A Different Kind of Jinx

Photo by David Banks/USA TODAY Sports

Matt Harvey was on the cover of this week's Sports Illustrated.  As anyone who knows anyone about sports, this "honor" is usually associated with a jinx, conveniently known as the Sports Illustrated Cover Jinx.  If you are unfamiliar with this jinx, here are a few examples.

In 1978, Pete Rose appeared on the cover of the magazine.  That week saw the end of his National League-record 44-game hitting streak.  In 1987, Cory Snyder and Joe Carter of the Cleveland Indians graced the cover along with a large Indians logo and the headline, "Indian Uprising".  The team then went on to finish the year with a major league-worst 61-101 record.  More recently, in 2010, Stephen Strasburg was featured on the cover just two months before he was forced to miss the rest of the season and most of the 2011 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  And who can forget Nelson Cruz of the Texas Rangers appearing on the cover of the October 24, 2011 issue of Sports Illustrated, just a few days before he misplayed David Freese's potential World Series-ending fly ball into a game-tying, two-run triple?

The jinx isn't limited to baseball, as football players, race car drivers, boxers, and countless other athletes have succumbed to the power of the periodical's curse.

Rarely has anyone been able to escape it.  It has also been said that its power is greater than the John Madden video game curse and even the notorious Joey Jinx, which has struck the Mets not once, but on numerous occasions.

That brings us to Matt Harvey, who is this week's Sports Illustrated cover model.  In his first start since gracing the magazine's cover, Harvey appeared unfazed by the jinx.  Not only did he get credit for his first win since April 19, but he also drove in what proved to be the game-winning run in the seventh inning.  Clearly, Matt Harvey has developed some kind of immunity toward the fabled curse.  But in developing that immunity, he seems to have deflected the jinx to all those around him.

Harvey has started nine games for the Mets in 2013, with the team winning seven of those nine starts.  But the Mets have gone on to lose all nine games immediately following his starts.  It's almost as bad in the second game following a Harvey start.  The Mets have won just three of those games this year.  That means the Mets are a combined 3-14 in the two games immediately following a game in which Matt Harvey took the mound.  (Tomorrow's affair will be the second game after Harvey's ninth start and is obviously not yet included in the aforementioned 3-14 record, although it wouldn't be much of a surprise if that number became 3-15 within the next 24 hours.)

The jinx isn't only limited to this season.  In fact, it began with Harvey's first start in the majors last July.  Harvey made ten starts for the Mets at the end of the 2012 campaign.  In the ten games immediately following a Matt Harvey start, the Mets went 3-7.  Let's do a little simple math now, shall we?

Matt Harvey has started 19 games for the Mets in his career.  The Mets have won ten of those 19 games, including seven of nine this year.  New York has also played 19 games after a start by Harvey.  The team has lost 16 of those 19 games.  That's 10-9 (starts by Harvey) vs. 3-16 (starts by the next schlemiel).

Is it possible that Sports Illustrated had this issue planned long before Matt Harvey's major league debut last year and it didn't see the light of day until this past week?  Are they aware Matt Harvey is immune to the cover jinx but is able to deflect the bad mojo associated with it to his fellow starters?

We may have discovered a new strand of the Sports Illustrated Cover Curse, one that doesn't affect the athlete on the cover, but spreads to those around him.  Clearly, Matt Harvey is not down with the SICC-ness.  It's just his fellow moundsmen who continue to be down in the loss column.
 

Friday Night Fights: Matt Harvey vs. Stephen Strasburg

As reported on Studious Metsimus first after last night's game, there was a possibility for a potential for a Matt Harvey-Stephen Strasburg matchup on Friday night at Citi Field, but only if inclement weather canceled at least one of the remaining road games on the Mets' current trip.  I suggested that Mets fans should go to their local bookstore and try to procure a copy of "Raindancing For Dummies" so they could send it to displaced Mets fans in Minnesota and Denver to get that necessary postponement.  Well, it looks as if my plan worked.

Just moments ago, the Mets released an official statement to announce that the finale of the three-game series in Minnesota has been canceled due to inclement weather.  The official New York Mets Twitter account then posted the pitching matchups for the four-game series in Colorado.  Take a quick glance at it and you might notice a specific member of the rotation who is not scheduled to pitch at Coors Field.

Rotation for the Rockies: Mon: Dillon Gee. Tue. Aaron Laffey. Wed. Jeremy Hefner. Thurs. Jonathon Niese.
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 14, 2013

Matt Harvey will not be pitching in Colorado this week, meaning he will indeed be starting the opener of the homestand against Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals.

