Home Field Disadvantage

You don't have to be a numbers-obsessed Mets fan like me to realize that the team has been playing pretty badly at Citi Field over the past few years.  But sometimes the numbers help to advance and enhance the narrative.

For example, since the beginning of the 2011 campaign, the Mets have gone 105-145 in games played at Citi Field.  Meanwhile, over the same time period, the team has posted a winning mark (128-124) on the road.  Should the Mets finish the 2014 season with a losing record at home, it would be the team's fourth consecutive sub-.500 record in their home ballpark.  Not since the Mets posted six straight losing seasons at home from 1977 to 1982 has the team been so futile before its fans.

But as bad as it's been at Citi Field for the Mets over the past three seasons, it looks like it's getting worse before it's getting better.  Please allow me to explain.

Through their first seven home games in 2014, the Mets have been outhit, 70-34.  They have failed to collect more than seven hits in any game at Citi Field, but their opponents haven't had that problem, as they have mustered seven or more hits in EVERY GAME played at Citi Field this season.

The Mets have batted .160 at home this year, while reaching base at a .246 clip.  Never has any team in Mets history posted a lower batting average through its first seven home games.  To put those numbers into perspective, the league batting average is .248.  That's two points higher than the Mets' on-base percentage at home this year.  (And for the record, the average National League team is posting a .313 on-base percentage.)

But there is one thing the Mets do well at home.  They strike out.  A lot.

In seven games at home, the Mets have fanned 69 times in 212 at-bats.  That's practically one strikeout every three at-bats.  And before you say, "Well, their pitchers have a lot to do with that, smarty pants, because they're forced to bat in the National League", allow me to retort.  Mets hurlers have struck out just six times at Citi Field this season.  (First-place Atlanta has played one fewer home game than the Mets, but their pitchers have struck out eight times.)  So it's mainly the everyday players who have been heading back to the dugout soon after taking or swinging through strike three.

Shake Shack might have a tasty burger, but what Mets fans really want to taste at Citi Field are Big Kahuna victories.

Just four short years ago, the Mets believed in home field advantage so much, they used their Citi Field success as part of a marketing campaign.  But that was then and this is now.  For as bad as the Mets have been at home since 2011, they've become even more lethargic in 2014.

The trade of Ike Davis actually removed one of the few players who was hitting well at Citi Field and wasn't striking out.  Davis was 4-for-8 with just one strikeout at home.  The rest of the team has gone 30-for-204 (for a .147 batting average) with 68 strikeouts.  If those numbers look familiar to you (which they shouldn't), that's because they're almost identical to the ones put up by Oliver Perez at the plate in his five seasons with the Mets.  Perez hit .147 with 53 strikeouts in 156 at-bats as a Met.

So tell me, my astute Mets fans.  If it's considered an insult for a Mets pitcher to be compared in any way to Oliver Perez, then what is it considered when a Mets hitter is compared to him?

The Mets used to believe in home field advantage.  But Citi Field has become a home field disadvantage for the team since 2011.  The Mets simply don't hit at home.  And that translates into not winning at home.  Clearly, the only teams that are taking advantage of Citi Field are the ones who call the third base dugout home.
 

A Dickey vs. A Dick

In Thursday's 8-6 victory in St. Louis, the Mets rallied for six runs in the ninth inning against the wild card contending Cardinals and Bobby Parnell registered his sixth save of the season, his first in which he retired every batter to face him.

After a rainout last night, the Mets play a day-night doubleheader today at Citi Field, a place that has not been too kind to them in 2011.  After registering an 88-74 record at home over the last two seasons, the Mets are 31-44 in their home whites and could finish with their poorest record at home since 1993, when they went 28-53.  (The Mets went 34-46 at Shea Stadium in 2003.)  They have already clinched their first losing season at home since 2004, when they finished 38-43 at Shea Stadium under the "tutelage" of Art Howe.

If the Mets don't want to finish with their worst home record since the days of their feared Frank Tanana, Eric Hillman and Dave Telgheder rotation (hey, don't go hatin' on Telgheder - he was 6-2 in '93), they'll need to come up big against the Phillies and Reds over their final six games.

