Showing posts with label Dillon Gee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dillon Gee. Show all posts

Saturday, December 13, 2014

Joey's Letter To Sandy Claus (2014)

I hope Sandy Claus leaves everything I ask for under my ridiculously huge tree.

Dear Sandy Claus,

It's me, Joey Beartran!  And if I'm writing you this letter, that means it's that time of year again - the time when you have to decide who was naughty and who was nice in order to determine who gets what they want this holiday season and who gets coal in their stocking.

I know you must be tired from all your recent travels.  I mean, I would be pooped as well if I was spending all my time and energy trying to find good bargains on coveted holiday gifts like Michael Cuddyer and John Mayberry, Jr.  I'm sure you had to fight off many people to secure them.

But unlike others who absolutely have to have the best in right-handed hitting outfield/first baseman hybrids, I'm a simple bear.  And that is why this year's list shouldn't be much of a challenge for you.  Because my list is so simple, you should have no problem finding everything on it and we can overlook whether or not I should be on the "naughty" or "nice" list.  (Personally, I don't think causing one of the toilets to overflow in the Caesar's Club last summer should put me on your "naughty" list.  It could have happened to anyone who was trying to flush their autographed Chris Young baseball.)

Are you ready, Mr. Claus?  Here goes!

The home run apple outside Citi Field seems like a good place to write my letter to Sandy Claus.

I would like Matt Harvey to return to the rotation in the best of health.  You already wouldn't let him pitch in 2014 despite his constant nitpicking, so he should be good to go next season.  (And don't worry, I'm not going to accuse you of wanting to extend his free agent clock another year by not pitching him at all in 2014.  Remember, I'm nice, not naughty.)  Also, please don't let Harvey pitch too many innings in 2015.  I'm expecting the Mets to compete for a postseason berth so I'd like him to be as fresh as possible for any potential starts in mid-to-late October.

Speaking of returning to health, I would like a return to form for David Wright.  After all, he gets paid more than your reindeer and elves combined, so he might as well earn his salary.  Eight home runs and eight stolen bases is just not enough for a player who produced a 30/30 season in 2007.  I mean, if you want that type of production, just bring back Jason Bay.  That's what he averaged in three seasons with the Mets, although Bay averaged just 96 games per season as a Met, while Wright put up his 8/8 season in 134 games.

I'd also like a new and improved shortstop.  Yes, I know we already have Wilmer Flores and that Hakuna Tejada guy, but Flores' best position is hitter and Tejada is probably going to press next year now that he knows he produced more walks, doubles, and RBI than Nationals' wunderkind Bryce Harper, all while striking out fewer times than Harper and reaching base at a similar clip in just three more at-bats.  Don't believe me, Sandy Claus?  Take a look for yourself.

Player RBI Year AB 2B BB SO OBP
Ruben Tejada 34 2014 355 11 50 73 .342
Bryce Harper 32 2014 352 10 38 104 .344
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/13/2014.

Would it be too much to ask for another good year from the bullpen?  After three seasons of throwing relief pitchers at a wall and hoping some of them would stick, you finally found some with good adhesive qualities.  They also had good fastballs and off-speed pitches.  Jeurys Familia was so spectacular that he finished tied for seventh in the Rookie of the Year vote, a feat almost unheard of for a middle reliever/set-up man.  Vic Black earned two wins and 12 holds, allowing more than one run in just one of his 41 appearances.  And Jenrry Mejia's 28 saves set the franchise record for most saves by a homegrown pitcher, surpassing Tug McGraw's 42-year-old record by one.  Please make sure they continue to provide a spark for the team in the late innings.

Speaking of Jenrry Mejia, could you please let him know that it's okay to toss a 1-2-3 inning every once in a while?  Mejia made 56 relief appearances in 2014 and retired every batter he faced in just 21 of those outings.  In sixteen of his 24 one-inning saves, he faced a minimum of four batters.  The numbers "1-2-3-4" might have been staples at Ramones concerts, but they shouldn't have to be staples of Mejia performances.

I'd like Daniel Murphy to stick around for at least another season.  In 2014, he became the first second baseman in Mets history to reach base 200+ times in three different seasons, so why shouldn't the Mets keep him around?  And if they did trade him before Opening Day, who would they give the job to?  Eric Young, Jr. was just non-tendered and Dilson Herrera, who won't be old enough to drink until March, still needs more minor league seasoning.  If the Mets do make the playoffs in 2015, Murphy should be there to enjoy it as the second longest tenured player on the team.  His teammates left him stranded on third in a crucial moment during the final week of the 2008 season.  His front office shouldn't do the same by trading him away just as the team appears to be heading toward contention again.