If you were able to send one of the manuals to a displaced Mets fan in Denver, please contact them and tell them it's defective.  That way, they won't use it and we'll get that epic matchup on Friday night.  Barring any other weather-related cancellations, it appears as if many Mets fans, as well as baseball fans in general, will be in love with this matchup on Friday night. 

Friday I'm In Love (With This Pitching Matchup)

Matt Harvey almost made history today for the Mets, coming within seven outs of pitching the franchise's second no-hitter.  Although he didn't keep the Twins hitless, he did keep them behind the Mets all day en route to his third consecutive victory to start the season.

Given the weather forecasts for Minneapolis tomorrow and Denver next week, the Mets might have to shuffle their rotation if games get delayed or postponed.  If that happens, Mets fans might be in for a real treat next Friday when their beloved team returns to Citi Field to open a ten-game homestand against the division rival Washington Nationals.

Washington has already announced that their starting pitcher for Friday night's game against the Mets will be Stephen Strasburg.  Because of the uncertain weather conditions the Mets face in Minneapolis and Denver, Strasburg's opponent could very well be Matt Harvey.

As things currently stand, Dillon Gee is set to start tomorrow's finale against the Twins.  Gee would be followed by Jeremy Hefner on Monday in Colorado, Aaron Laffey on Tuesday and Jonathon Niese on Wednesday.  Harvey would be in line to pitch in the final game against the Rockies Thursday afternoon.  However, if tomorrow's game in Minnesota is rained out (and there's a 90% chance of rain being forecast for Sunday afternoon), Gee's start would be pushed back to Monday.

Of course, if the Mets have a game postponed over the next few days, manager Terry Collins could bypass Aaron Laffey's spot in the rotation and continue to pitch the other starters on four days' rest.  That would keep Harvey on pace to pitch Thursday.  But there is an 80% chance of precipitation for the Mile High City on Monday.  And on Wednesday night, the temperature is supposed to dip to a ridiculous-for-baseball 12°.  That's 12° Fahrenheit, not 12° Celsius (which converts to a more baseball-friendly 53° F).

If any of the games in Colorado are postponed, we might get a pitching matchup to drool over on Friday night at Citi Field.  It's such a juicy matchup, it deserves its own paragraph, italics, centering, boldface and a pair of photographs:

 Matt Harvey vs. Stephen Strasburg

As Mets fans, we never want to see Mother Nature deny us the opportunity to see our beloved team on a day the schedule tells us that they're supposed to play.  But the potential for a Harvey/Strasburg matchup at Citi Field is too intriguing to pass up.

Do yourselves a favor.  Pay a visit to your local bookstore and ask if they have a "Raindancing For Dummies" manual.  Then send it to a couple of displaced Mets fans living in Minnesota and Denver.  You won't regret it if we get the once-in-a-lifetime pitching matchup of Harvey vs. Strasburg at Citi Field on Friday night. 

Deep Thoughts With Sandy Alderson

Earlier today, Mets general manager Sandy Alderson appeared on WFAN, talking to Mike Francesa on the state of the team.  He regurgitated stuff we already knew (Scott Hairston is Plan B in the outfield), some things we didn't want to know (Brian Wilson left his velocity in San Francisco), and apparently has a fever, and the only prescription is more Cowgill (as in Collin Cowgill).

He also revealed three little nuggets that I'd like to chew on for a moment, if I may.

Like a master chess player, Sandy Alderson is always contemplating his next move.

Zack Wheeler will more than likely start the season at AAA-Las Vegas.  However, if the Mets can't acquire a starting pitcher to join Johan Santana, Jonathon Niese, Dillon Gee and Matt Harvey in the rotation, and if the trio of Jeremy Hefner, Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia fail to impress in spring training, then it wouldn't be out of the question for the team to consider having Wheeler on the Opening Day roster.

Alderson also revealed a very interesting tidbit about catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud. Apparently, prior to trading R.A. Dickey to Toronto, Alderson tried to swing a deal with another unnamed team. The Mets' general manager was asking for two top prospects in return for the Cy Young Award winner, but was turned down. However, after Alderson acquired d'Arnaud from the Blue Jays, the same team that wouldn't send their two prospects to the Mets for Dickey, asked if the Mets would be interested in those same prospects for d'Arnaud, to which Alderson told them "d'Ar-NO!"

Finally, Alderson stated that Matt Harvey would not have an innings limit imposed upon him in 2013. Last year, Harvey was two outs short of pitching 170 innings between AAA-Buffalo and the Mets before he was shut down for the season. Alderson admitted that the reason why Harvey was shut down before season's end in 2012 was because he had advanced so rapidly, moving through the Mets' minor league system in less than two years. Harvey is expected to remain in the Mets' rotation throughout the entire 2013 campaign and as a result, will not need to have his innings scaled back. If he pitches well enough to throw 200 innings, then he will throw 200 innings.