It all begins today, when R.A. Dickey takes the mound to oppose Cole Hamels, or as we like to call this matchup at Studious Metsimus, it's a Dickey vs. a dick.

R.A. Dickey might be a man of many words, but he is not nearly the multi-tasker Cole Hamels is.  After all, Hamels has proven that he can be an ass and a dick at the same time.

R.A. Dickey has been red hot lately, but unfortunately, he doesn't have the wins to show for it.  Over his last 23 starts, Dickey has pitched to a cool 2.75 ERA.  However, although the Mets have won 12 of those 23 starts, Dickey has only gotten credit for seven of them.  Dickey also hasn't given up more than three earned runs since July 20, a span of 11 starts.

Hamels, on the other hand, has been awful recently, losing his last two starts to the lowly Astros and the contending Cardinals.  After posting a 2.58 ERA over the first five months of the season, Hamels has registered a 4.18 ERA in the month of September.  And let's not even get started with his lifetime record against the Mets.  Ah, forget that.  Let's talk about it right now!

In 16 career starts against the Mets, Hamels is 3-10 with a 4.69 ERA.  Most people learn from their mistakes.  Cole Hamels is not most people.  In 2011, Hamels is 1-2 against New York and is the proud owner of a 9.64 ERA against the Mets.

One person who remembers Hamels very well is R.A. Dickey.  On August 13, 2010, Dickey pitched the best game of his life, completing a one-hit shutout against the Phillies at Citi Field.  The lone hit was a soft sixth inning single by (you guessed it) Cole Hamels.

The recipe is there for a victory.  It's the red hot R.A. Dickey on the mound for the Mets.  It's the ass who's also a dick taking the ball for the Phillies.  Philadelphia has already clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs (including the World Series, if they make it that far).  The Mets are just trying to re-establish their home-field advantage.  I'll take my chances with a Dickey over a dick anytime.

New Homestand, New Hope

After defeating the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday night in an emotional extra-inning affair, the Mets return to Citi Field to begin a week-long homestand against the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Although the Mets are still in last place with a 12-16 record, they're not as far out of contention as their record and division standing would suggest. In fact, parity in baseball has made fans in every major league city hold on to hopes of meaningful baseball games in the summer.

Because baseball doesn't have a salary cap, it's difficult to achieve parity. Usually the teams with the highest payrolls have the best chance to extend their seasons past 162 games. More often than not, these teams usually finish well above .500 and have a relatively simple time making their way to the postseason. However, in the early going this season, an overwhelming number of teams are right around the .500 mark.

As of today, only five teams in baseball are more than three games above .500. Those teams are the Indians (19-8), Marlins (18-9), Phillies (18-9), Rockies (17-9) and Yankees (17-9). With identical 16-13 records, the Angels, Rangers and Cardinals can all lay claim to having the sixth-best record in baseball.

Want more proof that there's parity in baseball? Of the 30 teams in the major leagues, a whopping 20 franchises (or two-thirds of all clubs) are between three games over .500 and four games under .500. At 12-16, the Mets are one of those 20 teams that are separated by a mere 3½ games.

Let's now focus strictly on the National League. As of now, only four NL teams have winning records (Marlins, Phillies, Rockies, Cardinals). The Mets have played three of these four teams (they don't play St. Louis until after the All-Star Break) and are a combined 4-9 against them. Against all other opponents, the Mets have a winning record (8-7). After 28 games, the Mets have played nearly half of their schedule against teams that have winning percentages above .650. What about those three .650+ teams? How have the Marlins, Phillies and Rockies racked up so many wins early on? A quick look at their early season schedules reveal quite a tale.

The Marlins have played 27 games, but only six of them have come against teams with winning records. The Phillies have also played 27 games, with only two of those games being played against above-.500 teams (they split those two games against the Marlins). Meanwhile, the Rockies have played three of their 26 games against a winning team, losing two of three to the Marlins.

That means the Mets have played more games against the "elite" teams in the National League (13) than the Marlins, Phillies and Rockies have played combined (11). Of course the Marlins, Phillies and Rockies have good records. They've feasted on the dregs of the National League!