Are you there, Sandy?  It's me, Joey!

If it's not too much to ask, can you please make sure Lucas Duda has another solid season like he had last year?  Can you also have Curtis Granderson replicate Duda's power numbers?  And while I'm at it, can you get your decoder ring out so you can translate Travis d'Arnaud's second half performance into a full season of fantastic hitting?  Perhaps if all three hitters could give solid production, David Wright would have the protection he needs in the batting order and I wouldn't have to compare him to Jason Bay in future letters to you.

Finally, I understand the Mets have to trade a starting pitcher, especially with Matt Harvey coming back to claim one of the spots in the rotation, but does it have to be Dillon Gee?  I know how much you love dumping salary, which is why Carlos Beltran, Jason Bay, Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo were all given their walking papers before their contracts expired.  So maybe this is a good time to escort Bartolo Colon to the airport.  He served his purpose in 2014 at a $9 million cost to the team.  Now he's due to earn $11 million in 2015 and he'll be 42 before Memorial Day.  He should be the one to go to make room for Harvey.  And I'm not just saying that because he hogs up the Shake Shack line at Citi Field.  I just happen to like Gee.  What's so wrong with that?

I was only being held by Gee because it was easier to check up on his pitching arm that way.  Honest!

That's it for my letter this year, Sandy.  See, it was a very simple list.  All you have to do is remember to keep Matt Harvey healthy, prevent David Wright from watching his "Jason Bay Guide to Hitting" video, give me a shortstop not named Flores or Tejada who can hit AND field (not hit OR field), provide me with another dependable relief corps, show Jenrry Mejia how to count to three, make sure the Grandy Man can actually protect Wright (Duda and d'Arnaud can help in that regard), and last but not least, keep Dillon Gee from putting his arms around another team's uniform.

You've been able to provide me with many of the things I've asked for in the past few years, but not everything.  (I wanted a healthy Johan Santana in 2013.  Instead, you gave me a healthy Shaun Marcum.  Not the same.  Not even close.)  That's why I made this year's list a little easier for you.  As nice as I was this past season - pay no attention to the Chris Young Bathroom Incident - I don't expect you to make all my holiday dreams come true.  But as a long-suffering Mets fan, you owe me!  You owe all fans who have invested so much of their time and money on this team.  And while I'm on the topic of being owed, you also owe me change for a hot dog I had last September.  I paid with a $10 bill and only got a buck in return.

Thanks a lot for reading my letter, Sandy Claus!  I hope you can fit everything I asked for under my ridiculously huge tree.  I also hope you found a good plumber for the Caesar's Club.  I intend to use the bathrooms there at some point in 2015.  Maybe this time I won't have to bring a baseball with me.

All my love,
Joey Beartran

Hope this makes it to you on time, Sandy.  If not, I'll have to write another letter to my local post office.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Dillon Gee vs. Jonathon Niese: Who Should Be Traded?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports/Getty Images via ESPNNewYork.com

I love watching Dillon Gee pitch.  Similarly, I am a fan of Jonathon Niese.

Although the Mets have been under .500 every season Gee has pitched in the majors, Gee himself has a won-loss record that is six games over .500 and he has never been more than one game under the break-even mark over a full season.  Jonathon Niese, on the other hand, is one of the few Mets left on the team who played at Shea Stadium (David Wright, Daniel Murphy and Bobby Parnell are the others, although Murphy and Parnell may not be on this list much longer).  Niese is also the team's only southpaw on a staff filled with right-handed pitchers.

As much as I enjoy having Gee and Niese on the team, I understand that the starting rotation currently has Bartolo Colon, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom taking up four spots, with Noah Syndergaard waiting in the wings.  Assuming Colon is traded at some point during the 2015 season (if not sooner), Syndergaard would be the obvious choice to replace him in the rotation.  That would leave one of the members of the Gee-Niese duo out of luck and perhaps out of a job in New York.

Knowing full well that either Gee or Niese will not be a Met by this time next year, I decided to see which player the Mets would be better off keeping.  One or both pitchers might be traded if the right deal comes along, but I think one of the two would be better off staying in the Mets' starting rotation.  Here's my reasoning for the player I would like to stick around.