Regarding Zack Wheeler, I would rather he pitch part of the season at the Triple-A level before being called up to New York. Harvey made 20 starts at AAA-Buffalo before making a successful transition to the big leagues.  Wheeler has already made six starts in Triple-A.  That's not a large enough sample for the Mets to say he's ready to face hitters at the major league level. However, since he does have some Triple-A experience, he should receive his first promotion to the majors before the All-Star Break, assuming he continues to progress at Las Vegas.

The Travis d'Arnaud news was impressive. Clearly, the unnamed team (aren't they all unnamed when news like this surfaces?) thought so highly of d'Arnaud that they'd rather have him than the reigning Cy Young Award winner. Alderson must have loved rejecting their offer after they turned their noses up at his.

The one topic that caught my attention more than anything else (other than Francesa's constant interruptions) was the news that Matt Harvey will not be on an innings limit, to which I say "it's about ding-dong time!"

There will be no summer vacation for Matt Harvey this year. Just lots and lots of innings.

Every highly-touted young pitcher coming up to the big leagues seems to have an innings limit these days. Stephen Strasburg was not allowed to pitch more than 160 innings in 2012 and it might have cost the Washington Nationals a chance to play in the NLCS. Granted, Strasburg was coming off Tommy John surgery, but that was in 2010. He made a total of 11 starts in 2011 (six rehab, five at the major league level) and was deemed healthy at the start of 2012. Much closer to home, the Yankees came up with "Joba Rules" for their can't-miss pitching prospect, Joba Chamberlain, during his first few years in the majors.  Chamberlain has rewarded his team with various injuries and a 4.43 ERA in 154 games since 2009.

When Dwight Gooden broke camp with the Mets in 1984, he was just a teenager. But he still managed to throw 218 innings during his Rookie of the Year campaign and followed that up with two seasons of 250+ innings pitched. Injuries didn't contribute to his downfall in 1987. Drugs did. Prior to his first stint in rehab, Gooden was 58-19 with a 2.28 ERA. More importantly, he didn't spend a single day on the disabled list from 1984 to 1986. Although he was still only 21 after he had completed his third major league season in 1986, he had already proven to the team and the rest of the league that he didn't need to have his innings curtailed.

Matt Harvey will be 24 by Opening Day. He has already tossed over 300 innings of professional baseball. He's not in diapers, so the team shouldn't treat him like he is. Harvey is ready to bust out in a major way in 2013, and the Mets are right not to put any restrictions on him.

Rome wasn't built in a day. The powerhouse Mets of the '80s weren't built in a year. The same can be said for the current incarnation of the Mets.

Sandy Alderson has a plan. That plan includes the continued development of Matt Harvey, Travis d'Arnaud and Zack Wheeler. (I haven't forgotten about Noah Syndergaard. Neither has Sandy.)  It takes time to put together a well-crafted machine. And Sandy Alderson is doing his best to put all the pieces together so that they can run smoothly and effectively for many years to come.

The Stephen Strasburg Shutdown Is In Full Effect

 Stephen Strasburg may look like a "Lord of the Rings" extra, but his shutdown could have an impact on whether or not his teammates will get rings of their own come late October.

According to various media outlets, Nationals manager Davey Johnson has informed Stephen Strasburg that his season has come to an end before reaching his team-imposed innings limit.  Strasburg will not be making his scheduled start against the Mets' Matt Harvey at Citi Field on Wednesday as previously expected.

The decision comes on the heels of Strasburg's poor performance against the last-place Marlins on Friday night, in which he allowed five runs on six hits and three walks in a 67-pitch, three-inning effort.

Johnson claimed that Strasburg "didn't have his head in the game" and thinks that his young pitcher "is thinking too much about the decision when (the team is) going to shut him down".

Strasburg finished his first full season in the majors with a 15-6 record, 3.16 ERA and 197 strikeouts in 159⅓ innings.  Six-year veteran John Lannan will take Strasburg's spot in the Nationals' rotation and will start against Harvey on Wednesday.

The Nationals have not yet wrapped up their first National League East title.  With their defeat to the Marlins, and the Braves' 3-0 victory over the Mets, Washington's division lead dropped to 6½ games over Atlanta.  They will now have to hold off the Braves without the help of Stephen Strasburg.

They said they were going to do it.  We said we'd wait and see.  It looks like they weren't kidding.  The Stephen Strasburg shutdown is in full effect in Washington.  The hunt for the pennant just got a little more interesting in the nation's capital.