In addition, neither one of those three teams has played more games on the road than at home. The Mets, on the other hand, have played 15 of their 28 games away from Citi Field.

Now the Mets come back home, where they won their last four ballgames before going 3-3 on their recent Washington/Philadelphia trip. They will be facing the Giants and the Dodgers, teams with a combined 28-30 record. Meanwhile, the Marlins will playing six of their next nine games against teams with winning records (Cardinals, Phillies), while the Phillies will be facing their first real test of the season, with series against the Marlins and three of the other five division leaders (Cardinals, Rangers, Rockies) over the next three weeks.

The Mets are in last place now, but they have the opportunity to make a statement this week at home against the Giants and Dodgers. Parity is the name of the game in the major leagues this season, and the teams that have risen above it have done so by taking advantage of their weak early season schedules. But all that is about to change in the next few weeks. Will the Mets be able to rise if the other teams fall? If they do, this week's homestand could give new hope for the team and its fans.

Pictures Of The More Mets-Centric Citi Field

Greeting and salutations, Mets fans! Today, the Studious Metsimus staff attended the Pre-Season Workout at Citi Field. We were surprised by all the changes at the ballpark and we have the pictures to prove it. Enjoy!

The first thing we noticed when we approached the Jackie Robinson Rotunda was the new placement of the Shea Stadium Home Run Apple. Doesn't it look so much better under a blue sky with the sun shining on it?


The Mets changed the names of the VIP entrances to reflect the three numbers retired by the franchise. The first base VIP entrance was renamed "Hodges". The third base VIP entrance was renamed "Seaver" and the left field VIP entrance was renamed "Stengel". Below is the former left field entrance with Casey Stengel proudly displayed over his name on the entrance.

The new bricks along the fanwalk feature the greatest moments in Mets history. Here are some of those bricks, including the infamous Game 7 of the 1986 World Series brick, which incorrectly credited Sid Fernandez with the Game 7 win before it was changed to the brick shown below.

We took pictures of all the new banners outside the ballpark as well, but we don't want to spoil everything for you. Besides, wouldn't you rather see what the new Mets Hall of Fame and Museum looks like?

The Studious Metsimus staff was quite impressed with the exhibit. Joey even appeared in some of the photos although I think he was trying to end the museum tour and sample the new food additions (which you will see later). Here is a small sample of the Mets Hall of Fame and Museum.








Now it's time to move on to the new additions on our near the field of play. From the Shea Bridge to the new script "Mets" on the CitiVision, there was no shortage of changes to make Citi Field look more Mets-friendly than it was in 2009. Of course, Joey still found a Brooklyn Dodgers reference, but I don't think fans would complain about this one.




There were some cosmetic changes to the field as well. The Mets lowered the centerfield fence in front of the home run apple from 16 feet to 8 feet. They also reconfigured the bullpens so that the visitor's bullpen was not hidden behind the Mets bullpen. Now the two bullpens are side-by-side and both teams can view the events taking place on the field without any obstructions blocking their views.

Finally, as promised, here are the food selections sampled by Joey. Let's give the keyboard over to our culinary expert, Joey, as he takes you through the news food selections and prices.

Thank you, esteemed Studious Metsimus colleague. This is Joey Child, who may or may not be related to your Studious Metsimus correspondent, Joey Beartran. Family trees for bears are far more complicated than human ones. I decided to sample the new additions at Box Frites and I must say, I was quite impressed. They now offer poutine. (although they refer to it as "disco fries". There is no truth to the rumor that I was humming "Macho Man" by the Village People as I was sampling these delicious frites.) Below is a picture of the poorly-named, but rich tasting "disco fries", followed by the new garlic-parmesan fries, followed by my lunch break.

Now it's time to reveal the new prices for food at Citi Field. The petty cash tin at Studious Metsimus will be emptier sooner than later, but for these great selections, it's worth it. If you remember some of the food prices from last year, you'll notice that most items went up in price anywher from a quarter to a dollar. Here are our exclusive photos of the new prices at various food stands. You may also notice new choices (like Goya beef empanadas at the Hot Dog stand and cheese fries at Shake Shack) which we will sample at a later date.