Although he has a 3.91 ERA for his career, Dillon Gee has had only one full season in the majors in which he posted an ERA under 4.00.  Advanced metrics also have his lifetime FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) at 4.23.  For all you kids out there, FIP measures how effective a pitcher is at limiting home runs, walks and hit batsmen while causing strikeouts.  Basically, those are the four categories in which fielders do not determine an outcome.  Therefore, Gee's 4.23 FIP is considered a little higher than what is expected from an average pitcher.

Jonathon Niese has a 3.87 career ERA, but has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of his last three seasons, going under 3.50 in two of the last three campaigns.  But on the FIP side, Niese has a lifetime 3.72 FIP and has posted a FIP under 4.00 in each of his last four seasons.  Niese has walked more batters than Gee, but has hit fewer batters and allowed fewer home runs per nine innings than Gee.  And when it comes to strikeouts, Niese is far superior to Gee, as Niese has surpassed 130 strikeouts in a season four times, while Gee has done it just once.

Speaking of strikeouts, although Niese is just 28 years old (he's actually six months younger than Dillon Gee), he's already in the Mets' all-time top ten in career strikeouts.  Niese's 713 Ks are tenth on the team's lifetime leaderboard and he is just one strikeout behind Bobby Jones for ninth place.  Once he passes Jones, the only pitchers in front of him will be Tom Seaver, Dwight Gooden, Jerry Koosman, Sid Fernandez, David Cone, Ron Darling, Al Leiter and Jon Matlack.  You may also know that octet as arguably the eight best pitchers in the history of the franchise.   Niese's strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.69; 713 K/265 BB) is also far better than Gee's ratio (2.26; 464 K/205 BB).

Let's look at another new metric to determine a pitcher's effectiveness - ERA+.  This metric compares a pitcher's earned run average to the league average and also accounts for park factors, with 100 being considered an average ERA+.  For example, Citi Field is generally considered a pitcher's park.  However, Dillon Gee has never posted an ERA+ of 100 in any of his four full seasons.  From 2011 to 2014, Gee has posted a 90 ERA+, with a career-best 98 ERA+ in 2013, which is still 2% worse than the average pitcher.  Meanwhile, Jonathon Niese has a 97 ERA+ since he became a regular in the rotation in 2010.  But since 2012, Niese has a 104 ERA+, making him 4% better than the average pitcher over the last three seasons.  Niese's career-best performance in this metric came in 2012, when he posted a 112 ERA+.

WAR (wins above replacement) is all the rage in this sabermetric era of baseball.  The higher the WAR, the better the player.  It's that simple.  Looking at the WAR posted by Gee and Niese since 2011 (the year both pitchers were rotation-mates for the first time), it's clear which pitcher has been more valuable to the team.  Gee has a 4.5 WAR since 2011, going above 1.0 just once in the four years (2013, when he posted a 2.2 WAR).  In the same time period, Niese has a 6.2 WAR, posting a 3.4 WAR in 2012 and a 1.7 WAR this past season.

WAR.  What is it good for?  For Niese, it might be good for keeping him in New York.  (Brad Penner/USA Today Sports)

Finally, let's look at one overlooked, but still important, part of the pitcher's game - his offense.  When a pitcher comes to bat, he's not expected to do much.  If there's a runner on base, he's expected to bunt him over.  If there's no one on base, the best a pitcher is expected to do is not get hurt swinging the bat and maybe make the opposing pitcher throw a few extra pitches.  When it comes to proficiency with the bat, there's no contest between Gee and Niese.

Since becoming a regular in the rotation in 2011, Dillon Gee has a .154 on-base percentage, reaching base 27 times (18 hits, nine walks) in 206 plate appearances.  Meanwhile, since Niese joined the rotation for good in 2010, he has reached base an incredible 66 times (38 hits, 28 walks) in 304 plate appearances, which is a .237 on-base percentage.  Of all pitchers with at least 200 plate appearances since 2010, only Zack Greinke (.274 OBP in 245 PA) and Mike Leake (.261 OBP in 338 PA) have a higher on-base percentage than Jonathon Niese and only Ian Kennedy has drawn more walks (32 BB in 342 PA) than Niese.  Kennedy and Niese are the only pitchers who have walked more than 20 times since 2010.

So let's review.  Jonathon Niese has a better ERA, ERA+, FIP and WAR than Dillon Gee.  Niese is also much more adept at recording strikeouts than Gee and has a better K/BB ratio.  And while Gee is almost an automatic out with the bat, Niese gives the Mets a ninth hitter in the lineup, reaching base just under a quarter of the time.  Niese isn't going to break into a home run trot any time soon, but he has proven to be one of the better handlers of the bat among National League pitchers.

