This Is How Close The Mets Are To Being Crazy Good

Matt Harvey smiles as he realizes just how good this team could be very soon.  (Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

On Friday, Jonathon Niese allowed three runs in six innings of work in a game that was eventually lost by the Mets, 7-2.  The game marked just the sixth time all season that the Mets lost when their starting pitcher was credited with a quality start (six or more innings pitched, no more than three earned runs allowed).  By contrast, the Mets have won 27 times in games where the starter recorded a quality start.  That gives the team a 27-6 record in quality starts and a lowly 3-20 mark when the starting pitcher failed to give a quality performance.

To put this in layman's terms, the Mets have won over 80% of the time when their starting staff has kept them in games.  But once the starter falls apart, it becomes nearly impossible for the offense to bail him out.

I wanted to know how important quality starts have been for the Mets in determining where the team has finished in the season's final standings, so I did some research on the topic.  My findings were not only stunning, but proved just how close the Mets currently are to being one of the top teams in the league, as long as the offense doesn't let them down.

First, I wanted to see how many Mets teams have recorded 100 or more quality starts in a single season.  There were a dozen such teams, as shown by the chart below.

Of the 12 teams to reach triple digits in quality starts, nine finished with winning records and four reached the postseason, including both World Championship teams and all three 100-win squads.  The three teams that posted 100 or more quality starts, but still finished below .500 did so in 1968, 1974 and 2012.

Clearly, all three of those sub-.500 teams had excellent pitching, as evidenced by the overwhelming numbers of quality starts.  But one other thing they had in common was their anemic offense.

The 1968 campaign was known as "The Year of the Pitcher", as hurlers such as Bob Gibson (1.12 ERA; the lowest mark in the modern era of baseball) and Denny McLain (31 wins; the last pitcher to win 30 or more games) posted career years on the mound.  But as much as hitters struggled against pitchers in 1968, no team fared worse at the plate than the New York Mets.

In the final season before the leagues split up into divisions, the Mets finished dead last in the National League in team batting average (.228), on-base percentage (.281) and slugging percentage (.315), scoring just 473 runs - which remains the fewest tallies in club history in a non-strike shortened campaign.

Similarly, the 1974 club made most of the pitchers they faced look like Sandy Koufax on the mound.  The Mets finished the year in last place or next-to-last place in nearly every offensive category, including hits, doubles, triples, stolen bases, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and of course, runs scored.  The pitcher who suffered the most for the Mets in 1974 was Jon Matlack, who incredibly tossed seven shutouts and posted a 2.41 ERA, but only managed a 13-15 won-loss record.  More than half of his wins in 1974 came in those seven shutouts, meaning that once he allowed a single run, his team's chances of winning went down the drain.

The third club with 100 quality starts that failed to post a winning record did it fairly recently.  In 2012, the Mets had the National League Cy Young Award winner in R.A. Dickey, who led the league in complete games, shutouts, innings pitched and strikeouts, as well as recording quality starts in 27 of his 33 starts.  They also had a staff that included Johan Santana, who pitched the team's first and only no-hitter, and Jonathon Niese, who quietly had the best season of his career, going 13-9 with a 3.40 ERA and 22 quality starts.  In addition, the 2012 campaign saw the debut of Matt Harvey, who dazzled in his ten late-season starts (2.73 ERA, 70 Ks in 59.1 IP).  Of course, none of that could help the team achieve a winning record.  While it's true that the bullpen was part of the reason for the team's failure to have many happy recaps, the offense didn't help much either.  The team batted .249 and finished outside of the league's top ten in home runs, stolen bases, runs scored, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Now let's take a look at the teams that posted the highest winning percentages in games where a starting pitcher recorded a quality start.

Once again, the teams that took advantage of quality starts were among the best in franchise history.  Eight of the top ten teams won 88 or more games and six of those eight teams made the playoffs.  The two teams that didn't win at least 88 games were the 1994 Mets, who never finished their 162-game schedule due to the players strike and this year's club, who are on pace for just under 87 victories.

The 1994 squad had a wonderful one-two tandem atop the rotation in Bret Saberhagen and Bobby Jones.  The two right-handers combined to go 26-11 with a 2.93 ERA, accounting for nearly half of the team's 55 victories.  However, the team's offense sputtered for most of the abbreviated season finishing at or near the bottom of the league in hits, doubles, triples, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.  New York also had no speed to speak of, as bench player John Cangelosi led the team with five stolen bases.  Also, making contact wasn't exactly the team's forte, as the Mets led the league in strikeouts and were next-to-last in walks.

And that brings us to this year's squad, who currently is one of just two teams in franchise history to win 80% of their quality starts - the other is the 1986 World Championship team.  With a rotation led by Bartolo Colon, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, the 2015 Mets have been wonderful at limiting runs scored by the opposition.  Unfortunately, the hitters have prevented the team from winning games when the starting pitchers haven't been on top of their games.