Win Some, Lose Some, Draw None

It has been well-documented that attendance at Citi Field suffered a significant drop-off from its inaugural season in 2009 to the just-completed 2010 season. Last year, a total of 3,168,571 tickets were sold to Mets home games. That number dropped to 2,559,738 in 2010.

The significant drop-off in home attendance can be attributed to numerous things, such as the luster of the new ballpark wearing off and the team's second consecutive losing season.

The new ballpark might have been enough to attract fans in 2009, but a good product on the field is what usually keeps fans in the seats. The Mets were not able to give the fans a good product on the field, so they didn't show up as often as they did in 2009, averaging only 32,401 fans per game in 2010.

Fair enough. The home fans had no desire to invest their time and money on a team that couldn't compete for a post-season spot. So how do you explain what happened to attendance figures once the Mets went on the road?

Believe it or not, out of the sixteen teams in the National League, the Mets finished dead last in road attendance. That's right, my friends. The Mets drew fewer fans on the road than the Washington Nationals and the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'll give you a moment to take that in...

...moment's up. The Mets drew an average of 29,318 fans per road game, slightly lower than the Washington Nationals' average of 29,664. No team in the National League brought fewer people to the ballpark on the road than the New York Mets. (By contrast, the New York Yankees led the major leagues in road attendance with an average of 34,939 fans per game.)

So what could possibly be the reason for the lack of interest in Mets road games? There may be a few.

The Mets don't have the marquee name that fans in other cities want to see. The Nationals, despite their last-place finish in the NL East, had phenom Stephen Strasburg on the mound for 12 starts, five of which were on the road. The following numbers are the attendance figures for Strasburg's five road games, followed by the average home attendance figures per game at that particular venue:

• June 13 @Cle: 32,876 (17,385)
• June 28 @Atl: 42,889 (30,989)
• July 16 @Fla: 27,037 (18,825)
• July 21 @Cin: 37,868 (25,438)
• Aug. 21 @Phi: 45,266 (45,027)

The average attendance for those five Strasburg road games was 37,133, which was 7,469 more than for an average Washington Nationals road game. Other than the road game in Philadelphia, which normally sells out all home games regardless of the opponent, the other four teams saw significant increases in their attendance in games that were started by Stephen Strasburg.

Who do the Mets have that fans in other cities want to see? Johan Santana? David Wright? Jose Reyes? Although they're all good players, they no longer have the superstar label attached to them. Fans don't stop what they're doing to see Johan throw another change-up and they don't rush back from the concession stands whenever Wright or Reyes step up to the plate.

The Mets haven't had a must-see, get back in your seat-type player since the early days of Doc Gooden and Darryl Strawberry. Until they bring up a can't miss phenom (something they don't currently have in their minor league system) or sign/trade for a potential Hall-of-Famer in the prime of his career, the Mets won't be appealing to fans on the road, especially if they continue to be a mediocre team. This brings me to the other reason.

The Mets are just not interesting enough for fans in other cities to come watch them play. Among the leaders in road attendance in 2010 were the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Giants, Rockies and Braves, all of whom either made the post-season or contended for a playoff berth. Two non-contending teams (Dodgers and Cubs) finished in the top five in road attendance, but those teams have huge followings nationwide and will draw fans on the road regardless of their won-loss record.

Teams like the Yankees, Phillies and Red Sox can boast recent success and teams like the Cubs, Dodgers and Giants have the history that attracts fans to the gates. The Mets can't claim either recent success or the long-term history that the other teams can.

Let's say the Mets are playing at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. A Pirates fan doesn't have much to root for on his/her own team, so he/she might choose to attend a Bucs game depending on the opponent.


If you were a Pirates fan, who would you rather pay to see? The perennial contenders from St. Louis, featuring the most complete hitter in the game, Albert Pujols? The cross-state rivals from Philadelphia, who have All-Stars wherever you look? The westerners from San Francisco, who can give you a Cy Young-caliber performance from Tim Lincecum and others? Or the New York Mets?

More than likely, that fan would choose any of the other teams listed above before choosing to see the Mets, especially if he or she is there to see players not dressed in Pirates uniforms.

Mets fans in New York are not going to come out to Citi Field in droves until management can put a competitive team on the field that will be playing meaningful games well into September and perhaps October. Similarly, if the Mets don't give fans in other cities a good enough reason to come out to the ballpark other than the promise of mediocrity and good, but not great players, empty seats will continue to follow them wherever they go.

Looks like the only place the Mets are making themselves at home is at the bottom of the road attendance figures.