Dillon Gee will blow out 29 candles during the first month of the 2015 campaign.  Jonathon Niese will be 28 all season.  Niese has more experience than Gee, having pitched at Shea Stadium.  Niese is also left-handed, something no other starting pitcher on the Mets can claim.  Although Gee is still arbitration eligible and will likely not command more than $5 million in 2015, Niese is due $7 million in 2015 and $9 million in 2016, hardly amounts that would break the Wilpon family piggy bank.

If the Mets are going to trade one of their veteran homegrown pitchers before the curtains rise on the 2015 season, it should be clear which one should go.  Although I've always enjoyed watching him pitch and still believe he can be successful in New York, Dillon Gee will probably be the victim of an overcrowded starting rotation.  Jonathon Niese, despite all the question marks surrounding his health, has still made at least 24 starts in each of his five full seasons in the majors.  Gee has surpassed 22 starts just twice in his four full seasons with the Mets.  Also, Niese may not always utter the most politically correct statements, especially when it comes to Mets fans' loyalty, but you can't say he was pulling things out of his posterior.  If the Mets are going to draw the crowds Niese was used to seeing when he was a neophyte, then the team has to play better.  And right now, I believe the team will perform better with Niese on the team instead of Gee.

Of course, trading Gee or Niese will depend on the package the Mets would receive in return, but if each package was similar and the Mets had an option of trading either player, then that player should be Gee.  The future of the team would look a lot brighter if it held on to Niese.
 

Monday, March 31, 2014

Joey's Unhappy Recap: A National Disaster On Opening Day

Hi, everyone.  This is Joey Beartran.  In addition to my roving reporter and culinary expert duties for Studious Metsimus, I occasionally write a happy game recap.  More often than not, that recap comes on Opening Day, but today's season opener was anything by happy for the Mets and their fans.

Everything started out happy for me and my Studious Metsimus colleagues.  We attended a tailgate outside the ballpark where we had a tasty burger.  And that, my friends, was the extent of our happiness.

Happy days are here again.  Then the game started.

Oh, sure, the Mets took an early 3-0 lead on a home run into our section by Andrew Brown (I didn't have my glove with me so I let some kid catch it).  And yes, after a poor second inning in which he allowed a long two-run homer to Adam LaRoche, Dillon Gee settled down to retire 15 consecutive batters.  But you have to consider this.  Dillon Gee wasn't going to pitch a complete game.  And Andrew Brown was the Mets' offensive star.

You had a feeling this wasn't going to end well.

Once Gee was removed from the game in the seventh inning, the bullpen pitched as if every Nationals hitter was named Eddie Gaedel.  Entering the game with the Mets still leading, 4-3, Carlos Torres threw four straight balls to pinch-hitter Nate McLouth.  Then Scott Rice came into the game and thought he was playing Horse.  That's the only explanation I can see for Rice throwing four consecutive balls to Denard Span - he didn't want to get saddled with an "H".

The back-to-back free passes allowed the Nats to tie the game.  And somewhere in the dugout, Dillon Gee sulked.

Dillon Gee walks dejectedly off the mound in the seventh.  Many other Met pitchers would follow suit.

The Mets eventually got out of the inning when Jose Valverde (reliever No. 3 in the inning) struck out Mr. National himself, Ryan Zimmerman.  After retiring the side in order in the eighth, Valverde was in line to pick up the win after Juan Lagares gave the Mets a 5-4 lead with a home run in the bottom of the eighth.

But these are the Mets.  And even though they're the most successful Opening Day team in big league history, they still found a way to send the sellout crowd home disappointed.

Down to their last out, the Nationals tied the game in the ninth off Mets closer Bobby Parnell.  Then Washington scored four runs in the tenth off Jeurys Familia and ex-Nationals pitcher John Lannan.  The big blow came off Lannan, as the southpaw allowed a three-run homer to Anthony Rendon.  In six years with Washington, Lannan won 42 games.  Looks like he won another one for them today.

By the time David Wright hit a meaningless two-run homer in the Mets' half of the tenth (the third time in six seasons Wright has homered in the Mets' home opener), the number of empty seats outnumbered the number of filled ones.

All you need to know about this game is that Dillon Gee allowed four hits and two walks in six and two-thirds innings.  Then six relievers combined to give up five hits and four walks in just three and a third innings.  And oh yeah, Curtis Granderson went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts and the first base combo of Ike Davis and Lucas Duda both went 0-for-2.  The Mets as a team struck out 18 times, led by Eric Young, Jr., who fanned four times.  I mean, if he wanted to wear a golden sombrero so badly, he could have just borrowed Ballapeño's rally sombrero and painted it gold.