The Mets have averaged 3.79 runs per game in the 56 contests they've played this year.  The last Mets team to score fewer runs per game was the 1992 squad, who crossed the plate 3.70 times per affair and famously became known as "The Worst Team Money Could Buy".  This year's team is also averaging 7.73 strikeouts per game.  The only teams with a higher strikeout rate were the last two - the 2013 and 2014 clubs.  It also doesn't help that the Mets are batting .241 and reaching base at a .305 clip.

It wouldn't take much for the 2015 Mets to win on a more consistent basis.  In fact, they don't even need a bunch of superstars to push them over the top.  They just need to be average at the plate.

The average National League hitter is putting up a .253/.314/.392 slash line.  Those numbers aren't spectacular, but they're much better than the current .241/.305/.367 slash line posted by the Mets.  In addition, the average National League team has 91 doubles, nine triples, 49 homers, 31 stolen bases and has scored 225 runs.  All of those numbers are greater than the 82 doubles, five triples, 47 homers, 19 stolen bases and 212 runs scored by the Mets.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to postulate that quality starts usually help a team win ballgames.  But even having a staff that produces quality starts by the bunches doesn't guarantee a playoff berth or even a winning record.  The 1968, 1974 and 2012 Mets know all about that.  And despite the season-ending players strike that put the kibosh on the 1994 campaign, Jeff Kent, his epic mustache, and rest of the '94 club could attest that winning the majority of the team's quality starts doesn't mean very much if the team can't win its non-quality starts.

The best teams in Mets history had great starting pitchers and could also hit the ball around the park.  That's why the 1969, 1986 and 1988 squads are the only ones to appear on both of the above charts.  Neither of those three teams were offensive juggernauts, but they each had a balanced attack at the plate.  The '69 squad finished in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories, yet still won 100 games.  That's all the 2015 Mets need.  If they're just mediocre at the plate, their starting pitching will carry them to places they've rarely been.

All the quality starts in the world won't produce a memorable season if the team's hitters are less than average at the plate.  A little mediocrity may be just what the doctor ordered to prescribe a successful season at Citi Field in 2015.

Jonathon Niese Finally Gets It Together

Jonathon Niese was drafted by the Mets in the seventh round of the 2005 amateur draft.  Niese was good, but not great in the minors, winning 11 games in each minor league season from 2006 to 2008 and averaging nearly a strikeout per inning.  But his ERA was just under 4.00 and he averaged over three walks per nine innings.  However, he went 5-1 in seven starts with AAA-New Orleans in 2008 and became one of the September call-ups in Shea Stadium's final season.

Niese pitched poorly in his first major league start, allowing five runs on seven hits and four walks to the Brewers in only three innings of work.  But he was brilliant in his next start, pitching eight shutout innings against the Braves to earn his first major league victory.  In his third and final start for the Mets in 2008, Niese could not carry over the momentum gained from his stellar effort against Atlanta. He threw 78 pitches in only three innings versus the Cubs, allowing six runs on seven hits and two walks.  It was this kind of inconsistency from start to start that became the rule rather than the exception for Niese over his first four seasons in the majors.

In 2009, Niese made five starts for the Mets.  He pitched beautifully in his first start (6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB) but was awful in his second (4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB).  He followed the same pattern in his next two starts, pitching well in his third start, but allowing base runner after base runner in his fourth game.  Niese's fifth start was marred by a season-ending injury on August 5, when he collapsed on the mound while throwing a practice pitch. 

The 2010 season was the first in which Niese made the Mets' Opening Day roster.  Niese began the season poorly, winning one of his first eight starts before another injury felled him on May 16.  But once he came off the disabled list, Niese was a new man.  He won his first five decisions upon his return to the Mets on June 5 and enjoyed the best extended stretch of his career to date.  From June 5 to August 21, Niese was the proud owner of a 2.70 ERA, striking out 77 batters and walking only 25 in 96.2 IP.  Only twice in those 15 starts did he allow more than three runs.  He also pitched the best game of his career on June 10, allowing only a third inning double to the Padres' Chris Denorfia.  That hit was the only base runner of the night for San Diego, and the only blemish on an otherwise perfect pitching performance by Jonathon Niese, who sailed to a complete-game one-hit shutout.

But even after a two-and-a-half month stretch of excellence, Niese's inconsistencies were not completely behind him.  In his final seven starts of the season, Niese was battered by opposing hitters.  Niese allowed the opposition to hit .345 against him and walked 19 batters in 35.2 IP.  His ERA over that stretch was an abysmal 7.57, and as a result, he was only able to win one of his final seven starts, finishing the year with a disappointing 9-10 record.

The same formula was followed by Niese in 2011, as he started off poorly (2-4, 5.03 ERA in his first eight starts) before recovering in the middle part of the season (8-4, 3.34 ERA, 84 K, 20 BB in 86.1 IP), only to struggle at the end (1-3, 7.15 ERA in four August starts).  Niese was finally shut down for the season after a brutal start on August 23 in which he allowed eight runs on ten hits to the Phillies in four innings of work.  He would not pitch again until 2012, with the Mets not knowing what they were going to get from the inconsistent, oft-injured Niese.

