, the Yankees became the ninth team since 1980 to finish the season with exactly 100 victories.  How many championships were won by the previous eight 100-win teams?  It's the same as the number of Washington Nationals postseason series victories.  In fact, five of those eight 100-win teams didn't even make it to the League Championship Series.

So forget about the stats.  Forget about head-to-head records.  (The Red Sox won the season series against the Yankees anyway, in case you were wondering.)  History cannot be denied.  Teams with 108 wins take home the crown.  Teams with 100 wins make plans to play golf during the World Series.

Prediction: Red Sox in 5.

Fenway Park, where Evil Empire dreams go to die.  (EL/SM)