So that's it, Mets fans.  Although this past weekend's rainy weather left before the first pitch was thrown, the game itself was still a washout.  It's never a good thing to write an unhappy recap.  It's even worse when it comes on Opening Day.  Let's hope I don't have to write too many of these in 2014.

Washington's Bryce Harper goes down in the second inning.  The Mets would do the same eight innings later.

Friday, March 28, 2014

Milestones Within Reach for Members of the 2014 Mets

On Monday, the Mets will begin their 53rd season of play, looking to begin the season with a 1-0 record for the 35th time.  New York's .654 winning percentage in season-opening games is tops in the majors, ahead of the Baltimore Orioles, who are second with a .580 success rate on Opening Day.  (For the record, the Mets are 27-25 on Opening Day II, a dropoff from their won-loss record in Game 1s, but still not bad for a team that's nearly 400 games under .500 in all other games played.)

The Mets would like to continue their team success on Opening Day in 2014, and obviously would like that magic to spread to all other games throughout the season, unless if the Wilpons have been secretly replaced by Rachel Phelps, the "owner" of the Cleveland Indians in Major League.

While the team attempts to put big numbers up on the scoreboard and the win column, several of its players are also close to reaching significant individual milestones.  Some of the milestones will get honorable mentions on the Citi Field scoreboard and will cause the players who reached them to receive standing ovations.  Unfortunately, some other milestones will be embarrassing to the players and will cause them to send me direct messages asking me not to share those moments with their friends or loved ones.  To which I say, "Stop striking out so much, Ike, and I wouldn't have to write about you approaching the 500-strikeout plateau in well under 2,000 at-bats!"

But I digress.

Anyhoo, here are the milestones that your favorite Mets players should have no problem reaching at some point during the 2014 season.  And once those players reach those numbers, please feel free to share them on Twitter before anyone else gets a chance to do so.  That way your friends can either marvel at your Mets knowledge or call you the biggest geek they know.  Enjoy!


Attainable Individual Milestones (Position Players)


Ike Davis better not set any new club records for striking poses with his eyes closed after striking out.


David Wright:

  • Needs 31 home runs to surpass Darryl Strawberry as the Mets' all-time leader.
  • Needs 53 plate appearances and 263 at-bats to knock Ed Kranepool down to No. 2 in both categories.
  • Needs 17 stolen bases for 200 and 19 steals to be ahead of every Met not named Jose Reyes or Mookie Wilson.
  • Needs 1 hit-by-pitch to end Ron Hunt's four-decade reign as the team's top punching bag.


Daniel Murphy:

  • Needs 11 home runs and 8 steals to become the 11th Met to attain 50 HR and 50 SB.
  • Needs 18 doubles to enter the Mets' all-time top ten in that category.
  • Needs to reach double digits in homers and steals to prove 2013 wasn't a fluke season.


Ike Davis:

  • Needs 33 homers to reach 100 and to set a single-season career-high.
  • Needs 19 doubles to reach 100 and to still be well behind Daniel Murphy and David Wright in two-baggers.
  • Needs 89 strikeouts for 500 and just as many boos.
  • Needs 1 good season to avoid being traded or demoted.


Curtis Granderson:

  • Needs 20 runs scored for 800.
  • Needs 1 double for 200.
  • Needs 1 double to become the 11th MLB player in the last 50 years to reach 200 doubles, 80 triples and 200 homers.
  • Needs 1 decent season to have a better Mets career than Jason Bay.


Ruben Tejada:

  • Needs a whole lotta luck.



Attainable Individual Milestones (Pitchers)


Bartolo Colon almost fit within the borders of this photo.  Almost.


Jonathon Niese:

  • Needs 7 wins for 50.
  • Needs 97 strikeouts to enter the Mets' all-time top ten.
  • Needs to stay off the disabled list, please.


Dillon Gee:

  • Needs 19 starts for 100.
  • Needs 130 strikeouts for 500.
  • Needs to repeat his second half of 2013 and stretch it out for both halves of 2014.


Bartolo Colon:

  • Needs 11 wins for 200.
  • Needs 50 strikeouts for 2,000.
  • Needs to turn Harvey Day into Día de Colon.
  • Needs to stay as far away from Shake Shack during his bullpen sessions.


Zack Wheeler:

  • Needs 6 wins to have more career victories than Matt Harvey.  (For that matter, Noah Syndergaard needs 13 victories to join Wheeler in that respect.)