But then Sandy Alderson and the Mets' front office gave Niese an unexpected present during the first week of the season, signing the homegrown lefty to a five-year, $25.5 million contract, with two team options that could pay him an extra $21 million and keep him in Flushing until 2018.  The security has clearly helped Niese, as he has responded with the best season of his career.

Jonathon Niese made the first-place Nats look like a Little League team with his dominating performance last night.

After last night's brilliant performance (7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 7 K) against the team with the best record in baseball, the Washington Nationals, Niese improved his season record to 10-6 and lowered his ERA to 3.49.  More importantly, he has been able to pitch effectively well into the latter part of the season, something that had eluded him over his major league career.  Since June 3, Niese has gone 7-4 with a 2.89 ERA.  But the best part of this stretch has been his control, as Niese has struck out 78 batters while walking only 13 in his last 14 starts, an average of six strikeouts and less than one walk per start.

Prior to 2012, Niese had never won more than 11 games in a season.  He is now one win away from matching his career high with six weeks remaining.  Niese is also 19 strikeouts from setting a new personal high.  But his ability to control his pitches is what has finally turned him into a quality major league pitcher.  From 2008 to 2011, Niese had never finished a season with a WHIP under 1.40.  This year, it's down to 1.15.  Niese has also improved his strikeout to walk ratio in each season he's been in the majors, going from 1.38 K/BB in 2008 to 2.00 K/BB in 2009, all the way up to this season's 3.39 K/BB ratio.  As a result, Niese has stayed in ballgames longer, giving his team a better chance to win.  Niese has pitched a minimum of six innings in each of last 14 starts, pitching at least seven innings in ten of the 14.

In a season featuring the exploits of R.A. Dickey and the no-hitter by Johan Santana, it has been Jonathon Niese who has been the most consistent starter on the staff.  Even Dickey, who could be on his way to the first 20-win season by a Met since 1990, has been inconsistent of late, going 3-3 with a 4.39 ERA in his last nine games (eight starts).

The face of inconsistency for the Mets over the past few seasons has finally gotten it together.  Although it took him a few years to get there, Jonathon Niese has become the pitcher the Mets expected him to be.  With Niese signed through the 2016 season, it's good to know that the team will have a dependable arm in the rotation for many years to come.

R.A. Dickey Is Quietly All About Quality

Shhh.  Don't tell anyone.  But R.A. Dickey is quietly approaching a few Mets greats in the team's record books.

With last night's 5-2 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies, R.A. Dickey recorded his 14th consecutive quality start (minimum of six innings pitched with no more than three earned runs allowed), dating back to last year.  It is currently the longest such streak in baseball.

Over the streak, which began last July 25 in Cincinnati when Dickey allowed two earned runs in 6⅔ innings in a 4-2 victory over the Reds, Dickey has been phenomenal.  In those 14 starts, Dickey has posted a 2.40 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  However, due to poor run support, he has only received credit for six victories during the skein.  How impressive is Dickey's quality start streak?  He's about to reach rarefied air with it.

In 1985, Dwight Gooden started his Cy Young campaign with 17 consecutive quality starts, a streak that ended on July 4 when he was pulled after 2⅓ innings because of a rain delay (long-time Mets fans will remember that game as the Fireworks Night game in Atlanta).  Gooden also closed out the 1984 season with four consecutive quality starts, giving him a team-record 21 straight quality starts over the two seasons.

Tom Seaver holds the team record for most consecutive quality starts in one season.  From June 13 to September 13, 1973, Seaver recorded 19 straight quality starts.  Ironically, the streak could have ended on July 4, as Gooden's did 12 years later, when Seaver allowed five runs in 7⅓ innings against the Montreal Expos.  However, because of an error by shortstop Ted Martinez (who was filling in for the injured Bud Harrelson), two of the runs were unearned.  Therefore, Seaver's quality start streak was allowed to continue as he only allowed three earned runs in that Independence Day loss to the Expos.

Although Seaver's 19-game quality start streak in 1973 is the longest such streak for a Mets pitcher over one season, it wasn't the only time Seaver recorded 19 consecutive quality starts.  In 1971, a year in which Seaver was robbed of the Cy Young Award by the Cubs' Ferguson Jenkins - Seaver went 20-10 and led the league with a 1.76 ERA, 289 strikeouts and 0.945 WHIP, while Jenkins went 24-13 but had a 2.77 ERA and led the league in hits allowed (304) and home runs allowed (29) - Tom Terrific ended the season with 16 straight quality starts.  He also recorded quality starts in each of his first three appearances in 1972, giving him 19 quality starts in a row over two seasons.

Now R.A. Dickey is working on a quality start streak of his own.  After ending the 2011 season with 12 consecutive quality starts, he has begun the 2012 campaign with two more.  If this stretch of good pitching continues, he will reach legendary Mets pitchers Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden by Memorial Day.

Tom Seaver.  Dwight Gooden.  R.A. Dickey.  Prior to last July, one of those names would not have belonged with the others.  But when it comes to quality starts, those three names might be forever linked together in Mets lore.  Not bad for a converted knuckleball pitcher who only had 18 career quality starts prior to becoming a Met.