For those who want to know why there are no pictures of McFadden's Restaurant and Saloon, that's because when we went down there, it didn't appear to be finished. The Studious Metsimus gossip reporters (betcha didn't know we had gossip reporters, didya?) overheard two Citi Field employees saying that it wouldn't be finished until the second homestand, which begins April 19 against the Chicago Cubs. Whether or not this is true, we'll find out when we go to Opening Day.

So Citi Field is finally looking more like a Mets ballpark. With the addition of the Mets Hall of Fame and Museum, the new entrances and bricks outside the stadium and the new and improved food choices, Mets fans will finally feel like they have a home again. Whether or not those fans will help give the Mets a home field advantage is yet to be determined. One thing for sure is that the Mets finally tried and succeeded in making Citi Field less of an Ebbets Field-lite and more of a worthy successor to Shea Stadium. Now it's up to the players to keep the fans in their seats with good play on the field. Regardless of how the team performs on the field, Mets fans will surely enjoy their experience at Citi Field in 2010.

As the slogan for 2010 goes, "We Believe In Comebacks". For the staff of Studious Metsimus, we approve of the improvements at Citi Field and we believe in coming back to Citi Field this year. Hope to see you there!

We Believe In Home Field Advantage, But What About The Road?

I noticed something interesting on the cover of my 2010 Mets tickets (see left). The slogan "We Believe In Home Field Advantage" is boldly emblazoned on it. Last year, the Mets' record at Citi Field was 41-40, not exactly what you'd call a home field advantage.

Of course, when you consider the Mets' 29-52 road record in 2009, perhaps they did have an advantage at home. The one thing I know for sure is that the Mets were at a DISADVANTAGE when they left their friendly Flushing confines.

Last year, there were eight teams who finished with winning records away from their home ballparks. Of those eight teams, six made the postseason, including both pennant winners. This was similar to what occurred the previous year (2008), when only six teams finished above .500 on the road, four of which made the playoffs.

Now let's look at home records. In 2009, 20 of the 30 teams in baseball finished with winning records. 12 of those 20 teams (60%) FAILED to make the playoffs. The year before, 21 teams finished above .500 at home. 13 of those 21 teams went home before Game 1 of the Division Series.

It's not an easy task to win on the road in any sport, but finishing with a winning road record greatly improves a team's chances to play past the 162nd game. A team is expected to win at home. That's why more than half the teams that finished with winning records at home over the past two seasons didn't play in October.

However, the majority of the teams that finished above .500 on the road continued playing when other teams were left wondering what went wrong.


The Mets finished with a winning record at Citi Field last year. However, when a team finishes 23 games below .500 on the road, that doesn't give them much of a chance to play meaningful games in July, let alone September.

For all the talk about the Mets not being able to hit home runs at Citi Field, they actually hit more long balls at home (49) than on the road (46). They scored 15 more runs at Citi Field than on the road (343 home, 328 away), but gave up a whopping 57 more runs on the road than at home (407 runs given up on the road, 350 runs given up at Citi Field).

The two most outrageous home-road splits belonged to Mike Pelfrey and John Maine. Below are the stats for Pelfrey and Maine at Citi Field and on the road:

• Mike Pelfrey (Citi Field): 6-5, 3.72 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
• Mike Pelfrey (Road): 4-7, 6.72 ERA, 1.73 WHIP

• John Maine (Citi Field): 6-1, 1.98 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
• John Maine (Road): 1-5, 6.92 ERA, 1.64 WHIP

It's very easy for guys like Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel to say that the team can compete if they remain healthy. What they really need to say is that the Mets can compete if they can perform better on the road. Using injuries as a crutch (no pun intended) can only go so far. What will they say if the team is still losing when Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are back in the lineup?

The Mets don't necessarily have to finish with a winning record on the road. After all, in each of the last two seasons, there have been two teams with losing road records that made the postseason cut. But no team that loses almost twice as many road games than they win can expect to be anything but a second division team.

Forget about blaming injuries, forget about blaming the ballpark. The answer to whether the Mets will succeed or fail in 2010 rests on the road. If they can take care of business there, home cookin' will taste so much sweeter this year.