Bobby Parnell:

  • Needs 2 games for 300.
  • Needs 14 saves for 50.
  • Needs 22 saves to finally knock Braden Looper out of the Mets' all-time top ten saves leaders.
  • Needs to not turn his neck whenever he gives up a long fly ball.  (It's probably not leaving the park anyway and he's still recovering from neck surgery.)

With just 22 saves in 2014, Bobby Parnell will cause Braden Looper to walk right out of the Mets' top ten.  Let's go Bobby!!

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Bartolo Colon Is Always In Control

Photo by Jeff Chiu/AP

With Matt Harvey sidelined for the 2014 season, the Mets needed to add a quality arm to the starting rotation.  Today they got their man, as the team signed veteran right-hander Bartolo Colon to a two-year, $20 million contract.

Colon has been an excellent pitcher for a decade and a half.  He has a 189-128 record in the major leagues with a 3.94 ERA and 1,950 strikeouts in just under 2,600 innings.  Colon is a three-time All-Star who has four top-six Cy Young Award finishes on his résumé.  He has also had five years with 18 or more wins, including this past season, when he went 18-6 for the AL West champion Oakland A's.  Just seven pitchers have ever won as many as 18 games in a season for the Mets and only Tom Seaver (six times), Dwight Gooden (three times) and Jerry Koosman (two times) have ever accomplished the feat more than once as a Met.

It's true that Bartolo Colon will be 41 next May.  It's also true that last season was the first time since 2005 that Colon made as many as 30 starts in a season.  But when Colon is on the mound, he gives his team something that very few pitchers can provide.  He hardly ever walks a batter.  Ever.  And over the past two seasons, his pinpoint control has put him in a special class.

In 2012, Colon made 24 starts for the A's.  He walked 23 batters.  In 2013, Colon took the hill 30 times, walking just 29 batters.  That's two straight seasons in which Colon has had more starts than walks.  How rare is it for a pitcher to do that in consecutive years?  Well, the last pitcher to do it was Greg Maddux in 2007 (34 starts, 25 walks) and 2008 (33 starts, 30 walks) and he's up for Hall of Fame consideration next month.

There has never been a Mets pitcher who has posted back-to-back seasons with more starts than walks.  In fact, since the Mets came into existence in 1962, only three pitchers have ever completed a season of 20 starts or more with fewer walks than starts.  Those pitchers are Ed Lynch (1985), Bret Saberhagen (1994) and Rick Reed (1998, 2001).

Bartolo Colon brings a lot of experience and talent to the mound.  He also brings a lot of control.  Jonathon Niese, Dillon Gee and Zack Wheeler combined to walk 141 batters in 73 starts, an average of almost two walks per start.  Colon has averaged less than one walk per start over the last two years.

Control is contagious.  Or at least that's what the Mets hope for now that Bartolo Colon is on the staff.  His fellow moundsmen will certainly benefit from having a teammate who's always in complete control.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Decisions, Decisions: Mets Starters Didn't Get Them


No-decisions.  Starting pitchers for the Mets got quite used to them in 2013.  Dillon Gee led the team with 23 decisions, followed by Jonathon Niese with only 16.  A dozen pitchers started games for the Mets this past season, combining to record 57 no-decisions.

Excluding the strike seasons of 1981, 1994 and 1995, there has never been a season in franchise history in which no starting pitcher earned 20 decisions.  But two teams came close.  In 1982, Mike Scott led the club in decisions with exactly 20, going 7-13 for the last place Mets.  Of course, that was also the year manager George Bamberger decided to use all of his starters out of the bullpen as well.

No starting pitcher made more than 24 starts for the Mets in 1982, as Charlie Puleo (24 starts, 12 relief appearances), Pete Falcone (23 starts, 17 relief appearances), Mike Scott (22 starts, 15 relief appearances), Craig Swan (21 starts, 16 relief appearances), Randy Jones (20 starts, 8 relief appearances), Pat Zachry (16 starts, 20 relief appearances) and Ed Lynch (12 starts, 31 relief appearances) were all used by Bamberger in every possible way, including save opportunities.  Of the seven pitchers listed above, only Randy Jones failed to earn a save.

The only other team in Mets history to have only one starting pitcher record exactly 20 decisions in a non-strike-shortened season was the 1980 squad.  Like Scott two years later, Ray Burris went 7-13 for the 1980 Mets.  But unlike Scott and his fellow moundsmen, all of Burris' 29 appearances in 1980 came as a starting pitcher.

For the record, Bobby Jones led the 1994 Mets with only 19 decisions, but that season came to an abrupt end in mid-August due to a players' strike.  In each of the other two strike-shortened seasons (1981, 1995), one Met did reach 20 decisions.  Pat Zachry went 7-14 for the 1981 club, while Bobby Jones finished 10-10 for the 1995 squad.

With 57 no-decisions in 2013, the Mets finished way up in the top ten for most no-decisions for a starting staff in team history.  Below is the current top ten.


Year
No-Decisions
Starting Pitchers With The Most Decisions
1980
65
Ray Burris (20), Mark Bomback (18)
1979
57
Craig Swan (27), Pete Falcone (20)
2013
57
Dillon Gee (23), Jonathon Niese (16)
1978
56
Nino Espinosa (26), Jerry Koosman (18)
2008
56
Mike Pelfrey (24), Johan Santana (23)
2004
55
Tom Glavine (25), Steve Trachsel (25)
1992
54
Sid Fernandez (25), Dwight Gooden (23)
2000
54
Mike Hampton (25), Al Leiter (24)
1997
53
Bobby Jones (24), Rick Reed (22)
2010
53
Mike Pelfrey (24), Johan Santana/R.A. Dickey (20)


The 2013 Mets tied the 1979 squad for second-most no-decisions in franchise history, surpassed only by the 1980 team.  Dillon Gee was the only pitcher to earn more than 16 decisions for the Mets in 2013, making this year's club the only one in team history to have just one hurler with at least 17 decisions in a season that wasn't curtailed by a strike.

No-decisions are the result of many things.  Sometimes they occur because starting pitchers don't go as deep into games as they used to, allowing for a reliever to vulture a victory or ten.  Bullpens also aren't as good as they used to be, causing starting pitchers to reach for antacid tablets every time a potential "W" turns into an "ND".  And occasionally a faulty offense doesn't give a starting pitcher much run support, causing him to leave a 2-2 game, 1-1 game, or scoreless pitching duel for a pinch-hitter.

This year's team was a victim of all three.  Matt Harvey pitched well enough to be among the league leaders in wins.  But a dozen no-decisions said otherwise.  Jeremy Hefner has to know how Matt Harvey feels, as he was saddled with 11 no-decisions in 23 starts.  And Dillon Gee was brilliant after his start against the Yankees on May 30.  But even a 2.71 ERA over his last 22 starts wasn't been able to prevent him from earning five losses and seven no-decisions in that time period.

Decisions, decisions.  This year's starting pitchers struggled to earn them.  And their drought was surpassed by just one team in team history.  It's tough to win many games when the starting pitchers aren't getting the Ws for the team.

Friday, October 4, 2013

A Year With No Harvey Days May Be A Good Thing


The 2013 season just ended for the Mets and their fans.  But the 2014 campaign has already come to a close for Matt Harvey before it even began.  The Mets' All-Star right-hander has decided to undergo Tommy John surgery, which will be performed later this month by Dr. James Andrews.

Anytime a team loses its ace in the rotation, it's a tough blow to take.  But Harvey's absence might not be a bad thing for the Mets.  Allow me to explain.

Clearly, the Mets are going to need to acquire a starting pitcher to replace Harvey in the rotation, preferably an innings-eater.  Since Harvey is expected to be back in 2015, plus with the eventual call-up of Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, or both (assuming they're both not traded), the Mets only need to sign a starting pitcher to a team-friendly one-year deal.  If the Mets are out of the playoff race by the trade deadline, that veteran starter suddenly becomes trade bait.  In 2013, Marlon Byrd (playing with the Mets on a one-year contract) and John Buck (in the last year of his three-year deal) parlayed fine seasons into an August deal with the playoff-bound Pirates.  That got the Mets a solid relief pitcher in Vic Black and a good infield prospect in Dilson Herrera.  The same thing can happen in 2014, but this time with a starting pitcher being traded instead of a right fielder and a catcher.

But what if the Mets actually compete for a playoff spot in 2014?  Well, then they just keep the starting pitcher to complement the younger, less experienced pitchers in the rotation.  Look at what the more experienced Bob Ojeda did to the younger Dwight Gooden, Ron Darling and Sid Fernandez when he became a Met in 1986.  And don't forget the contributions by the late Don Cardwell as a member of the staff in 1969.

Without question, Matt Harvey will certainly be missed next year.  But his absence is not the end of the world, nor does it signify the end of the 2014 season six months before it has even begun.

The Mets will begin the season with Jonathon Niese, Dillon Gee and Zack Wheeler in the starting rotation.  The fourth starter's position can be filled by a veteran on a one-year deal (Dice-K Part Deux, maybe?  The Harang-atan?  Bronson Arroyo and his sweatshirt?), while the fifth starter can be either Carlos Torres or Jenrry Mejia (remember him?).  If the fourth and fifth starters perform reasonably well - great!  They'll immediately become attractive to other teams.  If they aren't dependable, Syndergaard and Montero will be more than happy to replace them by June.

Best case scenario - the Mets remain strong in the starting rotation and can trade some of their excess pitching for more pieces that will eventually make the team more complete in all facets of the game.

Worst case scenario - the fourth and fifth starters remind us of Shaun Marcum and Aaron Laffey and are quickly replaced by Syndergaard and/or Montero, who gain valuable experience before Harvey returns in 2015.

There will be no Harvey Days in 2014.  But that doesn't mean Mets fans will be left without happy days next season.  The rest of the starting rotation will make sure of that.
 

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Dillon Gee Pitches His Way Into Exclusive Company

Photo by Ed Leyro/Studious Metsimus

Prior to his start on May 30 against the Yankees, Dillon Gee was on the verge of losing his place in the starting rotation.  The Texas native was 2-6 with a 6.34 ERA and was hearing Zack Wheeler's footsteps as the über-prospect was just weeks away from being called up for his first taste of big league action.

But everything changed for Gee with that late-May start at Yankee Stadium.  Gee pitched into the eighth inning, allowing one run on four hits.  He also set a career high by striking out 12 batters without issuing a walk.

After allowing four runs or more in six of his first ten starts, Gee has allowed two runs or less in 14 of his last 21 starts.  His 2-6 record is now just a bad memory, as Gee is leading the team with 12 victories.  Since Matt Harvey's season ended with nine wins and no other pitcher on the Mets has more than seven, it's safe to assume that Gee will remain the team leader in pitching victories.  Therefore, the 2013 campaign will mark the second time in three seasons that Gee has led the team in wins, after finishing first on the Mets with 13 victories in 2011.

In doing so, Gee will become only the 14th pitcher in team history to lead the team or finish tied for the team lead in pitching victories multiple times.  The chart below lists the 14 pitchers who have accomplished this feat.


Pitcher
# of Times as Wins Leader
Years as Team Wins Leader
Tom Seaver
7
1967, 1969-73, 1975
Al Leiter
5
1998-2002
Dwight Gooden
4
1984-85, 1987, 1993
Steve Trachsel
4
2001, 2003-04, 2006
Al Jackson
3
1963-65
Jerry Koosman
3
1968, 1974, 1976
David Cone
3
1988-89, 1991
Jack Fisher
2
1965-66
Nino Espinosa
2
1977-78
Craig Swan
2
1979, 1982
Sid Fernandez
2
1989, 1992
Bobby Jones
2
1995, 1997
Johan Santana
2
2008-09
Dillon Gee
2
2011, 2013

With 33 major league victories under his belt, Dillon Gee has the second-fewest wins of the 14 pitchers who led the team in wins in at least two seasons.  (Nino Espinosa had 25 wins as a Met.)  But there are 30 pitchers in Mets history with more wins than Gee and most of them never led the team in wins more than once.  In fact, two of the top ten winners in franchise history never became two-time team leaders in wins.

Ron Darling had 99 wins as a Met - 4th all-time - but only led the team in wins once.  And when he did so (1989), he shared the team lead with David Cone and Sid Fernandez.  Similarly, Jon Matlack recorded 82 victories for the Mets - 7th all-time - but never led the team in wins.  (He can thank Seaver and Koosman for that.)

Tom Seaver.  Jerry Koosman.  Dwight Gooden.  Sid Fernandez.  David Cone.  Johan Santana.  Those are some of the best pitchers who have ever taken the mound for the Mets over their 50-plus years of existence.  In addition to being six of the finest pitchers to wear the orange and blue, they also have another thing in common.  All six have led or tied for the team lead in wins multiple times.  Their exclusive club now has a new member, and his name is Dillon Gee.

Dillon Gee has come a long way to become a top starter for the Mets.  He was overlooked in the first twenty rounds of the 2007 amateur draft before the Mets selected him in Round 21.  After pitching well in the lower levels of the minor leagues, Gee had an ERA near 5.00 at AAA-Buffalo.  But he never gave up hope.  And now he's accomplished something that Seaver, Koosman, Gooden, Fernandez, Cone, Santana and a small group of others have done.  Not bad for a pitcher who almost lost his spot in the rotation just four months ago.